Ray Ozzie, Microsoft’s outgoing Chief Software Architect, has some interesting reflections on the future of the PC as he steps down after five years.
His views on the mobile, pervasive always connected world and how the Personal Computer fits into it come at a time when there are real questions on how the Microsoft will fare in coming years.
Scoble’s article, based on an interview with Starbucks Chief Information Officer, Stephen Gillet, describes how laptop usage is falling as customers are moving to slate computers such as the iPad and smartphones. He also touches on how standards like HTML 5 are beginning to replace proprietary products like Adobe Flash and Microsoft Silverlight.
Is this necessary bad news for Microsoft? Perhaps not, but it what it means is they will have to reinvent the business away from the old, PC based, model of selling operating system licences.
That’s not to say it can’t be done, Bill Gates successful turned the entire company around to an Internet Explorer view of the computer industry shortly after the launch of Windows 95 as it became apparent the bet on the Microsoft Network was wrong and the open Internet was where the market was going.
One salient point that we should remember is the biggest businesses are not forever. In his post, Ray referred to the 1939 New York State Fair where one of the key exhibits was the S1 locomotive which was built by the Pennsylvania Railroad
At one stage the Pennsylvania Railroad was the world’s biggest listed company, it went a hundred years without missing a dividend payment and at one stage employed more people than the US government.
It ceased to exist in 1976.
No business is forever and even the most powerful is at risk during times of great change. We need to remember that when looking at today’s seemingly untouchable business giants.