This morning a graph appeared on the web from analytics site Asymco showing the stalling of PC sales and the rapid catch up of Android and Apple iOS systems.
Such graphs starkly illustrate how the industry is changing as people start using tablet and smartphones instead of their PCs but there are some caveats with making blanket comments about the death of the Windows based computer.
Sales are still huge
One important thing about the chart shown is it has a logrithmic scale – a doubling in height indicates ten times the sales.
That point alone shows just how massive the lead Windows had over 15 years from the mid-1990s, something that is shown in a previous Asymco chart.
Despite Gartner’s reported 1.4% fall in PC sales – the basis of the Asymco graphs – there are still 92 million personal computers sold each quarter so it is still a massive market.
Tethered devices
One of the weaknesses with smartphones and tablet computers is they are still tethered to the desktop. If you want to get the best experience from your phone or iPad you have to synch it with your home or office computer.
For the moment that’s going to continue for most users, but not forever and the extended life of PCs means customers are using older computers to connect.
Extended life cycles
A bigger problem for the PC manufacturers is the extended life cycle of personal computers.
Since the failure of Microsoft Vista, PC users have been weaned off the idea of replacing computers every three to five years and nearly half the market is using systems that are more than ten years old.
On its own that indicates fundamental problems with the Windows and PC markets for Microsoft and their manufacturing partners.
The irrelevant operating system
One of the effects of increased computer life cycles is that the operating system has become irrelevant. Customers no longer care about what they are using as long as it works.
This is one of Microsoft’s problems; the virus epidemic of last decade and various clunky versions of Windows Phones has left customers perceiving PC and Windows software as being clunky and buggy.
Not yet dead
While the PC market is now shrinking, it’s far from dead. There’s still a huge demand to cater for although the big growth days are over.
For manufacturers whose business model has been based on fighting for market share in a growing sector, they now have a problem. They have to identify profitable niches and generate innovative products.
Unfortunately for the PC industry, the market has moved on. Apple have captured the bulk of the high margin computer sector and the industry’s response of pushing “ultrabooks” to capture the MacBook Air customers isn’t going to resonate with consumers trained to buy cheap systems.
Watching the PC industry over the next five years will be fascinating. Some companies will adapt, others will reinvent themselves and many will fade away as they cling to a declining business model.
Despite the personal computer industry only being 30 years old, it’s already in decline which is something older industries should ponder upon.
Today’s devices are finally delivering the things computers were supposed to deliver 30 years ago – or al least what we wished they would. I welcome the end of the age of the PC which I will remember as a fun time when we thought we needed more and better things yet have since learned what we need and that is just things that deliver what they claim to.
Thanks Carsten, it’s worthwhile considering what we’ll wish our computer – or whatever replaces them – will do in thirty years time.