That the Internet of Things is posed to fall into the depths of the trough of disillusionment according to Gartner’s latest Hype Cycle should come as no surprise to those following the industry.
For the industry, such a fall might not be a bad thing. During the upswing to the Peak of Heightened Expectations technologies attract the hot, dumb money along with the motley collection of shysters and opportunists a gold rush always lured in by the prospect of easy returns.
When a product, technology or industry falls into what Gartner calls the trough of disillusionment it’s usually the time when its real value is discovered. Without the distractions of hype or dumb money distorting the market, the industry finds a way of using a product that’s become somewhat passe.
For the Internet of Things, it won’t be a bad thing if the sector tumbles into the abyss. The sooner it happens, the faster industry will figure out where the real value and benefits lie.
The only damage might be to some of the more prominent boosters’ egos and the hip pockets of some of the more over eager investors.
Here is why:
1) IoT is not new, but it is a large scale application applied to basically every domain of what we already have done and do at a much more restricted scale.
Some examples:
– shop inventory from goods entered to passing point of sales terminals (currently using barcodes so could be improved . . .)
– company asset inventory (currently using barcodes, so could be improved . . .)
– automated parkings using sensors on each parking spot (very old and very modern at the same time)
– Sushi restaurants using RFID equipped dishes and tablets with RFID reader for each customer
– RFID equipped passports
– . . . .
2) Don’t look for one company coming with ‘the solution’
IoT requires standards and a structuring of the market to develop further; current equipment is restricted to vertical applications, closed and still unnecessary expensive
3) Don’t look in the wrong direction:
breakthroughs will not come from Intel and the alike: i.e. their contributions are a prerequisite, but not sufficient for a breakthrough; these will more likely come from large users and users consortia: the retail industry, car manufacturers, the aeronautics industry are more likely to bring about such breakthroughs, and for two obvious reasons:
– they know better what is required
– they represent a significant and real market
BR,
Cees Lanting