Author: Paul Wallbank

  • Developing digital leadership

    Developing digital leadership

    Technology and talent are the biggest worries for CEOs today says Peter Sondergaard, Gartner’s Senior Vice President for Global Research, however those challenges are part of a much greater shift in business.

    In an interview at the Australian Gartner Symposium on Queensland’s Gold Coast, Sondergaard discussed how businesses and their senior management have limited time to adjust to a rapidly evolving marketplace.

    Sondergaard believes that companies have 24 months to face the changes which academic and futurist Andrew McAfee forecasts is going to overwhelm businesses and society in the near future.

    In this environment IT workers have a unique position in being responsible for implementing technologies within organisations, however according to Gartner’s research only 15% of CEOs see their tech teams as leading change within the organisation.

    “The transformation that a lot of people are grappling with is ‘how do I translate this into action in leaders?’” Sondergaard suggests. “Organisations have leaders in financial backgrounds and people who understand people management, leadership and customer facing activities.”

    “Businesses expect this in every senior leader hired in the organisation but somehow it’s okay to accept those people have their son or daughter do everything technology wise. In the future you can’t have that.”

    “Digital leadership is at par with all other assumed skills in what is a fully rounded business leader.”

    A generation change

    Sondergaard sees a generational change happening in senior management as the new guard are more comfortable with technology, having had to deal with the 1990s PC boom as well as the internet during their working lives.

    “The change generally happens when you switch CEO, it’s very funny to watch right now how new CEOs that come in, change the strategy completely and focus on digitalisation.”

    For many companies, this is a dramatic change in business practices and one that doesn’t come without resistance within the organisation, although the marketplace may force these reforms as margins fall.

    Changing focus as margins fall

    A problem facing managers that Sondergaard sees is the falling margins faced by businesses as new competitors unencumbered by legacy systems enter the marketplace.

    Most of these competitors bring the ‘startup ethos’ into their industries — with no fixed overheads the new entrants are far more flexible than the incumbent businesses.

    Stock markets are also making the problem worse with older businesses being held to different benchmarks than the new players.

    To illustrate this Sondergaard cites Amazon and IBM where are both staking their futures on cloud services that are barely profitable; for this IBM is punished by investors while Amazon continues to get stock market support.

    Owning the ethical risks

    Another challenge facing businesses in going digital are the ethical considerations, this is a complex and multifaceted area that is going to test managers throughout organisations as new technologies give rise to unforseen risks.

    “What does your brand want to stand for in a digital world?” Sondergaard asks, “I think we will need people who articulate the brand, and what we do from a technology perspective.”

    “Ethics in this is a very part of the user experience which becomes very complex very fast. If you don’t have someone who owns this from a co-ordination perspective I would say you get an element of risk that you don’t want.”

    For managers across all industries the challenge is to deal with the disruption that is happening now and the greater changes that are looming, Sondergaard believes this requires a ‘bimodal’ way of doing business that balances the needs of existing markets with the demands of a much more complex fast moving developing digital marketplace.

    This is a big task for managers and one that many will struggle with. Those who don’t succeed are going to struggle in a very turbulent business world.

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  • Creating a healthy society and economy in a time of disruption

    Creating a healthy society and economy in a time of disruption

    At the Australian Gartner Symposium conference today MIT researcher and futurist Andrew McAfee gave the day’s closing keynote on his book The Second Machine Age, a book written with co-author Erik Brynjolfsson “because we got confused” about technological change.

    McAfee’s message is that the rate of technological change is about to accelerate dramatically, that change is not going to be gradual but abrupt and businesses have to prepared for a very different world.

    Another of McAfee’s points is a decoupling between incomes and growth has happened around the world, particularly in the US, which has changed the assumptions underlying economic growth.

    US-productivity-GDP-employment-income-1953-to-2011

    Interestingly, McAfee’s chart shows US household incomes diverged from growth in the mid 1970s during the post oil shock stagflation predating the personal computer and internet booms.

    The breaking of the linkage between economic growth and incomes underpins the rise of the precariat — those with uncertain jobs and career prospects — which gave rise to Douglas Coupland’s Generation X.

    While the bulk of the pain in the last forty year’s disruption was felt by lower income and younger workers, the pain is now extending to the middle classes as described by Stephen Rattner in the New York Times.

    US-inequality-gets-worseThose changes are certainly not wholly attributable to technological change but as more jobs are lost to robots and algorithms, that process will accelerate.

    For McAfee, the challenge for business leaders and policy makers is to ensure growth and opportunities are evenly spread; “our job is to make smart choices to create a healthy society and economy.”

    How well we as a society manage this will define our times.

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  • The mobile payments industry has a USB moment

    The mobile payments industry has a USB moment

    Has Apple Pay legitimised mobile payments? It appears so, reports the New York Times. Since the launch of Apple’s payments service, Google and other mobile payment providers are claiming usage has doubled with customers exploring the systems.

    If this is true, it’s similar to how Apple legitimised the USB port in 1998 with the release of the iMac.

    Prior to the iMac the USB port was a bit of an oddity, on most PCs the sockets sat unused and the few devices available on Windows computers worked reliably, as Bill Gates himself found out during a live demonstration at the 1998 Comdex show.

    Unlike Apple Pay, the move to USB on Macs wasn’t welcome and it was a high stakes decision by Steve Jobs given that Apple’s existence was still precarious and its user base was still made up of largely of true believers who had been through years in the wilderness with the company.

    Those users also had many thousands of dollars invested in Apple Device Bus (ADB) devices, all of which became redundant with the move to USB. Many customers at the time swore this was the last straw and they would move to Windows PCs.

    Apple’s users didn’t carry out their threats and stayed with the company whose move to USB turned out to be a winner for the entire computer industry.

    For Apple USB’s success meant their customers were no longer locked into a proprietary technology, for manufacturers they were able to start moving off archaic serial and parallel ports while for Microsoft the shift meant a better range of more reliable devices — although their operating systems struggled with USB until the release of the far more stable Windows XP.

    It appears in this respect Apple Pay is repeating history in giving a boost to a technology that has been struggling to find traction in the market place.

    The difference this time is that the payments industry is a far bigger market with far more implications for the broader economy than the computer peripherals segment.

    If Apple raise the boat on payment systems, there are some incumbent businesses who are going to find themselves in a very different marketplace in five years time.

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  • Lessons from the G20 leaders meeting

    Lessons from the G20 leaders meeting

    This year’s G20 talkfest has come to an end with the usual communique of fine words.

    Apart from the discussion of climate change there’s little in the communique that wouldn’t have furrowed the brows of Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Regan thirty years ago with most of the pronouncement a being around opening markets, reducing unemployment and freeing capital.

    On the latter point, the call to reduce tax avoidance given this was an obvious consequence of the 1980s reforms would be met by with a rueful laugh from those responsible for the deregulation wave of the Reagan and Thatcher years given reducing taxes on corporations was one of the reasons for the ‘reforms’

    An aspect that would trouble Maggie’s and Ronnie’s ghosts would be the commitment to ‘address deflationary pressures’, something undreamt of in the 1980s, although a clear warning to today’s commentators and investors that Quantitative Easing is not going away any time soon.

    What today’s communique shows is the world’s leaders are still very wedded to the economic models of the Twentieth Century despite the massive demographic and technological developments changing our society.

    The real message from the G20 is don’t wait for your country’s leaders if you want progress; at best they probably won’t comprehend what you’re saying.

    Although if you can put your ideas in terms of creating growth or reducing youth unemployment then you might have a willing audience with your local minister, chancellor or President.

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  • Reframing the economic debate

    Reframing the economic debate

    “We need to stop the drift in politics and economics,” says Irish economist David McWilliams.

    McWilliams is talking about Ireland and asking where the nation goes for the next two decades as European agricultural support programs wind up and Irish tax advantages erode.

    That conversation though is one that every economy, every nation and every community needs to be having in the face of a rapidly changing world.

    Assuming that what’s working, or muddling along, today will be successful tomorrow is a brave belief.

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