Author: Paul Wallbank

  • Garbage In and Garbage Out

    Garbage In and Garbage Out

    UK tech site The Register reports that Google Flu Trends has been dismal failure with the service over-reporting the incidence of influenza by a factor of nearly 12.

    The reason for this problem is the algorithm used to determine the existence of a flue outbreak is that it relies on people searching for the terms ‘flu’ or ‘influenza’ and it turns out we tend to over-react to a dose of the sniffles.

    Google Flu Trends’ failure illustrates two important things about big data – the veracity of the data coming into the system and the validity of the assumptions underlying the algorithms processing the information.

    In the case of Google Flu Trends both were flawed; the algorithm was based on incorrect assumptions  while the incoming data was at best dubious.

    The latter point is an important factor for the Internet of Machines. Instead of humans entering search terms, millions of sensors are pumping data into system so bad data from one sensor can have catastrophic effects on the rest of the network.

    As managing data becomes a greater task for businesses and governments, making sure that data is trustworthy will be essential and the rules that govern how the information is used will have to be robust.

    Hopefully the lessons of Google Flu Trends will save us from more serious mistakes as we come to depend on what algorithms tell us about the data.

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  • Trusting technology and eliminating risk

    Trusting technology and eliminating risk

    As the search for missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 heads into its third week, a great deal of nonsense continues to be written about the flight and how its disappearance could have been prevented.

    One good example of the tosh that’s being written is this piece in The Conversation where UK Open University lecturer Yijun Yu declares that cloud based technologies would have helped us solve the mystery.

    While this may be true, Yijun’s article shows a deep trust in technology to solve all of our problems; in this case, insanely complex verification systems to ensure no-one is doing anything untoward.

    Yijun is correct that better inflight technology could have told us much about MH370s location, however he also illustrates how we’ve become a society that doesn’t understand risk as we look to our gadgets to save us when a problem happens.

    A cloud connected Boeing 777 probably wouldn’t have saved the souls on MH370 and ultimately it may prove that the technology wouldn’t have helped the searchers either.

    We simply don’t know until the plane is found and, hopefully, the flight data information analyzed.

    Despite the loss of MH370 air travel is safer than any other form of mass transportation and much of that is due to technology being cleverly applied.

    There’s no doubt there’s much to be learned from the current search, we can expect rules on inflight communications to be tightened substantially as a consequence, but we’ll never eliminate risk.

    In the meantime, we should join the families in praying for those lost aboard the aircraft and quit the silly theories.

    Image of Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 by Aldo Bidini via Wikimedia

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  • Building better horseshoes

    Building better horseshoes

    Twitter is considering dropping hashtags and the @ symbol reports Business Insider.

    Such a move, which would enrage the services’ loyal user base, is aimed at trying to spark the interest of inactive users after the company reported a lower than expected active user number in last quarter’s earnings report.

    Twitter’s user number have stalled with sign ups being an anemic 4% and the vast bulk of its registered accounts are inactive — if the service is to have credibility as a competitor against Facebook then it’s going to have a lot stronger growth.

    Comparing the service though to Facebook may be a mistake though, the two platforms being very different making facile comparisons between them dangerous.

    There’s also the problem that Twitter seems to be locked into an older advertising industry model; the company is obsessed about piggy backing upon television and big sporting events.

    It’s akin to nineteenth Century blacksmiths deciding the motor car was nothing more than a good way to deliver horseshoes.

    There is always the possibility that the ways of advertising on social media isn’t as lucrative as the broadcast industry. If may be that Twitter just isn’t worth what the stockmarket thinks it is.

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  • Apple’s long game

    Apple’s long game

    It’s always risky to make predictions about Apple, particularly when they are silly. The company plays a long game and isn’t known for panicked releases of me-too products.

    Time is ticking for Apple to announce an iWatch, say analysts is a good example of a silly prediction about Apple’s future products and something that’s quite rightly criticised by Daring Fireball’s John Gruber.

    As I’ve pointed out before, the watch market is tiny compared to the smartphone with the entire global wristwatch industry’s sales making up only one-seventh of Apple’s iPhone sales.

    Part of the problem with stories like CNBC’s is the tech media’s focus on consumer goods, particularly in the internet of things and wearable technology markets.

    Analysts like those quoted in CNBC’s story fall for this fallacy and overlook that the IoT market profits are going to come from the backend, B2B applications of the technologies.

    With Apple we’re already seeing this with iBeacon being deployed in sports stadiums and shopping centres – Apple’s recent partnership with United Airlines to provide inflight entertainment is another step towards locking up business deals.

    There’s no doubt those business deals will flow into the consumer market and an iWatch may well be part of Apple’s longer plan to lock customers into their products.

    However claiming Apple have 60 days to launch an iWatch is plain silly, particularly when you have a company with a track record of not being panicked into launching me-too products and playing the long game.

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  • Can the community secure the Internet of Things?

    Can the community secure the Internet of Things?

    As more devices become connected Cisco Systems hopes the security issues can be addressed by the developer community.

    “The Internet of Everything is not only turn every company into a technology company but its going to force every company to truly become a company that delivers security,” says Christopher Young, Senior Vice President of Cisco’s Security Business Group.

    Speaking at the Australian Cisco Live! Conference in Melbourne today, Young described how business is going to have to change the way it treats the data it collects from sensors.

    “Not just in consumer security,” continues Young. “If I’m using technology or I’m delivering a service that’s leveraging technologies like cloud or connected devices and creating information about individuals or organisations through these connected devices then a consumer or enterprise is going to expect a level of security.”

    Young sees three major ways that security is becoming more challenging for organisations; changing business models, a dynamic threat landscape and increasing complexity.

    The latter point is the area that focuses many executive’s attention in Young’s experience with audiences he speaks to nominating complexity and fragmentation as their greatest concern.

    “They get so many products and so many devices and so many tools and so much complexity they really don’t know, in so many cases, where to focus their efforts.”

    Young cites Cisco’s Chief Security Officer, John Stewart, that the most fundamental security defence is getting the basics right.

    Earlier this year at the release of the company’s 2014 security report, Stewart spoke to Networked Globe on how businesses are struggling with the complexity they face.

    “Even the most sophisticated and well funded security teams are struggling to keep on top of what’s happening,” Stewart said.

    This problem ties into the other areas that Young identifies, particularly the ‘industrialisation’ of the malware world.

    “We have more well funded, more innovated, more determined adversaries than we’ve ever had as an industry.

    “It used to be some high school kid in his room trying to infect a bunch of machines with viruses or some guy from Nigeria sending you an email asking you for a hundred bucks and he’ll give you a thousand bucks later.

    “The world we live in today has nation states and criminal syndicates and very well funded, very sophisticated attackers so hacking has become an industrialised activity.” Young says, “here’s supply chains involved, there’s support agreements written; the bad guys will even sell each other a contract.”

    Young’s views echo those of Sophos Labs’ Vice President Simon Reed who said last year that “now there’s money involved, there’s serious effort, the quality of malware has gone up.”

    Part of the solution Young sees involves getting the community involved which is the motivation behind the Cisco Security Challenge announced last week.

    “You can only just guess and imagine what all the different security challenges will look like in a world that’s just starting to get formed.”

    “Let’s get the community involved in trying to solve some of the problems that we know are going to be inherently introduced by IoE.”

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