Author: Paul Wallbank

  • Australia and the Dutch Disease

    Australia and the Dutch Disease

    This week sees the launch of the annual G’Day USA festival where Australian exporters and various celebrities extol the virues of the country across the United States.

    One of Australia’s success stories of the last decade has been Yellowtail Wines which carved a niche for Australian wines in the US in the same way Jacob’s Creek did a decade earlier in the UK.

    Today the Australian Financial Review reports that Cassella Wines, the maker of Yellowtail, is in breach of its banking covenants due to the high Australian dollar.

    Cassella Wines is another victim of Australia’s Dutch Disease infection.

    Dutch Disease owes its name to the Netherlands’ gas boom of the 1960s. By the early 1970s the strong Guilder damaged the rest of the Dutch economy which didn’t profit from extracting natural gas.

    Having sleepwalked into the Dutch Disease, it’s fascinating how Australia’s electorate, policy makers and business leaders are in denial about the effects as successful exporters like Cassella Wines struggle with a high dollar and accelerating costs.

    When commodity prices and the dollar turn, and they always do, its going to be tough for the economy to adapt as much of the industry capacity that was competitive at lower rates won’t be available to take advantage of the lower costs and to pick up the slack from a declining mining sector.

    For Australian businesses, the onus is on managers and proprietors to protect their organisations from the short term effects of a high currency and the medium term effect of a falling dollar pushing up the input prices of imports.

    In other words, getting costs down without becoming too reliant on offshored labour or suppliers. The companies that manage this are going to be very strong after the initial adjustment, but it’s a tough management task.

    While that task can, and will be, done by smart and hardworking leaders no-one should expect any recognition of the scale of this task from governments, media or business organisations who seem to be in denial of reality.

    The Dutch and Australian flags image is courtesy of Emilev through SXC

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  • Revolution and disconnected leaders

    Revolution and disconnected leaders

    China expert Patrick Chovanec has a provocative blog post on What Causes Revolutions, building upon the Financial Times’ description of how the Chinese Communist Party is struggling with corruption.

    In his article Chovanec quotes Richard Pipes’ Three “Whys” of the Russian Revolution which looked at how the fall of the Tsarist government was largely unexpected.

    This is true with the fall of all great regimes, in the late 1980s the idea that the Soviet Union would cease to exist within a decade was unthinkable.

    Chavonec quotes a key part of Pipes’ book;

    In 1982 [Pipes writes], when I worked in the National Security Council, I was asked to contribute ideas to a major speech that President Reagan was scheduled to deliver in London.  My contribution consisted of a reference to Marx’s dictum that, when there develops a significant disparity between the political form and the socio-economic context, the prospect is revolution.

    “A significant disparity between the political form and social-economic context” could be just as applicable to Western democracies.

    The Economist article makes a point about the French revolution “the widely accepted theory now is that the French Revolution was one of rising expectations that eventually could not be met.”

    As Stratfor’s George Freedman pointed out last week, a generation of Americans have expectations that are not going to be met. The same is true in Europe.

    While there’s no doubt the China’s political structures – like those in all totalitarian nations – are more brittle than those in established democracies, it might not be a good idea for those of us in the West to be smug and complacent about our own systems.

    Zapata image is courtesy of Ferferfer through SXC.

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  • Can media salespeople think digital?

    Can media salespeople think digital?

    The future of journalism is bleak if sales teams can’t figure out how to sell ads on news sites.

    Eighteen months ago News Limited, the Australian print arm of News Corporation, put out the first indications that content was going behind a paywall.

    This was always going to be controversial so a softening up process was put in place including the then head of News Digital Media, Richard Freudenstein, speaking at various conferences.

    Inviting bloggers to a briefing on News Limited’s online future was another strategy which, predictably, resulted in varying views on the prospects from attendees like Laurel Papworth and Ross Dawson.

    Another part of the process was Freudenstein penning the odd article for The Australian describing the rationale behind the paywall.

    “And we will have completely solved how to sell advertising across print, tablet and digital.” Freudenstein said at both the end of his Australian article and a later Q&A at the Mumbrella 360 Conference.

    Sadly this appears not to have been the case, a year later News was struggling with digital revenues.

    This is not just a problem for News Limited or Australian publications, The Economist looked at the struggles of print media in 2012 and cited a graph from Reflections Of A Newsosaur showing how newspapers’ digital revenues have been flat lining for nearly a decade while their print revenues collapse.

    digital advertising revenues have been flatlining for decades

    One of the reasons for traditional media’s stagnation is their salespeople have been bought up selling newspaper display ads, are locked into antiquated KPI’s and have commission structures that reward print over digital.

    This was bought home to me a few weeks after News Limited started its charm offensive at a presentation by Cumberland Press, News Limited’s suburban division, where the salesman told a room of small business owners about the range of print advertising products available in the local newspapers.

    Not once was True Local, News Limited’s Google Places competitor, mentioned. When I asked about it, the salesman waved the idea away and said he’d throw in an annual sub if I took out a week’s worth of quarter page display ads in the Manly Daily.

    Many of the small business owners in the room thought that was a good deal, which shows its not just newspaper managers who are having a digital steamroller running over their revenues – but that’s a post for another time.

    As The Economist and Newsosuar shows, News Limited’s experience in selling digital advertising is the norm and it’s genuinely shocking that newspapers’ digital revenues have flatlined while the revenues of Google and other online advertisers soar.

    When News Limited announced its new strategy they also announced a community site to discuss the issues of digital news gathering and online advertising. They called it The Future of Journalism.

    Just over a year later The Future of Journalism site looks like this;

    the future of journalism is gone according to News LimitedThat’s a dismal view of the future of journalism but it’s pretty accurate if somebody can’t figure out how to sell ads on news sites and break newspapers out of their online advertising stagnation.

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  • Proudly designed in Gyeonggi

    Proudly designed in Gyeonggi

    “Designed by Apple in California ” is the boast on the box of every new iPad or Macbook. That the slogan says ‘designed’ rather than ‘made’ says everything about how manufacturing has fled the United States.

    Last year the New York Times looked at Apple’s overseas manufacturing operations, pointing out that even if Apple wanted to make their product in the the US many of the necessary skills and infrastructure have been lost.

    Now the US is facing the problem that Asian countries are looking at moving up the intellectual property food chain and doing their own designs.

    In some ways this is expected as it’s exactly what Japan did with both the consumer electronics and car industries during the 1960s and 70s.

    The big difference is that Japanese manufacturers travelled to the US and Europe to study the design and manufacturing methods of the world’s leading companies. In the 1990s and 2000s, the world’s leading companies gave their future competitors the skills through outsourcing and offshoring.

    In the next decade we’ll see the latest consumer products coming with labels reading “Designed by Lenovo in Fujian” or “Developed by Samsung in Gyeonggi”.

    For western countries, the question is what do we want to be proudly be putting our names to?

    Image from Kristajo via SXC.HU

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  • Saving Hewlett Packard

    Saving Hewlett Packard

    This site has previously looked at the massive task facing Meg Whitman as she tries to rebuild Hewlett Packard and undo the mis-steps of the company’s previous managerial failures.

    Bloomberg Businessweek goes further with a deep analysis of what went wrong for HP over the last two and Whitman’s challenges in rebuilding the business.

    HP’s decline starts with the biggest mis-step of Carly Fiorina, one of Whitman’s predecessors, in selling off HPs instrumentation business in 1999.

    Power in the instruments

    Industrial instruments were the core of HPs business, generations of engineers and scientists knew and trusted the HP brand which was synonymous with high quality, cutting edge technology.

    The proof of the instrument arm’s strength is in the subsequent share performance of the spun off company – today Agilent trades at $43 while HP wallows at $15, half of what it was worth in 1999.

    Making matters worse for HP was buying into the personal computer industry just as Dell and Gateway were commodifying the market. Fiorina’s high spending ways left Hewlett Packard incapable of competing against the lean operations of their nimbler competitors.

    In many respects Fiorina’s successor Mark Hurd is the IT sales guy from central casting; aggressive, an excellent eye for numbers, intolerant of (other peoples’) wasteful spending and an ego the size of Uranus.

    For HP he had some good points, making executives directly responsible for their division’s performance and cutting out management consultants. Anyone who shows Bain & Co or McKinsey’s the door, is not a wholly bad guy.

    Cutting costs in the driver business

    In cutting costs Hurd was ruthless – the Bloomberg story tells of how he cut HP’s driver division from over 700 to 64 staff. This in itself was not a bad thing.

    Those who worked on HP products remember that period well. The software that came with Hewlett Packard equipment was buggy and overblown and Hurd’s reforms bought in a real improvement as drivers went back to being simple and effective.

    Cost measures though also showed in HPs products and after sales support – increasingly the company resembled Dell during the dark days of Dell Hell where buyers of shoddy equipment found themselves dealing with poorly trained support desks over low quality phone lines. Customers started to flee HP products.

    The perils of stack ranking

    At the same time Hurd was using the crudest management technique of all – stack ranking, the practice of culling the bottom ten percent of workers each year.

    Vanity Fair’s 2012 expose of Microsoft’s decline infamously blamed stack ranking for much of that company’s woes. The problem being that defining the bottom 10% of a team invariably involves politics and staff become more obsessed with currying favour with their managers than shipping good products.

    People like Steve Ballmer and Mark Hurd like stack ranking because they thrive in that environment. The paradox is that characters like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg tend to be culled.

    HP, and Microsoft, needed more geeks focused on shipping new products than political animals like Hurd and Ballmer but that’s not what they got.

    While Hurd met his financial targets, HP’s position was becoming more fragile as cranking up margins on services and printer cartridges while slashing costs on PCs and hardware can only go so far. His implosion over his royal lifestyle was probably one of the best timed exits in corporate history.

    It’s worth reflecting on Hurd’s management excesses as he slashed expenses for the lesser beings in his company, you can browse a list of his expenses at The Street. In this respect alone, Hurd personified the entitled managerial culture of modern western society.

    Replacing Hurd with the quiet Leo Apotheker made sense in that the new CEO was the opposite to his predecessor, but just as he didn’t have Hurd’s ego he was also a dud who made strategic mistakes and let costs begin to slip.

    In replacing Apotheker Meg Whitman has massive job ahead of her, an important part of getting HP on track is slimming down management ranks to make the company more nimble. That in itself is a big task.

    The biggest task of all though is to recapture HPs position as being an innovative leader with high quality products. Over the Fiorina and Hurd years that position was squandered and replaced by companies like Cisco and Apple.

    Right now it’s hard to see where HP can re-establish itself in the marketplace but the goodwill towards the company from a generation of engineers who were bought up believing Hewlett Packard means quality means the company has a chance.

    Hopefully Meg Whitman is the right person to seize those chances and undo fifteen years of bad management.

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