Author: Paul Wallbank

  • Creative Quandaries

    Creative Quandaries

    In February, musician, coder and uber-geek David Lowery gave a talk to the SF Music Tech Summit on the difficulties musicians have making money in the online economy.

    Meet the Old Boss, Worse Than The Last Boss is an excellent dissection of the economics of the music industry as it currently stands – and it doesn’t look good for artists.

    David shows how the old distribution model was more rewarding for artists than today’s digital model, the old fashioned record store has largely gone out of business and has been replaced with the iTunes where Apple receive half the income of the local shop but assumes no risk, few costs and a far greater profit margin.

    Similarly, the record labels’ costs and risks haven’t substantially changed but their income has plummeted.

    We’ve seen the controllers of the music distribution business replaced with a far smaller, and more profitable, group of digital gatekeepers.

    A  great line in David’s presentation is just how much money technology company executives are making compared to their record industry counterparts of the 1980s, without taking on the responsibilities for keeping the creative supply pipeline flowing.

    Record labels value content and content creators. Sure they kept a lot of money for their executives (although even mid 90?s music executive pay is dwarfed by tech executive pay.)  But record labels unlike tech companies, know they built  their businesses on those who create content.  Therefore when they were flush with cash they set out to buy the services of as many artists as they could.  This  had the effect of sharing the wealth with musicians.  It may have been uneven it may have been wasteful, it may have not touched every artists and the labels may have pocketed most of the revenue but at least they felt they needed to give something back to the content creators.  They knew artists created something of value.

    The key words in the above passage are “content creators” as the struggles of the music industry are similar to those of writers, photographers and anybody creating original works that can be digitized.

    Probably one of the most interesting aspects of this are that many of the digerati David criticises for their utopian views on technology are themselves marginalised, and often impoverished, by the same economics.

    David links to a number of Huffington Post articles examples, yet it’s Adrianna Huffington and her contemporaries like Chris Anderson who are aggregating paid writers work and turning most of us into digital sharecroppers.

    It’s the Lords of the Digital Manor who are making a return while the bulk of content creators struggles.

    Those digirati, like myself, are making just as poor a living from their work as David’s friends in the music industry.

    What’s clear is we have to find the methods of distributing music and other valuable creative works that benefit the artist or writer, the old models of the publishing, broadcasting and music industries did this – not always fairly, but at least creators were rewarded.

    Right now we’re in a world where information is free and a small group of gatekeepers are controlling what revenues are available.

    It’s unlikely that situation is sustainable and over time we’ll see new models develop to displace the current gatekeepers who may be part of the transition effect to a changed economy.

    The person who figures out the successful model will be the 21st Century’s Randolph Hearst – hopefully they’ll spread the wealth around a bit more than the current gatekeepers.

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  • What do we call the long term?

    What do we call the long term?

    Yesterday Optus launched their revamped business services under the banner of Optus Vision.

    As part of the launch, the telecommunications company released their Future Of Business report complied by Deloitte Access Economics.

    In discussing the details, economist Ric Simes of Deloitte Access made some observations on what drives businesses in adopting digital technologies. Ric broke it down into management time horizons.

    Short term: Economic uncertainty is no excuse for ignoring digital strategies.

    Medium term: Companies start using digital technologies for competitive advantages.

    Long term: Structural change disrupts industries.

    On asking Ric what his definitions of short, medium and long terms are, he said “1-2 years”, “3 to 5” and “beyond five years”.

    The interesting thing with this is that for most industries the long term has arrived, in fact it’s been with us for a decade. It’s just many managers and investors haven’t noticed.

    John Maynard Keynes once said, “in the long run we are all dead.”

    For some industries that long term disruption has happened and their business models have died – it’s just that managers haven’t noticed they are dead.

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  • You’re doing it wrong

    You’re doing it wrong

    Earlier this week Smartcompany released the results of their 2012 business technology survey. One of the things that stood out was less than 30% of businesses are happy with their online results.

    Almost certainly this is because most businesses diving into social media are doing it for marketing or advertising reasons – so they expect to make sales shortly after they start posting updates.

    While social media can be a good marketing tool, it’s almost always time intensive and often it doesn’t work at all.

    For most businesses social media is much more useful as a market intelligence tool or a communications channel.

    Talking to your customers and helping them with their problems is probably the thing social media does best.

    While it can be argued that good customer support is the best way to build a brand and market a business, that’s a major change in thinking for many organisations.

    If you think social media is all about marketing – or customer support isn’t about your business brand – then you’re doing it wrong.

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  • Does Facebook’s float mark social media’s peak?

    Does Facebook’s float mark social media’s peak?

    After its successful float on Friday, social media giant Facebook’s stock is now 18% down on the IPO price and there are claims some investors were aware of revised analyst expectations shortly before shares went on sale.

    Facebook’s share price isn’t being helped by large advertisers, most notably General Motors, publicly expressing their dissatisfaction.

    In SmartCompany’s survey on business tech use, one statistic that stood out was that less than 30% of businesses were happy with their returns on social media.

    Facebook can’t even win in the courts with a Californian magistrate throwing out the social media platform’s trademark case against a Norwegian pornography site.

    It’s been clear for some time that the tech industry has been in an investment bubble and social media services have at been the centre of that hype .

    The huge expectations of Facebook’s float value has been one of the drivers of Silicon Valley’s investment boom – a dangerous feedback loop in itself.

    So now Facebook’s share price is in decline and angry investors are asking “why” and demanding answers from advisors and banks.

    The real question though is does Facebook’s float mark the peak of the current tech boom in the same way AOL’s merger with Time Warner in January 2000 marked the peak of the original dot com mania?

    One of the great similarities with the original dot com mania is the businesses’ failure to make money from their services – today’s Pintrest and Twitter have that much in common with the great Dot Com boom debacles of Pets.com and Boo.

    The biggest problem with the social media services is most of them are advertising dependent. As we see from General Motors’ dissatisfaction and that of the businesses in the Smart Company survey, most businesses aren’t happy with the performance of social media platforms.

    Getting the advertising, or other revenue streams, right is key to the survival of these services. Google cracked this after the original dot com boom and are now one of the most successful companies ever.

    The companies that figure out the revenue models for social media, or online news, will be the next Google’s and Facebook could well be the business that cracks the code for social media.

    For the social media industry overall, it appears the sector is now at what Gartner calls the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” on their hype cycle.

    The next stage from the peak is the tumble into the “trough of disillusionment” and that appears to be where Facebook is heading.

    As Gartner points out, that trough is also where good, stable businesses are built. While the sector or technology is scorned, those who survived the tumble out of fashion are able to consolidate and learn from the harsh lessons they’ve received.

    Eventually the market rediscovers the technology or industry and eventually becomes accepted as a mature part of business or as Gartner put it, they enter the “plateau of productivity.”

    This is exactly the process Amazon went through during the dark days of 2002 and 2003 after the tech wreck which today finds them as one of the Internet’s giants.

    Whether Facebook can emulate Amazon or Google is for history to judge, but social media’s falling out of favour is not a bad thing, the wreckage of the current tech mania will see much stronger and viable social media businesses that will deliver real value to industry and society.

    In the wreck of the dot com boom we saw HTML “coders” reduced from driving Porsches to driving buses, the same thing will probably happen to many of today’s social media experts. That in itself is not a bad thing.

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  • The View From The Cloud

    The View From The Cloud

    I’m presenting View From The Cloud this afternoon where we look at the results of SmartCompany’s technology in business survey.

    The results are interesting, with nearly half the respondents saying they don’t use any cloud services.

    Almost certainly, those respondents are wrong – they don’t realise many of the things they do on the web are cloud based. The 9% who nominated “they don’t know” are closer to the truth.

    Those “unknown unknowns” are the big challenge for business managers and owners – those who think cloud computing isn’t being used in their organisations don’t know what their staff are up to with their laptops and smartphones.

    Of those who are knowingly using cloud computing services, over two-thirds said they did so for the flexibility while just under a half appreciated the cloud services’ ability to grow with their business.

    An encouraging aspect of the survey is how only a quarter of the respondents nominated price as being the reason for adopting cloud services.

    This is an aspect of selling cloud computing services that has worried me for a while, that companies are commoditising their market by giving away free – or insanely – cheap services.

    As always, price doesn’t drive the good customers and this survey illustrates that. Provide a good service at reasonable price points and the customers will come.

    Business respondents also illustrated a mature attitude towards risks with cloud service with 61% concerned about data safety and half of that number worried about access issues.

    An interesting part of the threat response was that 17% had other concerns about cloud technologies – including being tied to one vendor.

    This is an interesting attitude which indicates people don’t understand the degree of vendor lock in that already exists in the computer world and why the majority of businesses are using Windows computers running Microsoft Word. If anything, cloud services are far more open than boxed software.

    Vendor lock in though is a real concern and something that all cloud computing users should check before they, or their business, becomes too dependent on any one software package, consultant or online application.

    Overall, the SmartCompany business technology survey is an interesting snapshot of where business is today with emerging trends and services. Join us at 12.30 to discuss the results.

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