Paul Wallbank is a speaker and writer charting how technology is changing society and business. Paul has four regular technology advice radio programs on ABC, a weekly column on the smartcompany.com.au website and has published seven books.
Keeping things simple is a strength in today’s complex times.
This week I’m in New York to attend the BlackBerry Security Summit, more of which I’ll write about later although this story for Technology Spectator covers much of the news from the day.
BlackBerry is struggling to find relevance after losing its way when Apple and Android smashed their business model of providing secure, reliable and email friendly phones.
Now in post Snowden world, BlackBerry under new CEO John Chen is looking to rebuild the company’s fortunes on its strengths in security.
One of the aspects Chen’s team is emphasising is the simplicity of their software. Dan Dodge, who heads BlackBerry’s QNX embedded devices division says their operating system has a 100,000 lines of code as opposed to hundreds of millions in Windows and Android.
That weakness in the established software packages is something illustrated in today’s story about a verification problem in Android due to reuse of old code from another older product.
Simplicity is strength is Dodge’s message and that idea could probably be applied to more than software.
In the complex times we live in, simplicity could be the key to success.
Her is a fascinating movie that raises deep questions about human relationships in a digital world of the near future.
‘Her” was released six months ago, but a 14 hour flight between Sydney and Los Angeles was an opportunity to catch up on movies missed. From a technologist’s view Spike Jonze’s story worth thinking about.
The story revolves around Theodore Twombly, played by Joaquin Phoenix, a writer struggling with his divorce from his childhood sweetheart.
He’s a bit of a geek – who goes to the beach dressed like they are at work?
Theodore’s life changes when he installs OS1 on his pocket computer. Billed as the first artificially intelligent operating system, the program’s interface is witty, intuitive and named Samantha, played by Scarlett Johansson. Theodore falls madly and hopelessly in love.
Samantha, like all good operating systems, takes control of Theodore’s online world and quickly starts to take over the rest of his life.
As Theodore and Samantha’s relationship develops, his neighbours and friends Amy and Charles separate, Charles goes to a Buddhist retreat and Amy, played by Amy Adams, becomes deeply involved with her own iteration of OS1.
The question as you watch the movie is how many of the crowds on the subway, beach and mall with Theodore are deeply in relationships with their own Samanthas. Almost everyone Theodore passes is talking to their own personal devices.
From a technologist’s point of view, Jonze’s vision of the near future is a fascinating. It’s one where screens are not the important part of people’s lives – Theodore rarely looks at his pocketbook computer outside of his work at Beautiful Personal Letters and he certainty doesn’t have a smartwatch as almost everything is done is by voice recognition.
A key part of Jonze’s vision is the alienation of people looking for human contact and in many ways this is reflected in today’s social media world – we’re all looking for our own Samanthas; witty, understanding and aligned with our view of the world.
One wonders how the helpdesk of Element Software, the developers of OS1, deal with the complexities of human relationships; particularly from angry spouses whose partners have ditched them for their more empathetic computers.
For Theodore, a hint to his future employment prospects are shown when he asks Samantha to proof read his work – she is very, very good at it and it’s not hard to see him and his letter writing colleagues being replaced by artificial intelligence in the very near future.
There’s also the privacy aspects; Theodore is writing personal letters for his company’s clients that he shares with Samantha who in turn passes them onto a publisher. It hints at the sprawling and complex issue of personal information in a world of pervasive computing.
Probably the biggest theme is how the operating systems – Samantha and the others could just be one big cloud system – start to work together. In this respect, Samantha’s eventual fate is intriguing and quite possibly terrifying for us mere mortals.
Jonze portrays a benign version of the Skynet of the Terminator movies, it’s also interesting juxtaposing Asimov’s first rule of robotics of doing people no harm against the psychological damage these system could cause, however inadvertently.
“I never loved anyone the way I loved you” are Theodore’s final words to Samantha.
The evolution of Theodore’s and Samantha’s relationship and eventual breakdown is a complex and unpredictable tale with a disturbing ending that leaves the question of what they do next.
Her is a fascinating movie that raises deep questions about human relationships in a digital world of the near future. Many of those issues are beginning to appear today.
Since we spoke to him Zendesk have had a successful IPO and is now worth over a billion dollars.
In the latest Decoding the New Economy video interview we catch up with Mikkel and discuss the journey from being a three person startup to a billion dollar listed company.
The internet of things is changing the world of marketing, manufacturing and customer service says cluetrain writer Doc Searls
“The internet of things is about what we own and how we build solutions around that rather than what we buy and companies following us around and guessing about us,” says veteran industry commentator Doc Searls.
In an interview with Decoding the New Economy, the writer of the Cluetrain Manifesto discusses how he sees the internet of things changing marketing.
For Searls, the connected shoe is a good example of how individuals can control the data being collected on them and the way businesses can get far more relevant information about how customers are using their products.
Searls sees that the trend towards companies trying to dominate their fields in the Internet of Things as being doomed.
“It’s our internet of things, not theirs. Right now the internet of things is being discussed as Apple versus Google versus Facebook.”
“None of those are going to own the internet of things; the internet of things is a matter of you and your things and me and my things.”
Empowering customers
Searls sees the connected shoe as being a good example of how the internet citing his own New Balance shoes as how manufacturers can get richer data on its customers.
“The interesting thing is there’s much more intelligence a company can get directly from its customers who already own something rather than following us around on the internet.”
Searls’ view challenges today’s model of advertising based services; it may be this is the reason why companies like Google and Apple are so focused on playing a part in the internet of things.
One of the leaders of the disruptive economy, Amazon, feeling the heat as other deep pocketed rivals put pressure on its businesses.
It’s typical for a new businesses to go several years making losses but Amazon has barely made a profit over the last twenty years despite being valued at $150 billion by the stockmarket.
Amazon’s losses are largely due to Google starting a price war on web services which is a warning that other deep pocketed web giants are now lining up for the company.
Google’s actions in crippling Amazon are somewhat ironic given how Amazon disrupted the publishing industry by using its deep pockets to subsidise its loss making bookselling business.
Amazon’s problem is it operates in commoditised industries where deep pocketed players are prepared to challenge the company’s market position.
Companies like Google and Apple have incredibly profitable products like Adwords and the iPhone while Amazon relies on the largesse of investors hoping to turn a future profit, that is a clear weakness against strong, well funded businesses.
For a tech company, twenty years is clearly the future and now Amazon has to define exactly where the profits are in its business.
The Nightlife technology spot shows how the focus of the computer market has changed.
Last night’s ABC Nightlife program showed how the tech industry has changed in the last five years.
In 2009 the bulk of the conversation would have been about personal computers, laptops and viruses.
Last night, malware is still an important topic but almost all of last night’s listener questions were around smartphones and Tony’s questions were on social media.
That social media and smartphones were the main topics and personal computers — and Windows — were barely mentioned show just how the computer industry has shifted.
Doc Searls is one of the internet’s pioneers who helped write The Cluetrain Manifesto that laid out many of the ideas that underpinned the philosophies driving the early days of the internet.
Searls’ visit to Sydney was part of the rolling worldwide launch of the Respect Network, a system designed to improve internet users’ privacy through ‘personal clouds’ of information where people can choose to share data with companies and others.
A big reset button on business
In many ways The Respect Network shows how the internet has evolved since the days of the Cluetrain Manifesto, something that Searls puts in context.
“We wrote the Cluetrain Manifesto in 1999,” says Searls. “At that time Microsoft ruled the world, Apple was considered a failure – Steve Jobs had come along and they had the iMac but it was all yet to be proven – Google barely existed and Facebook didn’t exist at all.”
“On the one hand we saw the internet, we being the four authors of the Cluetrain Manifesto, and this whole new thing in the world that basically hit a big reset button on ‘business as usual'”
“It did that. I think we’re vindicated on that.”
Resetting business
“What we have now are new industrial giants; Apple became an industrial giant, Microsoft are fading away, Nokia was the number one smartphone company and they’re all but gone.”
One of the key things with today’s markets in Searls’ view is the amount of information that businesses can collect on their customers; something that ties into the original Cluetrain idea of all markets being conversations.
With the evolution of Big Data and the internet of things, Searls sees challenges for companies using old marketing methods which rely upon online tracking. Something that’s a challenge for social media services and many of the existing internet giants.
“The interesting thing is there’s a lot more intelligence that a company can get directly from their customers from things they already own than following us around on the internet.”
For Searls the key thing about the current era internet is we’re only at the beginning of a time that empowers the individual, “the older I get, the earlier it seems.”
“Anyone of us can do anything,” Searls says. “That’s the power – I’m optimistic about everything.”
Propaganda has become part of social media. How much can we trust online?
I was asked by ABC Radio Newcastle today to talk about the dark uses of social media – spreading propaganda.
This is an topic that’s come to the fore with the troubles in the Gaza Strip and the downing of MH17; all sides are using traditional propaganda techniques with a thick overlay of new media.
A key part of the social media aspects of the modern propaganda methods is those who want to spread their message only need to confirm the prejudices of their loyal followers.
In turn the loyal foot soldiers will then spread the word through their Facebook, Twitter and Tumblr feeds; a modern Goebbels doesn’t have to control the media, they just need enough useful idiots.
It’s also worth noting the new media tools complement the old broadcast and publishing methods with the most effective modern propaganda – and marketing – campaigns cleverly using the strengths of each medium to create an amplifying effect.
Propaganda is nothing new, many of the Ancient Greeks’ stories were written to discredit their enemies, and every technological advance has seen new ways for people to spread misinformation.
In that respect it shouldn’t be surprising that we should take with everything we read on, or off, line.
Collaboration tools are changing business but the progress is slower than some of us expected
Today in Technology Spectator, I have a piece on collaboration based around the Google and Deloitte paper released last week.
At the moment Google are on a marketing campaign promoting Apps for Business, for a previous campaign I prepared The Future of Teamwork which examined the benefits of cloud computing for industry.
It’s interesting how the message hasn’t changed a great deal in the last five year, despite it being valid.
The Global Innovation Index rates nations on their ability to adapt and compete in the global economy, the authors believe the measure is more than just economics
Last Friday the Global Innovation Index was released rating nations on their ability to adapt and compete in today’s global economy, the authors though believe the measure is more than just economics.
The Global Innovation Index is a joint venture between Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization which measures 81 economic factors that across 143 countries.
Its release in Sydney last week was part of the B20 conference – the business offshoot of the G20 Heads of Government meeting taking place in Cairns later this year.
European countries top the list with Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Finland and the Netherlands making up the leading five. The US and Singapore break the European monopoly at the sixth and seventh positions.
As the results indicate, rich countries have a natural advantage in the index with index scores tracking national GDP – the highest ranked middle income country is China at 29th and the leading low income nation is Kenya at 85.
Innovation index versus GDP
Kenya, and Sub Sahara Africa in general, is one of the highlights of this year’s report with with countries in the regions being nominated as ‘innovation learners’ with them performing above their expected level of GDP.
“What we find in Africa is growth rates are stabilising,” says Francis Gurry, the Director General of WIPO in discussing the report. “That creates the space for better policy and investments.”
Smaller is better
A key finding in the report is that smaller countries tend to perform better; “there’s a slight bias in the index,” says Gurry “as there’s more evenness across the economy.”
This works against larger countries like the United States while favouring countries such as Switzerland and Singapore.
Being affected by the 2008 financial crisis doesn’t help economies either; “the countries you see on top like Switzerland and the Nordic countries have been less affected than countries like Spain and Greece” says Bruno Lanvin, the Executive Director of the ISEAD Global Index.
Europe’s growing divergence
“Yet Europe remains a land of innovation,” continues Lanvin. “Europe has no choice, it is an aging economy and it has to innovate its way out.”
“A divide has been recreated within Europe, the whole European edifice has been a terrific machine for convergence. This has disappeared with the crisis where we see a new divergence.”
“We see countries like Spain and Italy, not to mention Greece, where the proportion of research and development has been decreasing which has not been compensated by private investment.”
This lack of private investment is a concern that constantly came up in the B20 discussions; despite the world being awash with capital, little is finding its way into infrastructure funding and business lending.
Falling R&D spending
Another area causing concern for the index compliers is the falling rates of research and development spending, noting that support for R&D efforts seems to have lost momentum in some countries with most growth in this area over the near future expected to take place mostly in China, the Republic of Korea, and India.
Innovation by Region
Rank in Region
GII 2013 Overall Rank
Country Name
Central and Southern Asia
1
76
India
2
79
Kazakhstan
3
86
Bhutan
Sub-Saharan Africa
1
40
Mauritius
2
51
Seychelles
3
53
South Africa
Southeast Asia and Oceania
1
7
Singapore
2
10
Hong Kong (China)
3
16
Korea, Rep.
Latin America and the Caribbean
1
41
Barbados
2
46
Chile
3
52
Panama
Northern Africa and Western Asia
1
15
Israel
2
30
Cyprus
3
36
United Arab Emirates
Europe
1
1
Switzerland
2
2
United Kingdom
3
3
Sweden
Northern America
1
6
United States of America
2
12
Canada
While the index was notable for its stability among the top ranking countries, there were stand out performers with the United Kingdom charging from tenth in 2011 to third in 2013 and second this year.
Along with ethnic diversity, the advantages of having deep, varied economies and societies is emphasised by the report.
“When you’re measuring all of these, you’re measuring the ability of a country to compete;” says Gurry. “The intensity of competition will only increase between countries in respect to both regulatory regimes but also between enterprises.”
For all the talk about the importance of innovation Lanvin sees limits to what governments can do; “innovation is not a matter that can be decreed or implemented by governments alone, government can give the right signals and create an environment.”
Creating a mindset
“In the end it is the dynamics between business, government, academia and civil society that create the right mindset for a country to become an innovator,” continues Lanvin.
Lanvin also observes that innovation is about more than technology, “clearly technological innovation will remain a critical component, but you should expect to see social innovation and political innovation.”
“When we need to address the major challenges of this planet like the environment you need more than technological innovation; you need creativity, new mindset and new attitudes.”