Category: economy

  • Are industrial hubs a thing of the past?

    Are industrial hubs a thing of the past?

    Since the beginning of civilisation, industry hubs have formed the basis of cities and regions, but is the internet removing the need for like minded businesses to group together?

    Tomorrow I’m at a breakfast featuring Porter Erisman whose film Crocodile in the Yangtze tells of the rise of China’s Alibaba and the adventures of its founder, Jack Ma.

    Jack Ma’s Alibaba is the eBay of manufacturing, connecting factories and buyers around the world. A visitor to the site can buy anything from childrens’ clothing to tractor gaskets, all cheaper by the container load.

    The rise of Alibaba tracks the development of sites like oDesk which bring skilled workers together. It’s becoming easier for businesses of all sizes to tap global workforces and supply chains.

    In the past, industrial hubs and cities have developed due to the proximity of workers, suppliers and materials. Today, it may well that with all the resources being a mouse click and a credit card away from an entrepreneur it’s no longer necessary for these hubs to develop.

    Whether industrial hubs do develop in the future will depends on individual sector’s needs for natural resources, face to face contact and short supply chains, but it’s worthwhile thinking whether location remains important for modern economic development.

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  • A difference in expectations

    A difference in expectations

    Could it be the age group set up for the most disappointment in today’s economy are the baby boomers rather than GenYs?

    The Wait But Why? blog has a provocative post on why Generation Y Yuppies are unhappy. It hasn’t gone down well with some prominent Gen Y writers.

    Part of the reason the article offended Gen Ys like Adam Weinstein is its focus on the younger generation having an entitlement mentality and feeling ‘special’.

    Were I a GenY I’d be pretty irritated at those views, particularly – as Weinstein points out – when younger folk are saddled with much greater debts and far less work security than baby boomers. Interestingly, Weinstein’s rebuttal makes almost the same points the Wait But Why blog from the opposite perspective.

    A mismatch of expectations

    Despite some of the provocative statements, the Wait But Why post makes a very good point about the expectations of different generations and the mismatch between what different age groups expect and the reality they encounter.

    The economic boomers – the group born from 1935 to 1955 – had the good fortune to spend most of their working lives during the post World War II period that saw the Western world experience the greatest economic boom mankind has seen.

    During their working lives, all but the lowest paid economic boomers became healthier, better fed and had more access to creature comforts than even royalty had a generation earlier. The average Westerner today is rich beyond the belief of our great grandparents a hundred years ago.

    As the Wait But Why blog contends, the result is the boomers are the happiest, most fulfilled generation we’ve ever seen.

    In contrast, GenYs are facing a far less fulfilling future in a lower growth economy that is far tougher and a society more focused on ‘user pays’, ‘cost recovery’ and outsourcing labour to the lowest cost provider than the greater good of the community.

    Can boomers continue to be lucky?

    While this is true of both Boomers and GenY, it’s worth questioning whether the Boomers’ happiness of exceeded expectations will continue.

    Today governments are cash strapped, almost pension scheme is underfunded and the demographic time bomb of an aging population has started to be felt across the developed world.

    Worse for the baby boomers is their retirement plans require their assets – primarily their homes, investment properties and small businesses – need to be sold at prices beyond what GenX and GenY buyers can afford.

    A reversion to the mean in asset prices for economic boomers means a lot of them will be going back to work.

    Recently I spoke to one economic boomer who had lost heavily after the global financial crisis. “No worries,” he said. “If need be I’ll get one of my old jobs back, I can still use a set square and drawing board.”

    Sadly, he didn’t understand that being good at using a set square and drawing board in a modern engineering office are as useful as making horseshoes or operating an electric telegraph. Those skills, while noble, are no longer necessary.

    While GenY will get on with adapting to the realities of their economic situation – they have little choice but to do so – the big challenge will be for their parents to deal with the modern economy.

    A new ‘Greatest Generation’?

    Perversely it’s likely the GenYs will turn out more like their grandparents who had to deal with a great depression and a massive World War.

    While hopefully the GenYs won’t have to deal with either of those, they are faced with a much different economy than the one which nurtured their parents.

    So the real ‘happiness deficit’ could turn out among the baby boomers in retirement at the very time in their lives they are least able to deal with it.

    Hopefully the GenY workers will be compassionate on their asset rich but cash poor parents and grandparents.

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  • Offshoring, the internet and the future of business

    Offshoring, the internet and the future of business

    One of the big changes in business over the past thirty years has been outsourcing offshore – offshoring – as labour markets around the world have opened, communications have become cheaper and trade barriers fallen.

    As the global war for talent accelerates, offshoring may be one of the ways many businesses deal with labour shortages in their home markets.

    For most of the last thirty years, offshoring was only really available to larger businesses who had the resources to manage overseas suppliers and service providers.

    With the internet becoming accessible services like eLance, Freelancer.com and oDesk started appearing that established virtual labour exchanges where smaller businesses could connect with individual contractors.

    As part of the Decoding The New Economy video series, I had the opportunity to speak to Matt Cooper, Vice President of Business Development & International at oDesk about how the global workforce is evolving.

    oDesk itself came about in 2005 when its founders Stratis Karamanlakis and Odysseas Tsatalos wanted to engage developers in their native Greece while working in North America.

    That project turned out to be a business in itself and now the company now has over three million freelancers registered with the service.

    Addressing the global skills shortage

    Cooper sees oDesk’s big opportunities in areas such as developers, e-commerce and customer service.

    “If you look globally there are very acute shortages in certain geographic areas and certain skills,” says Cooper.

    Looking ahead, the company sees new skills coming onto the market with larger companies adopting oDesk and similar services.

    “We’ll see new skills come onto the marketplace with increasing liquidity and depth with this longer scale of skills,” says Cooper. “We’re also seeing increased demand from enterprise companies. Of the 600,000 clients using oDesk have been traditionally small companies, entrepreneurs and startups. Now we’re seeing increasing demand from the enterprise companies.”

    Managing remote workers

    Regardless of the size of the company, managing a global workforce of freelancers presents challenges for management and Cooper has some advice for those businesses looking at engaging workers through his service.

    “Managing an online, distributed workforce is different to managing locally,” says Cooper. “You have to be much more specific, you have to document your expectation and you have to make the investment in getting your team up to speed.”

    One common problem Cooper sees with engaging workers through services is like oDesk is employers thinking they can throw their problems over the fence, “you can’t just throw your project over the wall and hope it comes back.”

    Cooper also suggests businesses “try before they buy” with engaging potential freelancers to do smaller trial tasks to see if they do have the skills needed.

    “If you need one person, hire three and keep one.” Cooper says, “create a very small and very discrete project that closely replicates the long term role that you want and see how they perform.”

    The threat to existing businesses

    Services like oDesk present a number of opportunities and challenges to industry, in some ways they threaten existing service businesses which have relied on providing skilled knowledge work to local markets.

    Now cheaper workers are to anyone with a computer and a credit card, there’s a fundamental shift happening in the small business sector.

    How the small business sector, and larger corporations, use services like oDesk and Freelancer.com while reacting to the threats these sites present to their businesses will determine how many of them will survive over the rest of this decade.

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  • An expensive place to do business

    An expensive place to do business

    Job search site Staff.com has an infographic showing the cost of setting up a startup business in selected cities around the world.

    Staff.com founder Rob Dawson looked at the cost of hiring two developers and one designer and paying rent on an office in eight cities around the world.

    Of the six Zurich came in the most expensive followed by Sydney, New York, San Francisco, London and Paris. Manila and Mumbai were obviously the cheapest.

    What Does It Cost to Run a Startup? Infographic
    Staff.com – Connecting Great Companies with Global Talent

    While the wages are the headline in this admittedly unscientific survey, the rents are a factor worth examining. If we arrange those cities by rents, then London jumps to the highest spot while Sydney remains second.

    Cost of renting in each city

    London 63,984
    Sydney 47,616
    New York 45,600
    Paris 38,400
    Zurich 36,000
    Mumbai 29,184
    San Francisco 22,080
    Manila 9,984

     

    This table illustrates a number of things; that Mumbai is a very uncompetitive location by Indian standards, being an app developer with a London startup is a miserable existence and that Australia is a very expensive place to do business.

    Last week at The Hub Sydney discussing the global workforce with O-Desk’s Matt Cooper, expatriate Aussie and founder of The Fetch Kate Kendall emphasised the high cost of doing business in Australia.

    “You don’t realise how expensive Australia has become until you get off the plane,” said Kate who pointed out the burden of massive mortgages mean labour rates have to be high so people can afford to meet their bank repayments.

    I’ve argued in the past that those high property prices are a form of economic cholesterol that sap Australia’s economic strength and these discussion illustrate that point.

    The bizarre thing is that Australian property prices are expected to go higher and, most worrying of all, the consensus among mainstream economists and business writers is that current levels are not overpriced at all.

    If we accept that the current high property prices are the long term normal for Australia, then the Aussie economy has a major adjustment to make.

    The problem for any industry that is internationally exposed, which is almost the entire service economy, is that Australian producers are hopelessly uncompetitive at current wage and cost levels.

    For startups the question is what value are they actually getting from being based in Australia and that is a question being asked by many businesses.

    Those deciding to stay in Australia are going to have to figure out how they can deliver high quality value from a cost base equal to Switzerland’s.

    At present most Aussie businesses are not prepared to deal with the problem and it’s a question that’s going to be faced by the nation’s workers, retirees and governments.

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  • Facebook and the Fax Machine

    Facebook and the Fax Machine

    The South China Morning Post reports the Chinese government is allowing access to otherwise restricted sites like Facebook to those in the Shanghai free trade zone.

    In many ways this parallels the original Special Economic Zones set up by the People’s Republic of China at the beginning of the 1980s – these areas’ separate legal, immigration and economic status attracted foreign investment and trigged the economic boom that’s seen China become one of the world’s biggest economic powers.

    Just as manufactured goods were the key to the nation’s development 30 years ago, today it’s information as the PRC leadership works on moving China up the global value chain.

    For a nation of knowledge workers to succeed, the workers have to have access to knowledge.

    It’s claimed the humble fax machine was responsible for the fall of the Soviet Union, how true that is open to debate but an open flow of information is never good for those who rule without the support of their citizens.

    With the explosion of Chinese social networking sites, it’s become harder for the government to control the flow of information between citizens and the opening of the internet in parts of Shanghai is another small change.

    How the Chinese Communist Party manages to keep the support of its increasingly affluent and better informed citizens will define the course of 21st Century history.

    As China shifts from being a low cost manufactured goods supplier to a more sophisticated, diverse and expensive economy the government has no choice to face these challenges.

    Beijing’s cadres would be hoping our children aren’t talking about Facebook in 2012 Shanghai in the same way that we talk of fax machines in 1982 Leningrad.

    Image of a fax machine courtesy of Kix through sxc.hu

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