Tag: Facebook

  • Has Facebook peaked?

    Has Facebook peaked?

    Could Facebook have reached its peak? A report in Bloomberg Businessweek suggests the service may have passed it maximum popularity.

    In a survey by consulting firm Frank N. Magid Associates, the proportion of 13- to 17-year-old social-media users in the U.S. on Facebook slipped to 88 percent this year from 94 percent in 2013 and 95 percent in 2012.

    What would really concern Facebook are concerns that the service is not safe, “One reason for the decline in teen Facebook usage is due to concerns that the service may not be trustworthy. Just 9 percent of those surveyed described the website as “safe” or “trustworthy,” while almost 30 percent of people said they would use those words to describe Pinterest.”

    For Facebook that loss of trust among younger users is it’s biggest threat. Once you lose the trust of a generation, you’ve lost your business. This trend is one that Facebook will need to address quickly.

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  • Facebook goes places

    Facebook goes places

    The relaunch of local discovery service Facebook Places was low key and remained un-noted until picked up by a German blogger this week.

    Facebook’s local service is, on first look, quite impressive with it pulling together various features and data sources to give a quick guide to what’s on and what’s attractive in a city based on a user’s history.

    In that respect it’s a clear threat to Yelp!, Tripadvisor and Google; particularly given the convenience of using a single app and getting recommendations based on the service most people spend the bulk of their online time upon.

    At this stage it doesn’t appear the service is doing too much with the local business feature but it’s only a matter of time before those details start being fed into the algorithm as well.

    Once again it shows why listings are important for local businesses. It may also be that Facebook is cracking the largely untapped local business market.

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  • Zuckerburg’s curse

    Zuckerburg’s curse

    Twitter yesterday released its third quarter 2014 results which saw the stock drop a stunning thirteen percent in the half hour after the announcement.

    For Twitter’s management and shareholders the worrying thing about the stock drop is the result was in line with analyst’s expectations, the shares fell because its clear the service isn’t getting the traction investors believe is necessary to succeed online.

    Investors however have only themselves to blame; as a business Twitter is simply not worth it’s thirty billion dollar stock market capitalisation; it may be worth five billion, it may be worth ten but it’s desperately overpriced at its current prices.

    Zuckerberg’s curse

    Almost all social media services, and many tech startups, are suffering the curse of Mark Zuckerburg — Facebook’s success has led investors to believe that all online businesses should be valued in the ten of billions.

    Making matters worse, Facebook’s billion dollar purchases of Instagram, Oculus VR and WhatsApp have baked the expectation of huge valuations into the startup community. Now every service with a modest user base believes it’s worth something similar to WhatsApp’s $19 billion.

    The worry is that companies like Twitter carry out dumb and ill advised things to emulate Facebook and maintain its overvalued stockprice which will damage both their brands and customer base.

    For many of these social media services it might be worthwhile admitting that they aren’t Facebook and accept they are a niche product.

    It may well be those niches are more profitable than being a mass market product and the idea that online success involves huge takeup is just another relic of the Twentieth Century broadcast model.

    Unfortunately while Facebook dominates the social media market and Google continues to draw most of its revenue from online advertising, the wild over valuations and flawed business models will continue.

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  • Social media’s fatal attraction

    Social media’s fatal attraction

    The story of Whisper and the betrayal of its users continues to roll on, but the real problem is the way social media services are desperately trying to recreate the dead business model of print advertising.

    Whisper’s problems with The Guardian continue as the company tries to salvage its reputation but the irony for the service is that it was trying to shoehorn its business to fit the print publishing model that the internet started to erode twenty years ago.

    It’s not just Whisper; almost every social media business from Facebook to Twitter wants to be an advertiser funded publishing company, just like the newspapers of thirty years ago.

    A few weeks ago I wrote about LinkedIn’s pretensions of becoming a publishing platform and this week Forbes tells of Pinterest’s adventures at the Cannes advertising festival as it sells its marketing services.

    Every social media service has some sort of angle that harks back to the golden age of newspaper publishing where print advertising was a deep river of gold. Most of them want to become publishers themselves.

    It would be hard to think of a service less suited to being a media company than Whisper; but then there’s Yelp whose main business of reviewing eating houses and bars seems to be totally at odds with newspapers of yore.

    On the Salesforce PayPal Media panel last week, Yelp! Founder Jeremy Stoppelman was asked if he saw the restaurant review site as being a media company, his response was “sure, it’s a blogging platform.”

    So we have new media aping the old media business models where these platforms try to lock users into information silos; in the same way that a London Times reader would never buy the Sun.

    The problem with that is the internet broke down the geographic barriers and today a Sun reader in London can just easily find celebrity gossip on TMZ and the broadsheet reader might find more thoughtful analysis in the New York Times.

    Certainly someone browsing the web for restaurant reviews might find a better site than Yelp while a bride researching wedding dresses could just as easily find ideas on Facebook as much as Pinterest.

    In reality, social media sites have nothing of the stickiness of the old fashioned newspapers in the days before the internet.

    Of the social media services it might be that Facebook is the best placed to succeed as an old media publishing service with its advertising smarts pushing messages to its diverse and deep user base but that isn’t certain given the widespread user dissatisfaction with its news feed.

    For the social media services much of the problem – -particularly for Facebook – lies in their contradictory aims; they are trying to be identity services, buying platforms, publishing services and advertisers.

    For publishers that balance between content and advertising was always a delicate one; and one that shifted over time. For online services that balance is far more complex and the future far less certain.

    One thing that is clear Is those contradictory aims aren’t going to be easy to reconcile and the quandary may prove to be insurmountable.

    What’s clear though are the advertising models of the future are still waiting for a David Sarnoff moment.

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