Tag: savings

  • Tracking the end of the consumer society

    Tracking the end of the consumer society

    I’m currently researching a presentation about the retail industry.

    One of the things that leaps out when researching consumer behaviour is the savings rate.

    For twenty-five years from the early 1980s to mid 2000s, the savings rate collapsed in Western economies; below are the US and Australian rates.

    The US Personal savings rate shows the rise of consumerism
    US Savings rates 1950 to 2020 – St Louis Federal Reserve
    How did the Australian savings rate fall during the consumer boom
    Australian Savings Rates 1980 to 2012 – Reserve Bank of Australia

     

    The graphs show the same thing; households spent their savings over the 25 years which drove the consumer economy. It’s no accident that period was a good time to be a retailer.

    Being on a deadline, I don’t have time to analyse these number further right now, but one thing is clear; most of the consumer boom from the Reagan Years onwards – or the equivalent from Maggie Thatcher or Paul Keating – was driven by households reducing their savings.

    That couldn’t last and didn’t. Businesses and governments that are basing their decisions on what worked through the 1980s and 90s are going to struggle in the next decade.

    Looking at these figures raises another suspicion – that graphs showing non-real estate investment by businesses and government would show similar declines over the 1980-2005 period.

    It might be that golden period of what appeared to economic success was just us living off society’s collective savings.

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  • Why cloud computing isn’t just about savings

    Why cloud computing isn’t just about savings

    “Billions of IT savings in the Clouds” trumpeted the Australian Financial Review last week in a front page article on cloud computing that claimed moving services online could “slash technology costs by up to 80 percent”.

    If nothing else, those lines lead any IT industry veteran to rise a wry eyebrow; a business that adopts a new platform, technology or vendor solely on the claim of massive cost savings is in for a world of pain, disappointment and heartbreak.

    There’s no doubt that cloud computing and software as a service are the IT industry’s growth areas and there are many benefits for the businesses that adopt these technologies. Reduced costs is one of the attractions, but it isn’t the only factor a businesses should consider.

    Other aspects are the flexibility of not locking yourself into specific hardware and technology platforms, reduced capital and labour commitments along with improved security, reliability and data protection.

    This last point is probably the killer reason why you shouldn’t be looking for 80 percent cost savings with any product. As we discussed a while back, to go onto the cloud you have to trust your supplier has the utmost competence and integrity. A provider who offers nothing but slashed costs will struggle to provide peace of mind.

    It’s likely in a few years time only the biggest of the biggest companies will have inhouse IT staff and servers as most business IT operations will run over the internet and through web browsers. Most businesses will think having IT staff on the payroll is as unusual as employing a full time plumber or electrician in the office.

    Although we probably won’t get to bank those savings — as we’ve found with the roll out of IT services in the last 20 years, new industries will develop that will soak up the labour and create new cost centres. While today’s services may be 80% percent cheaper, just as today’s computers and mobile phone are 80% cheaper than those of 20 years ago, we’ll be using other services and the price of those will soak up a lot of those savings.

    A bigger concern is for the cloud and software as a service industries themselves. If online services are identified as merely a cost cutting product, then these markets are going to be rapidly commoditised with a race to the bottom not dissimilar to what we’ve seen in the PC industry. Which will perversely mean security and reliability conscious businesses will keep their IT in house rather than risk it to a cheap charlie data service.

    History’s shown that selling and buying cheap in technology is a mug’s game. So don’t get seduced by claims of ridiculous savings with any technology; be it cloud computing, telecoms services or any other line item. All too often that cheap price or massive saving hides some nasty traps.

    Because of the compelling benefits cloud computing is the way businesses will go over the next few years but those who choose a platform simply because it appears 80% cheaper probably won’t be around to tell us about it.

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