Last week’s Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show illustrates the Hype Cycle we discussed just before the Christmas break. If there’s one thing for sure, we can say tablet computers, 3D televisions and Google phone are racing to see which will be the first to the “peak of inflated expectations”.
Funnily, we’ve been here before with mobile phones, tablet PCs and 3D entertainment so it will be interesting to see where these are in 18 months or so.
While it’s entertaining looking at the new gadgets, the interesting action is happening on the other side of the peak where real uses for technology and gizmos are found after the hype moves on to something newer and prettier. When the bored fashionistas move on from a product that’s no longer the newest and shiniest we see if something is genuinely useful or just a pointless fad.
Of all the predictions we can make for 2010 one good bet is social networking is approaching, if not past, the fashionable peak of the hype cycle. Particularly Twitter which we’ve seen pronounced dead by various writers over the break.
My favourite comment was from an weekend newspaper entertainment columnist stating the Twitter hype was driven by “Boring Old Farts Suddenly Discovering Technology” and the whole thing is now dead because an MTV host declared she was over Twitter. The Luddites are crowing that Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn and the entire Internet thingummybob can join CB radios in history’s discount bin of overhyped technology.
Citizens Band radio is a good lesson of what happens as a product moves through the hype cycle. In the mid 1970s peak, songs were being written about it and the media was awash with spookily similar stories of how CB radio was ushering in a new era of participatory democracy. Within a couple of years, the hype had passed and those who had a use for it, such as truckies, farmers and service people, got on with their work without the kids and newbies hogging their radio channels.
Exactly that process is happening now with the various online networking tools. The naysayers will crow they were right all along about a fad for boring old farts while unknown to them entrepreneurs will be figuring out ways to make money from these tools and smart businesses will be using them to stay ahead of their slower competitors.
As well as the trendies moving on, the social media snake oil sellers who’ve traded on the social media hype over the last two years will also move on to the Next Big Thing or go back to selling multi level marketing schemes. The honest consultants and genuine experts who survive the shakeout will be able to genuinely add value and help their clients achieve more with the tools.
So a product or technology passing the peak of the hype cycle is an excellent opportunity to use it do great things for your business without the fashionistas and snake oil merchants distracting you. Don’t be afraid to experiment just because the PR machines and fashion victims have moved on.
Paul
Great post – you said what needed to be said. Business is business. My clients talk to me about the same business marketing challenges that have existed for ages – more sales, reduce expense and retain customer base. The only thing that changes are the tools – in this case, social media and online networking – to more effectively and efficiently meet those outcomes.
The tools will come and go but the challenges will remain the same. The consultants/practitioners who are focused on measurable outcomes will be successful. The experts/gurus will become a notation in the online web archive records.
Cheers, Iggy
Thanks Paul for your insight.
The issue I see is this, real-time search will not go away. Twitter is the choice (at the moment) for real-time search results. Facebook still has a long way to go. It’s a speedboat versus Titanic situation.
The questions to ask these naysayers is these, are you using Twitter? for how long? and to what end?
It’s the equivalent of people in the stands watching a game of rugby without hitting the field yet understanding the nuances and rules of the game.
By the way, as you well know, CB radio is still more reliable than mobile phones in areas. Cheaper too. Kinda like Twitter versus mainstream news like CNN, Reuters. Tweeters are on the ground, reporters reporting what they say etc 😉
I couldn’t agree more. I’ve been thinking about the similarities (breaker, breaker) for some time. I do look forward to the “settling down” of the technology and the real use cases for business bcoming established. 🙂
oh paul you’ve hit the nail on the head – when I left my iphone in fiji foolishly twitter was great for staying in touch with my ‘colleagues’.. i’d also completely forgotten about the ‘cb radio’ – my geeky Dad had one and met a few likeminded people that he became good mates with – loved this post thank you!