Category: business advice

The death of the netbook

Is the cheap, ultra portable computer a dead product line?

“You don’t want to buy one of those of things,” said the electronics store assistant, “they don’t have much memory and the CPUs in the notebooks and ultra books are better.”

I was shopping for a cheap netbook for the kids, each of which had been saving up to buy one as they are sick of me yelling at them for playing Minecraft on my work system, and the consensus from the store staff was to do everything to steer folk away from the cheap systems.

This is understandable as most electronic store staff are on commissions, and these are lean on cheap computers. It’s much better to sell a thousand dollar unit – with upgraded warranties and accessories – than a low margin, one off unit.

For manufacturers, similar problems exists; these cheap unit cannibilised their higher priced products with better margins. Dell recently announced they are getting out the netbook market and others are following.

Netbooks themselves are in trouble as the market they addressed for cheap, portable, Internet connected devices is now largely covered by smart phones and tablets which offer better battery life and usability.

Interestingly, the battery life argument was even used by the computer store salesfolk who pointed out – correctly – that the newer laptops have better power management than their cheaper netbook cousins.

While the netbook as a category is dead; the concept itself isn’t. As the uptake of tablet computers like the iPad show, Internet connected portable devices are becoming the computer of choice for many people and the advantages of a laptop form factor; a proper tactile keyboard, USB ports and other external connectors are still attractive.

Probably the worse thing for the manufacturers and retailers is the price points are now established in customers’ minds – $400 is what people want to pay for laptops, which doesn’t bode well for those higher priced systems.

Those manufacturers can’t even get into the tablet computer market as Apple now own that sector that the PC vendors and Microsoft squandered a decade’s lead with substandard equipment and badly designed software.

Despite the best efforts of the electronic store’s salesfolk, my kids ended up buying cheap, low specced netbooks out of their savings and those systems run Minecraft quite nicely. Which is another problem for shops and manufacturers stuck with a 1990s business model.

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The year of the cloud

2011 was the year cloud computing took off.

This post originally appeared in Smart Company on December 23, 2011.

I was asked last week to join Stilgherrian and Jeff Waugh on ZDNet’s Patch Monday reviewing the year that was in technology. One of the things that came out of the session was much of what happened in the tech world over the last year was really a continuation of 2010’s trends.

That’s certainly true and the biggest buzzword in business tech for the last two years has been “the cloud”.

Over the last year we’ve seen a lot more providers getting on the cloud bandwagon with Microsoft responding to the Google Docs threat with their Office 365 product, MYOB launching Live Accounts, to respond to threats like Xero Accounting Software and Saasu and a whole range of vendors proclaiming they are ditching the desktop and moving onto the web.

Despite the hype businesses are slow to respond as they evaluate the various risks with moving to web-based services. Partly this is due to suspicion of the more outrageous claims such as “saving 80% of your costs by going onto the cloud” that have been peddled by some vendors.

A lot of that suspicion is fair enough, too. Many business owners – along with CEOs and government ministers – have been burned over the years by IT salespeople claiming big savings available if the gadget or software of the day is purchased.

Unlike corporate leaders and government minsters, the managers and owners of smaller businesses tend to learn from their mistakes and so they are waiting to see if the cloud services really deliver.

Eventually businesses will move a lot of their computing applications to the cloud as the cost-benefit equation is better for most services than running it in your own office as it eliminates the overheads of buying computer hardware and hiring some geeks to look after the things.

Given the real advantages of cloud services – not just in terms of cost savings but also in business flexibility, productivity, security and reliability – it’s worthwhile using the quiet January period to have a look at where your organisation can benefit from moving online.

Some of the other buzzwords like social media, collaboration and site optimisation are worth having a look at too. The holidays are an opportunity to see where these can be used better in your business.

One thing is for sure – next year you’ll be hearing more about cloud computing as vendors are gearing up for some big marketing campaigns next year. So knowing what you want for your business may well pay dividends.

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How group buying can work for a business

Online vouchers can be good for a business when planned well

Online deal finding site The Dealmix has an excellent blog post analysing how daily deals can work for a business.

As the Dealmix points out, “daily deals can either hurt or help small businesses, depending on how they’re structured.”

In figuring out whether a deal will work, Dealmix breaks a group buying deal into four elements; expiration, quantity, terms and price;

Pricing the deal

Of all the areas, the pricing is the most critical. Get this wrong and you won’t achieve your objectives and it could be very quickly drive you out of business.

The Dealmix recommends two ways of pricing an offer – by making a net profit on the deal or structuring it a way that the customer’s total spend  offsets the cost of the offer.

Using Average Customer Spend, or ACS, to estimate how much a customer will spend is problematic with specials and group buying deals as the takers are not going to be your average customers.

It’s likely group buying customers are going to be far less open with their wallets than your regulars. Trying to upsell price conscious is probably what brings cafes and restaurants unstuck with many of these deals.

Both methods rely on knowing the Cost Of Goods Sold and the Average Customer Spend. Notable in the stories of group buying disasters is just how many business owners don’t understand these basics.

If you don’t know what the total cost is to your business in providing the goods or services, you should be talking to an accountant before going near these deals.

Also keep in mind the group buying service is going to take their cut which will be between 15 and 100% depending on the size and nature of the deal. For many businesses the commission is a deal breaker.

Quantity

The biggest complaint from customers about group buying offers is the deals are booked out for months – it’s also how service businesses find themselves overwhelmed by the response to a keenly priced offer.

Again, before launching a group buying offer, understand the spare capacity of your business and ensure there is a maximum limit to the number of deals available – as The Dealmix points out, a sold out deal is a great marketing tool.

Terms

Conditions are probably the trickiest; put in too many gotchas and you’ll scare customers away or find yourself fighting with the 90% of clients who buy the deal without reading the T&Cs.

You can guarantee some of those fights will end up being public and it’s unlikely your business will win the public relations battle. This is not your business objective.

Make sure key terms like what days the deal is available on, maximum limits, types of service are reasonable and clearly defined at the time of the offer.

Expiration

When the deal expires is the key condition, it’s madness offering deals that never expires as they can come back to haunt you for years and it may even affect the resale value of your business.

The Dealmix suggests not restricting it to a month as you’ll be overwhelmed with customers while leaving it too long will dilute the value and any measurements.

Ideally the deal will last three to six months, which is another reason for understanding your business’ capacity at various times of the year.

Timing the expiry is important to, as The Dealmix suggests, the deal shouldn’t finish on a busy day and equally you should consider when your business is the quietest. If things are slow during school holidays, summer or Christmas then that might be the time you want to have the last minute rush of redemptions happening.

Business Planning

Probably the most important aspect of a group buying deal is how does it fit into your business objectives. Are you intending to build a customer base, contact list, pubicise your business, clear stock or give sales a boost? Those objectives are going to determine how you structure the offer.

As The Dealmix’s diagram shows, group buying deals are complex and the merchant has to give some thought on getting the offer right. Those business who do get the mix right can do very well from a well thought out online offer.

Like all business tools, group buying sites can be really useful when done well. The key is understanding what you’re doing with that tool.

We discuss group buying and building your own campaign in e-business, Seven Steps to Online Success. If you need help or advice in building an offer, Netsmarts can help you.

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Rules

Too many rules can kill your business

Three recent examples of rules from web based organisations.

Example 1

“Your article does not adhere to the following Editorial Guidelines:

Issue 1 (Section 3.f.i.c)
http://EzineArticles.com/editorial-guidelines/guideline/3f#i-c

Issue 2 (Section 3.f.i.a)
http://EzineArticles.com/editorial-guidelines/guideline/3f#i-a

Example 2

Hi,

Please don’t include a URL in the question text. Links should go in question details, preferably labelled.

Quora content team

Example 3

Account suspended. Make sure your listings meet the quality guidelines.

Why rules can be a problem

Rules are necessary in any society though if you’re trying to build a community one sure way of killing it is to welcome new users with a wall of rules and a bunch of “leaders” inflexibly enforcing them.

An interesting thing all three of the above services – Quora, eZineArticles and Google Places – have in common is they need free content from contributors to build their communities and realise their business plans.

It’s one thing to give power hungry moderators and administrators control when you’re in a position of power, but it’s silly when you need people more than they need you.

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All hail the vacuum tube

Predictions don’t always turn out how we expect

In 1931, the New York Times celebrated its 80th anniversary and invited some of the era’s greatest minds to speculate on what the world would like in the next 80 years.

80 years on, Business Insider looked at those predictions and few interesting things stood out that show us how, even when we are right, things don’t turn out the way we expect.

Sir Arthur Keith – a doctor, scientist and prodigious writer who was one of the pioneers in popularising science – correctly forecast that medicine would become increasing specialised, predicting “I tremble when I think what its (The New York Times’) readers will find on their doorsteps every Sunday morning.”

Those very advances have contributed to the slimming down of the New York Times and the that many readers don’t collect it from their doorstep each morning, threatening the very future of the organisation.

William Ogburn was the prominent sociologist of the day, and predicted “Humanity’s most versatile servant will be the electron tube” and that “labor displacement will proceed even to automatic factories.” All of which was true.

The “electron tube” – or vacuum tube – is an interesting allusion to the prevailing technology of the day. Vacuum tubes were changing the world with the first wave of electronics and digitalisation.

Morse Code’s system of dots and dashes could be replaced with Zeros and Ones that allowed the technologies to be applied to radio sets, machinery and telephones.

The real benefits of these technologies had to wait until the vacuum tube was replaced with the transistor in the 1970s. Transistors were even more portable and as integrated circuit and manufacturing processes evolve, we saw “Moore’s Law” develop where computer power doubles every eighteen months.

Both William Obburn and Sir Arthur Keith were proved right, but not quite in the way anyone could have foreseen at the time.

Which shows how fraught predictions are; even if we are correct how things turn out might not be quite what we expect. It’s worthwhile considering this when we look at how trends and innovations may affect our businesses.

The Business Insider article on the original predictions is worth reading, along with its sister article on how the world will look in 2050.

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Lords of the digital manor

How free content and expensive management can’t live together

There is something fundamentally wrong with AOL’s media business states a Business Insider headline.

What is fundamentally wrong is quite basic to anyone who has owned or managed a business – money.

The problems at AOL illustrate the deep flaws in the “digital sharecropper” business model of putting free or cheap content on the web to harvest online advertising.

Lords of the digital manor

Sites like Demand Media and Huffington Post can’t make money from content if too many staff expect to get paid. Chris Anderson illustrated this in a rebuttal to Malcolm Gladwell where he examined the economics of his GeekDad blog and the work of its manager, Ken;

So here’s the calculus:

  • Wired.com makes good money selling ads on GeekDad (it’s very popular with advertisers)
  • Ken gets a nominal retainer, but has also managed to parlay GeekDad into a book deal and a lifelong dream of being a writer
  • The other contributors largely write for free, although if one of their posts becomes insanely popular they’ll get a few bucks. None of them are doing it for the money, but instead for the fun, audience and satisfaction of writing about something they love and getting read by a lot of people.

It’s almost touching to picture the modern day digital serf touching his flat cap and murmuring “thank you m’lud” on receiving a ha’penny from the lord of the digital manor before scampering back to working on becoming a well read, but unpaid writer.

We don’t pay writers

The business model of the Geek Dad blog or the Huffington Post relies upon these unpaid writers donating their work and time –the digital sharecroppers as described by Jeff Attwood.

Low paid or free labour is essential to the success of these site, when the bulk of advertising income goes straight to the proprietors the digital aristocrats – Lord Chris of Wired or Duchess Arianna – can live well.

The business model falls apart when management starts taking a cut of the profits; install a highly paid CEO and management team with their squadrons of Executive Vice Presidents or Group General Managers with the Medici-esque perks and entitlements these folk demand and the profits disappear.

AOL’s problem is it has too many highly paid managers extracting wealth from the company’s cashflow.

This is exactly the same problem print and television media empires have, once the rich rivers of gold allowed them to build up well paid management castes that are now crippling the businesses as revenues can’t support their financial burden.

Paying for digital media’s future

Over time, online media revenues are improving. As Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker pointed out in 2010 that U.S. consumers spend 28 percent of their media time online, yet in 2010 only 13 percent of ad spending goes to the Internet. As advertisers follow consumers, publishing on the web will become more profitable.

The risk for big media organisations is their money will run out before the digital renaissance arrives and when it does, they may have squandered their natural advantages by shedding quality journalists, experienced sub-editors and good editors in an effort to prop up executive bonuses.

AOL’s management problem is part of a much bigger problem across markets and industries, we can call it managerialism – there are too many highly paid managers getting in the way of the writers, engineers, scientists, artists and tradesman who add real value to their organisations.

Strangely, it may be Chris Anderson’s “free” model that kills the managerial culture as enterprises that can’t afford to pay product creators certainly won’t pay an Executive Vice President’s entitlements.

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The business of denial

Denying market realities is rarely a good business move

Denial is a powerful sedative, it allows us to trundle dozily along a well worn patch oblivious to the reality our comfortable world has changed.

Last week’s claim that youth is fed up with the iPhone by Nokia’s Niels Munksgaard – who has the wonderful title of Director of Portfolio, Product Marketing & Sales – is a great example of how far and how long denial can continue while there’s still money to pay executive bonuses.

Canada’s beleaguered Research In Motion, manufacturers of the Blackberry phone, showed the same delusions when they released their Playbook tablet computer with the declaration Amateur Hour Is Over.

The only amateur hour was in the hubristic minds of RIM’s marketing team.

While profits keep flowing big organisation can afford delusions – Google can indulge their social media fantasies while the Adwords rivers of gold continue to flow ever faster and Microsoft can continue to indulge their delusions while their Windows and Office products remain immensely profitable.

Microsoft’s “droidrage” campaign, designed to embarrass Google’s Android mobile phone platform, is part of that delusion; for Microsoft’s campaign to work they have to prove there is a widespread Android malware problem, show their system isn’t prone to the same flaws and – most importantly – have enough product on the market to sell to those disillusioned Google customers.

Such a negative campaign has many fallacies – it assumes there are widespread security problems in Android, that Microsoft will pick up disaffected Google customers and there are enough Microsoft based products to grab those sales.

Probably Microsoft’s biggest problem is the assumption that customers actually care about that stuff – for years Windows dominated its market despite being riddled with computer with security holes and malware.

Microsoft succeeded because their competition was delusional; the best example being WordPerfect claiming graphic systems like Windows were a fad at a time when an inferior Microsoft Word was gobbling up their markets.

By the time WordPerfect realised their error and released a truly dreadful WordPerfect for Windows it was all too late, like a stagecoach company realising the motorcar is here to stay.

The problem for businesses in denial is that reality eventually does bite; plenty of people in the newspaper industry believed their advertising based model was secure and profitable – indeed many of the cosseted managers in that sector still believe it is – which now leaves them struggling in a changed world they thought they could ignore.

Denial among incumbents is a great opportunity for newer, more flexible players; for years mobile phone and tablet computer manufacturers were in denial about the usuability of their product – Apple proved them wrong and now commands the most profitable chunks of those markets.

Being the village blacksmith or a buggy whip maker was a good business to be in at the beginning of the 20th Century. Thirty years later those block boys and saddlemakers who hadn’t made the jump found themselves out of work.

It’s going to be interesting to see will be this century’s buggy whip manufacturers.

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