You can’t get there from here

What the world can learn from the failure of Australia’s National Broadband Network

I swore – mainly for my own sanity – that I wouldn’t discuss Australia’s National Broadband Network on this site anymore, today though the topic raised an interesting point about business leadership and project management that can’t be ignored.

Australian Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull today released the Broadband Availability and Quality Report (PDF) along with the accompanying My Broadband website that identifies the nation’s telecommunications blackspots.

Extraordinary failure

“It is extraordinary that in six years of Labor talking about Australians having inadequate broadband they never bothered to do the work of actually identifying where services were good, bad or indifferent,” said the minister at the announcement.

Turnbull’s comments are correct, although the criticism is just as valid of previous Liberal and Labor governments who’ve all made incredibly poor decisions in the telecommunications portfolio without considering what was actually happening outside the ministers’ offices.

A bigger lesson though is that before commissioning a project the size of the NBN – estimates have put its cost anywhere between twenty and eighty billion US dollars – it’s a good idea to know where you are are and where you want to go.

Big Hairy Audacious Goals

To put the comments that follow into perspective, I was a supporter of the NBN concept although I thought it was a Big Hairy Audacious Goal.

In the shadow of the Global Financial Crisis the NBN project ticked all the boxes; it put cash into the economy, it employed an army of workers and upgraded Australia’s telecommunications network that had been neglected by thirty years of incompetent government policies mixed with incumbent telco greed.

Australia could have afforded ten NBNs during the mining boom of the 2000s; it was an opportunity to rebuild the nation’s ports, roads, railways, schools and tax system that all needed reinvestment and reinvention to meet the needs of the 21st Century.

Building a middle class welfare nanny state

Rather than reform the economy or build modern infrastructure, the Howard Liberal government decided to spend the mining boom’s proceeds on building a middle class welfare state.

Keen students of Australian politics crack a wry smile that the recently elected Abbott Liberal government, of which Turnbull is a member, proposes a paid parental scheme that will complete John Howard’s grand vision of a Middle Class Welfare Nanny State.

One of the tragedies of the populist and cowardly Gillard and Rudd Labor governments that succeeded Howard was neither had the courage to dismantle the Liberal party’s middle class welfare state.

At least though both Rudd and Gillard were prepared to make some big infrastructure investments, even if they weren’t fully thought through and chronically underfunded.

Failing to think through the needs, scope and costs of the project meant the National Broadband Network project quickly collapsed into a managerial mess exacerbated by the dribbling incompetence of the company’s executives, government officials and contractors, which bought us to Turnbull’s announcement today.

A project in search of a scope

The project’s failure is a worrying commentary on the abilities of Australia’s management elites in both the private and public sector, however the lesson for the entire world is understanding both where you are and where you want to go to is essential for a project’s success.

Spending on well planned and necessary infrastructure is good, but to avoid disasters like Australia’s NBN it’s good to start with understanding the problems you want to fix and a project scope that clearly identifies the work that needs to be done.

Unfortunately too many governments and businesses don’t know where they are or where their plans will take them.

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Has the social media bubble popped?

Poor LinkedIn and Twitter earnings could be marking the end of the social media bubble

Last week Facebook’s stock soared after the company reported better than expected earnings on its advertising services.

It seemed that the social media sites had finally cracked the code on how to make money out of their billions of enthusiastic users.

This week sees a different story as both Twitter and LinkedIn disappointed investors with missed revenues targets in their quarterly earnings reports.

Twitter’s blues

For Twitter the market reaction was merciless – the stock price dropped 24% – as a $500 million loss in it’s first quarter of trading on the stock market is not a good look.

In Twitter’s defense, all of that loss was due to the cost of acquisitions being booked by the company. In 2013 the social media site spent over $500 million buying out various advertising, curation and and analytics services.

The question now for Twitter is whether they can weld together a profitable platform from the collections of businesses they’ve acquired and start delivering a return to investors.

A miss for LinkedIn

LinkedIn has a similar bent towards acquisitions having announced its purchase of data analytics company Bright on the same day as its disappointing results, however the company’s undershooting expectations was because of lower than expected revenues.

‘Disappointing’ is an interesting word in the context of LinkedIn as revenues were up 47% over the previous year.

What possibly should have been more concerning for analysts than the headline revenue number are Linkedin’s soaring costs of doing business – both sales & marketing and product development costs were up 50% year on year – which cut profits by over two thirds.

The most worrying part of LinkedIn’s earnings miss is the company’s price to earnings ratio. Currently the stock trades at an eye-watering P/E of 1,000 which implies investors are expecting a lot more revenue into the business.

Over-inflated expectations

It’s hard to argue that social media stocks aren’t in a bubble with those multiples. Even Facebook trades a hefty one hundred times earnings despite its improved revenues.

Perhaps the simple fact is we’re expecting too much from social media services; they are good businesses, but maybe they’ll never be the fantastic profit machines that Apple, Google or Microsoft have been.

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Lowered expectations – What is the future for Apple?

Where to next for Apple in an era of lowered expectations?

Last Friday I had a story in Business Spectator on the future of Apple in light of the company’s warning of a 20% fall in revenue next quarter.

The clear message from Apple’s executives was that the company is facing a terminal decline in iPod sales and the iPhone – it’s most profitable and highest selling product – is facing slower sales.

So the search is on to find something that will replicate the iPhone’s success, with the biggest candidate being the iWatch.

The problem with that is the entire wearable technology market is only forecast to be $6bn which is a seventh of Apple’s $42 billion profit last year, so the iWatch can never replace falling iPhone sales.

It may well be for Apple that the period of massive profits and growth is drawing to an end, it doesn’t mean the company is dying – for a start they has nearly $200bn in cash reserves and a healthy $150 billion in sales each year.

Short of Tim Cook unveiling something similar to the iPhone, the future for Apple is probably going to be a bit modest than past few years of huge growth, that’s not a bad thing.

Rather than being the end of Apple, it’s more a revision to the role the company has held for most of it’s existence – a high profit, niche business that sells on quality and brand rather than fighting in the commodity markets.

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On looking foolish

Looking foolish is one of the biggest risks when taking chances in business. It’s something every innovator and entrepreneur has to consider.

Looking foolish is one of the biggest risks when taking chances in business. It’s something every innovator and entrepreneur has to consider.

Venture Capital investor Mark Suster explains why he doesn’t mind looking foolish with his choice of investors on his blog today.

One of the toughest things in life is taking the risk of looking foolish in front of your peers yet that’s what the real high risk inventors, innovators and entrepreneurs do with their ventures.

Light bulbs and the telephone looked ridiculous to many at the time they were invented and no doubt the inventor of the wheel or the Neanderthal who came up with the idea of cooking meat in a fire both probably received a far bit of scorn when they told the others in their tribe about their idea.

While Suster is talking about ‘moonshot investments’, even the most modest venture is going to attract scorn.

There would be few people who decided to buy a doughnut franchise, establish a cafe or set up a lawn mowing service who weren’t told by some of their relatives, friends or colleagues that they are doing the wrong thing and they should stick to their safe job in their cosy cubicle.

Should someone want to change the way doughnuts are made or lawns mowed, then they can expect even more naysayers laughing at them.

In this current craze about ‘entrepreneurship’ it’s easy to overlook the real costs and risks of running any sort of business. Looking foolish is another of those risks.

Having a thick hide is another useful attribute when you’re investing, running a business or changing an industry.

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Startup economics

The failure of Everpix is a good lesson for any business founder.

Business advisor Ivan Plenty’s in-depth study of the viability of failed photo sharing startup Everpix with some useful lessons for business owners in any industry.

Everpix shut down last November having run out of money despite getting favourable reviews from the tech press and in an unusual move, the founders put the company’s financials up on GitHub.

As Plenty points out in his analysis of Everpix’s finances, the company was unlikely to ever break even and it’s a lesson to every business owner on the importance of keeping an eye on cashflow and understanding where the venture’s break eve points are.

One of the key take-aways from Plenty’s analysis was that the base costs of the business were too high and even in the best circumstances it was unlikely that venture would have succeeded.

A good business plan would have helped the founders understand this problem and it illustrates why rigorously developed cashflow forecast is a great tool for a manager or proprietor.

The Silicon Valley investment model

The ultimate objectives of a company’s management are always important when considering the success or failure of a business; what objective is the business working towards?

In Everpix’s case, it may well have been the Silicon Valley Greater Fool model was a likely end, with good software and a growing customer base the company could have been attractive to a buyer.

Were that the objective of Everpix’s founders, the company was under-capitalised as management couldn’t afford either the burn out or the PR and marketing team essential for raising the venture’s profile with key investors.

Under-capitalisation is one of the greatest problems for any new business and its clear that Everpix didn’t have the equity to scale the way it needed.

Capital on its own though isn’t a panacea, from Ivan Plenty’s analysis the indications are that Everpix’s fate would have been the same, but more drawn out.

Everpix’s failure and the numbers behind it are a good lesson for anybody thinking about starting a business — numbers matter and businesses live and die by them.

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Dangerous liaisons – the risks in government support

Government investment money isn’t free or easy as a UK entrepreneur found.

“I coulda bin a contender” is the first thing that comes to mind when reading The Register’s story on how the iPhone could have been a British invention.

However the tale of British engineer Andrew Fentem and his struggles with the UK investment bureaucracy is a warning to all of those who think that government support programs are an easily solution for getting ideas to market.

Fentem’s story is a common one around the world – an inventor approaches a government agency which agrees to support the project and then bogs the entire venture down in paperwork and bureaucracy.

In some respects this is understandable as bureaucrats and politicians are deeply risk averse, which is fair when taxpayers money is involved, with the result that justifying an investment is going to be more about ticking boxes and meeting criteria rather than genuinely helping projects succeed.

During my short stint in working for a government agency every week would see at least three people contacting me about taxpayer support for their businesses.

Most of the time there was no godly reason for the government to give these folk a penny and it took the few diplomatic skills I have to politely break the news they had little prospect of getting a grant or subsidy.

Some approaches though were very good projects but usually I’d warn the inventor or entrepreneur that any support the state government would give them would come at the cost of spending hours completing irritating paper work.

My advice was that driving a cab and living on noodles for six months to raise the capital would be a better investment of their time than dealing with grey suited bureaucrats like me.

This advice didn’t always go down well, but it was better for both the taxpayer and the entrepreneur in the long run.

Well thought out government programs can do a lot of good for businesses or inventions that might not otherwise come to fruition, although many of the success stories probably have as much to do with the calibre of the public servants running the scheme as they do with the programs themselves.

In the case of Andrew Fentem and his touchscreen technology it’s almost certain that the folk at NESTA were out of their depth and far more comfortable with subsidising trips to Las Vegas for circus clowns, which in itself is a valuable lesson for governments on defining programs and supervising agencies.

Raising funds for any business or invention is a tough game anywhere in the world and assuming governments are an easy way to find money is as flawed as any other misconception about building a startup.

The moral is government money in neither free nor easy if you’re an inventor or an entrepreneur.

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How important is public transport to smart cities?

Public transit systems may be essential to a city’s success in the 21st Century.

One of things that stands out when discussing economic development with city governments is the importance of public transit for towns aspiring to be smart cities.

This was particularly notable in interviewing Gordon Innes, CEO of London and Partners, about British capital’s building upon the legacy of the 2012 Olympics and its quest become the digital capital of Europe.

At the centre of these developments is public transit, something mentioned by both Innes and Laurel Barsotti of the City of San Francisco.

Innes sees public transport as essential to London’s growth, “it’s absolutely critical to the physical growth of the economy.”

“In the run up to the Olympics nine billion was spend in upgrading the tube and Dockland Light Railway and that opened up all of East London’s economy in way because it wasn’t accessible or attractive for businesses.”

“Stratford now is the best connected train station in Europe,” declares Innes. “That part of the city and around the Docklands is much more accessible and that’s bringing in investors. It wouldn’t have happened if the transport infrastructure wasn’t there.”

In San Francisco, Laurel Barsotti sees a much more subtle advantage for the city in having, by US standards, a comprehensive public transit system in its bus, light rail and subway system.

“A lot of the entrepreneurs creating those companies are concerned their employees see people using their products,” says Barsott. “They want them riding the bus to and from work and see people interacting with their products.”

While in Barcelona, the public transport system is forming part of the local Smart City program where bus stops are Wi-Fi base stations and a fundamental part of the town’s communications network.

For cities, it may well be that having decent public transit systems is going to be the competitive difference in being a key part of the 21st Century economy.

Those parts of the world not investing in transport networks may find they are being left behind in the new economy.

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