Rise and fall

We live in rapidly changing times. Incumbents and market leaders shouldn’t assume their positions are safe.

Twenty years ago UK supermarket chain Tesco was an also ran.

A decade ago it was the market leader.

Today Tesco is in trouble again as low cost European competitors like Aldi and Lidl have chipped away the British majors’ market share.

A few weeks later, Tesco shares plummeted on revelations the company’s profit guidance had been overtstated by 250 million pounds with the company’s chief executive Dave Lewis announcing several executives have been stood down as auditors investigate the descrepencies.

Tesco is a very good example of how quickly how competitors can come from behind in today’s marketplaces; first Tesco itself during its 1990s rise and then its crash in recent years.

We live in rapidly changing times. Incumbents and market leaders shouldn’t assume their positions are safe.

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Frenemies in the age of tectonic shifts

In an age where business is changing dramatically it’s worth keeping your rivals close.

“Apple lives in an ecosystem,” Steve Jobs told the 1997 MacWorld conference. “It helps other partners and it needs the help of other partners.”

A few minutes later Jobs unveiled Apple’s deal with Microsoft, much to the disgust of many of the company’s true believers in the audience – something not helped by Bill Gates appearing on video midway through the presentation.

“We have to let go of the idea that for Apple to win, Microsoft has to lose;” said Jobs after the booing died down.

I was reminded of Jobs’ and Gates’ deal when talking to Pat Gelsinger, the CEO of virtualisation software company VM Ware at their annual VM World conference in San Francisco this week.

Gelsinger was discussing the myriad deals VM Ware has made with companies that are their superficially their rivals as markets radically change. The company has even gone as far to embrace the open source Open Stack that was originally set up as competition to VM Ware’s proprietary technology.

“The idea of frenemies – or co-competition – isn’t new to the IT industry.” Said Gelsinger, “as we are in this period that we’ve called the tectonic shifts that are underway.”

“All of us need to be somewhat careful about who’s our friends and who’s our enemies as we go through that period and be as nice as we can to everybody because who’s our friends and who’s our enemies in six months or twelve months could change a whole lot.”

That lesson has been harsh in the IT industry as various unstoppable businesses have found the market has shifted rapidly against them. A process that’s accelerating as cloud computing changes the software industry.

“I always quip that ten years ago or fifteen years ago Sun would have been buying Oracle. Those shifts can occur quite rapidly,” Gelsinger says.

VM Ware itself is on the brunt of one of those shifts as its core business of creating virtual services in company’s data centres is being disrupted by cloud computing companies like Amazon, Google and – ironically – Microsoft.

Adapting to that changing market is the key task for Gelsinger and VM Ware’s management team, “our philosophy has been about doing the right thing that technology enables us to do.” Gesliner states, “do the right things for our customers and enable the ecosystem to join us on the journey.”

For companies like VM Ware and Microsoft no-one predicted that one of their biggest threats would come from an online book retailer, yet Amazon Web Services has upended the entire software industry.

The challenges for VM Ware today or Apple nearly two decades ago are being repeated in many other industries as competitors appear from unexpected directions, which is why it’s important not to ignore and sometimes co-operate with your competitors.

We shouldn’t also ignore the other main reason why companies like Apple, Microsoft and, possibly, VM Ware have survived massive market shifts over time – a deep and loyal customer base.

Understanding and responding to your customers’ needs is possibly the greatest management skill needed in every business today. Are you listening to what your market is telling you?

Paul travelled to VM World in San Francisco as a guest of VM Ware

Picture of Steve Jobs and Bill Gates via Joi Ito on Flickr

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Uber looks to sending taxis and lyft ride sharing service to the deadpool

Uber is to launched a new service that further disrupts the taxi industry

In its latest move to reinvent the taxi industry, Uber has launched a new service caused Uberpool reports Techcrunch.

Uberpool allows customers to split fares with other passengers, making the service cheaper. This threatens both taxis and and ride sharing services like Lyft.

It also shows what deep pockets can buy, with plenty of venture capital funding Uber can afford to experiment with these services. Those resources makes it hard to compete against Uber.

For Lyft and many of the other hire car startups, Uber is doing everything it can to drive their businesses into the deadpool.

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Amazon learns that profits matter

One of the leaders of the disruptive economy, Amazon, feeling the heat as other deep pocketed rivals put pressure on its businesses.

It’s typical for a new businesses to go several years making losses but Amazon has barely made a profit over the last twenty years despite being valued at $150 billion by the stockmarket.

That luck could be running out though as the Amazon’s stock fell nearly 10% last week after the company announced it had slipped back into losses last quarter.

Amazon’s losses are largely due to Google starting a price war on web services which is a warning that other deep pocketed web giants are now lining up for the company.

Google’s actions in crippling Amazon are somewhat ironic given how Amazon disrupted the publishing industry by using its deep pockets to subsidise its loss making bookselling business.

Amazon’s problem is it operates in commoditised industries where deep pocketed players are prepared to challenge the company’s market position.

Companies like Google and Apple have incredibly profitable products like Adwords and the iPhone while Amazon relies on the largesse of investors hoping to turn a future profit, that is a clear weakness against strong, well funded businesses.

For a tech company, twenty years is clearly the future and now Amazon has to define exactly where the profits are in its business.

Sometimes, just being a disruptor isn’t enough.

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Jumping the queue

Reservation Hop illustrates all that is wrong with the current startup culture

Reservation Hop is a good example of many of the current breed of parasitic startups that want to create a new class of middleman.

The hospitality industry is tough work and something guaranteed to irritate restauranteurs are reservations that don’t show up.

One startup that seems almost certain to attract the ire of the restaurant industry is Reservation Hop – “We make reservations at the hottest restaurants in advance so you don’t have to.”

Reservation Hop makes table reservations at popular restaurants and then sells them through their website.

We book up restaurant reservations in advance. We only book prime-time restaurant reservations at the hottest local establishments, and we mostly list high-demand restaurants that are booked up on other platforms.

This is probably one of the worst examples of the middleman culture that dominates much of the current startup thinking.

Almost certainly there’s a market need for proxy queue jumpers – although one wonders how profitable it is when the transaction fees are under $10 – but this service will deeply irritate restaurant owners and diners who are crowded out by these ‘parasite’ services.

In many ways, Reservation Hop illustrates the problems with this phase of our current startup mania; the rise opportunistic businesses that are more akin to parasites than services that add value.

The Reservation Hop website assures patrons that there’s a 99% chance their booking will be honored by the restaurant on the night, we can expect establishments to start messing with that statistic as they wise up to the business.

Many in the startup sector speak about how new technology improves the world, services like Reservation hop illustrate that not every idea is a step forward.

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Fighting a loss making business

Uber follows the Amazon tactic of hurting the market with its deep pockets

Having deep pockets is a great help in business as the online cab war in San Francisco shows.

As competition heats up on the streets of San Francisco, Uber is trying to put Lyft out of business by offering fares below what they pay drivers.

This has been the long term tactic of Amazon; raise a lot of money and then run your main line of business at a loss.

Amazon have shown you can do this for a long time if investors stay patient. Fighting it is difficult if you don’t have deep pockets yourself.

In the long term though you can’t see this being good for customers, although in the meantime San Franciscans can enjoy cheap taxis.

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Self publishing and the cloud

The book publishing industry is being disrupted by cloud services

Today design site Canva hosted a media breakfast with their founders and chief evangelist, Guy Kawasaki.

One of industries Canva cite in their case studies is designing book covers as part of the publishing industry which Kawasaki points is an area where incumbent giants are falling down badly.

In Kawasaki’s view services like Canva, Amazon and the various publishing tools have made the major publishing houses redundant.

Publishers were once necessary to get a book to market; today there’s little a moderately well funded individual can’t do.

For publishers, it means they have to lift their game – automate their processes, harness their corporate knowledge and help good products get to market.

Instead most are riding a dying business model as cloud based services make it easy and simple to get a project to market.

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