Decoding the new economy

Dropping off the grid

Can you drop off the grid and hide from Big Data? The results of one lady’s experiment aren’t encouraging.

Just how hard is it to hide from big data? ABC Newcastle’s Carol Duncan and I will be discussing this from 2.40 this afternoon.

Princeton University assistant professor of sociology Janet Vertesi decided she’d find out by trying to conceal her pregnancy from the internet.

She describes her experiences to Think Progress and the lessons are startling on how difficult it is to drop off the Internet and business databases.

While it’s easy to tritely say ‘don’t use the internet’, Janet found that using cash to avoid being picked up by bank databases raises suspicions while not using discount voucher or store cards meant she missed out on valuable savings.

For many people though dropping off the internet is not an option – not having a LinkedIn profile hurts most job hunters’ chances of finding work while if you want to participate in communities, it’s often essential to join the group’s Facebook page.

The amazing part of all is that Janet herself became a Google conscientious objector two years ago after deciding the company’s data collection methods were too intrusive. Yet she still found it hard to keep the news of her baby off the internet.

Ultimately her friends were the greatest risk and she had to beg them not to mention her pregnancy on Facebook and other social media channels lest the algorithms pick that up.

For Janet, it proved possible but it was really hard work;

Experience has shown that it is possible, but it’s really not easy, and it comes with a lot of sacrifices. And it requires some technical skill. So to that end, it’s my concern about the opt-out idea. I don’t actually think it’s feasible for everyone to do this.

So can you drop off the net? Do you know if you’re on it at all. Join us on ABC Newcastle with Carol Duncan from 2.40 to discuss these issues and more.

Filing cabinet image by ralev_com through SXC.HU

Burying Google Plus

If Google+ is to be buried, it could be good news for Google’s other properties like local and mobile search

The announcement that Vic Gundotra, the executive responsible for Google+ at the search engine giant, is leaving the company has lead to the widespread assumption that the troubled social media platform is dead.

It’s not an unreasonable assumption that Google Plus is dead; the company’s trait of corporate attention deficit disorder means the project is likely to die of neglect without a top level executive supporting it.

Should Google Plus be dying, this won’t be bad news for some of the company’s other products, the enforced integration with the social media service irritated users, –particularly on YouTube — while reducing functionality for platforms like Google Places.

Google Places, or Google Plus for Business as it was clumsily renamed as part of the integration, could be the great beneficiary of removing the distraction of the social media service with renewed focus on local search.

Regaining focus

Losing focus on local and mobile search has been the most damaging effect from the Google Plus experience and renewed efforts in those fields will take on Facebook while filling a gap in the market.

It’s also unlikely that the entire ‘identity service’ will live on with those features permeating through the company’s products.

Of course, it could be that Google Plus isn’t dead at all; we’ll have a better idea of where it’s going to go when we see the level of commitment from senior management towards the product, although the appointment of a relatively junior executive doesn’t seem to be good news for the platform.

Moving on from Google Plus is an opportunity for the company to refocus on neglected niches, it could be a good result for the company’s shareholders.

Peak Google and the limits of internet advertising

The warning that online advertising revenues may have hit their limits has huge consequences for the internet industry.

Last week, Google’s share price slumped on news of poorer than expected revenue results and website Asymco has a detailed examination of how the company’s growth might have reached its limits.

Asymco’s warning to the online advertising industry is clear with the warning that revenues might start to decline in 2016.

That online advertising may have reached its peak means even an even more uncertain future for businesses rely on those revenues, and times have been tough for those sites in recent years as returns have fallen.

At the same time online ad spending seems to be peaking, print advertising revenues in the United States dropped a further 8% last year with income at now at 1982 levels. It seems publishers can’t win either way.

So its now wonder that online services like Google and Facebook are looking to payment systems and other ways to generate revenue, for online publishers things are even more problematic.

What is clear is the advertising driven revenue methods that work so well for the broadcast industry aren’t working for online publishers and quite possibly other internet based businesses as well.

The online industries need a David Sarnoff to figure out a model that works.

No country for small business

Online advertising for small business is wide open again as the Internet empires focus on big business.

Facebook’s latest changes to its layout creates more problems for small business using social media as the real estate available on its site for eyeballs gets smaller.

The social media giant has been catching criticism recently for changes to its algorithm that make it harder for businesses to be seen online.

In the hospitality industry, discontent was articulated by the Eat 24 website which closed its Facebook Page down after finding the problems too hard.

With the changes to the online advertising feed, it makes it even harder for small business to be seen on the platform as reduced space means higher prices for the space that remains available.

It’s hard to see small businesses getting much traction with the changes when they’re up against big brands with large budgets.

On the other hand for the big brands, the importance of proper targeting becomes even greater as wasting

A challenge for small business

The big problem now for small business is where do you advertise where the customers are?

A decade or so ago, this was a no-brainer – the local service or retail business advertised in the local newspaper or Yellow Pages. Customers went there and, despite their chronic inefficiencies, they worked.

Now with Facebook’s changes, it’s harder for customers to follow small business and this is a particular problem for hospitality where updates are hard.

The failure of Google

Google should have owned this market with Google Places however the service has been neglected as the company folded the business listing service into the Plus social media platform.

Today it’s hard to see where small business is going to achieve organic reach – unpaid appearances in social media and search – or paid reach as the competition with deep pocketed big brands is fierce.

Services like Yelp! were for a while a possible alternative but increasingly the deals they are stitching up deals with companies like Yahoo! and Australia’s Sensis are marginalising small business.

So the online world is getting harder for small business to get their message out onto online channels.

For the moment that’s a problem although it’s an interesting opportunity for an entrepreneur – possibly even a media company – to exploit.

Holy wars and internet empires

Steve Jobs declared Apple would wage Holy War on Google in 2011 in an effort to secure an online empire

A regular topic of this blog has been the rise of the internet empires that want to lock users into their kingdoms.

On the edges of these empires things can get ugly as the competing groups fight for supremacy and to capture users.

In these wars, no-one was capable of getting uglier that Steve Jobs.

Which makes Steve Jobs’ declaration that 2011 would be a year of Holy War with Google unsurprising.

The statement typical Jobsian hyperbole, but we should under estimate just how serious Apple’s staff would take such a statement.

Apple’s intention to wage ‘holy war’ illustrates just how high the stakes as the online empires try to capture users.

Those Holy Wars and the reason they are being fought is something all of us should keep in mind when we’re asked to choose between Apple, Google or Microsoft.

Disrupting the smartphone market

The Tizen and Firefox smartphone systems threaten to disrupt the entire industry and ruin the plans of both Apple and Google.

It’s been a long time since we’ve had a three or four way war in the technology industry, with most sectors settling down into a two way fight between alternatives.

Mozilla’s promised $25 smartphone project threatens to open the mobile industry into a three way battle just as it appeared the market had comfortably settled down into an Android and iOS duopoly.

Now we see a three way race and possibly four if Samsung can get traction with its Tizen operating system that it’s bundling into the latest version of the Gear smartwatch.

One positive aspect of the four way battle is that three of the participants – Firefox, Tizen and Android are relatively open so compatibility between them isn’t impossible.

For Google and Apple though, this four way tussle presents a problem to their business plans.

Apple’s iOS ambitions of putting the software in smarthomes, connected cars and, possibly most lucratively of all, into retailing with iBeacon are threatened by a fragmented market and a rapidly eroding market share.

For Google, both Firefox and Tizen threaten the dominant position of their Android operating system that forms a plank in the company’s ambition to control the planet’s data and become an ‘identity service’.

Worse still for Google’s information ambitions, Firefox is working with Deutsche Telekom on a security initiative that will lock away users’ data.

So the stakes are high in the smartphone operating systems wars.

It’s early days to forecast the demise of either Android or Apple iOS, which is unlikely in the short term, but if Firefox’s operating system does take hold it will mean the smartphone industry is about to become a lot more complex.

Tag: google

Dropping off the grid

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