google | Paul Wallbank - Communications Professional

Can Microsoft beat the PC marketplace’s structural decline?

Windows 8 faces big challenges in replacing Microsoft’s cash cows

In New York on Thursday Microsoft will have a marathon launch of their Windows 8 system and the futures of many of their hardware partners lie on the success of the new system.

For Microsoft, Windows 8 could be the last throw of the dice for the desktop operating system that has sustained the company for thirty years.

The figures aren’t good for Windows as Microsoft’s 2012 profit and loss shows, here are the figures broken out by operating unit segment from the company’s annual report.

Year Ended June 30,	2012	2011	2010
Revenue	bn $	bn $	bn $
Windows & Windows Live Division	18,818	18,787	18,789
Operating Income (Loss)
Windows & Windows Live Division	11,908	11,971	12,193

The core Windows & Windows Live Division has stagnant revenues and a slowly declining profit margin. We’ll leave the huge losses in the online division for a future post.

Since the days of the first MS-DOS deal with IBM, Microsoft’s core business has been the licensing of operating systems to PC manufacturers and now that model is in trouble.

For instance Dell had an 8% drop in revenue resulting in a worrying 22% drop in operating profit, their PC dominated consumer division suffered a fat 22% drop in sales and recorded a miniscule .5% profit margin. Similarly Asus had 25% drop in sales to record a 2011 loss.

The pain being suffered by PC manufacturers’ sales and margins will almost certainly be shared by Microsoft as companies like Dell, HP and Asus simply can’t afford to pay the licensing fees which have sustained the Redmond business model for so long.

Microsoft and their partners hope – or pray – that the PC decline is a temporary hiccup in computer sales similar to the traditional lull seen before the release of a new system.

History’s not on their side with research company Asymco expecting sales of tablet computers to overtake PCs sometime in late 2013.

This is not a cyclical trend – the PC industry is in structural decline; the traditional Windows upgrade cycle is dead and Google are running interference with their Chromebook networked laptops.

Moving onto tablets and smartphones in this light makes sense for Microsoft and given the PC manufacturers have failed dismally to deliver decent tablet computers or phones over the last 15 years so it’s understandable the software giant wanted to develop their own hardware or team up with a struggling company like Nokia.

The declining margins in personal computers means we’re seeing the end of the Windows desktop ecosystem. With the rise of the web and cloud computing the type of operating system we use is like arguing between Toyota and BMW drivers; one might be more prestigious but both will get you where you want to go.

For Microsoft the challenge is to replace those Windows licensing rivers of gold with similar revenue streams through their phone and tablet products but with Apple and Google already dominating those fields, is it too late for the company that dominated personal computing? The next six months will tell us.

Google for entrepreneurs

A global research for entrepreneurs and business people from Google

This is an interesting project – Google have pulled together all their entrepreneurial resources into one page at Google For Entrepreneurs.

As well as being a handy resource for anyone building a business, it’s a great overview of the various programs Google and their partners are running around the world.

If you are looking at setting up a business or have a fast growing enterprise it might be worthwhile having a look at the resources Google have pulled together.

They thought they didn’t have a problem

Apple’s mapping problem could indicate bigger problems at the company

As Apple fans howl about the about the new iOS6 Maps feature which replaces the old one driven by Google Maps, it’s useful to get a cartographer’s view of how Apple got things wrong.

Michael Dobson’s analyis deep dives into the complexities of mapping which can be summed up in one phrase; “their problem is that they thought they did not have a problem.”

Those Rumsfeldian ‘unknown unknowns comes back to bite a company again.

Like many things in life, mapping is a lot more difficult than it looks and assuming that a drawing or an older map is correct or the features unchanged is risky.

This is not a job you just leave to machines sucking down data from various sources; details needs to be checked, validated and checked again before being added to a map.

What’s worrying about Apple’s map snafu is this probably wouldn’t have happened under Steve Jobs as he’d have used the app himself and yelled at people when it didn’t work.

Apple’s decision to run with a substandard service smells horribly of decision by committee and compromised products being release to suit managerial imperatives rather than delivering one perfectionist’s vision of what worked.

We may well be seeing the beginning of Apple’s evolution into an anonymous corporation.

One of the positives of that is we may also discover a less secretive or hubristic Apple.

How Apple fix their map application is going to be interesting, they certainly have the funds to hire the best brains in mapping along with the 7,000 other employees Google are estimated to have in their mapping division, the question is should they?

For Google, having a huge division building and improving their maps search as geolocation is a key part of their local services and search tools.

Apple on the other hand doesn’t need a stand alone mapping division and while they can afford one, it certainly isn’t an effective use of their capital or management time.

It may well be that Apple will have to swallow their pride and license the data feeds back from Google or even Nokia, or perhaps they could even put in a bid for Nokia just to mess with the minds of Microsoft’s management.

Regardless of which way Apple decide to go, they’ve got themselves in an expensive mess which is going to take some time or money to fix.

For now, I’m sticking with iOS5 on my phone as I like my mapping app too much, particularly the integrated public transit features. My guess is I’m not alone.

Salesforce’s place in the web’s walled gardens

Can Salesforce take a place alongside Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Google?

“Did he just say we’re at the half-way mark?” Whispered the ashen faced journalist beside me as Mark Benioff’s Dreamforce keynote reached the 90 minute mark.

Benioff did and the presentation did indeed go three hours because Salesforce.com had a lot to announce with launches of new mobile apps, customer service programs and HR services.

At the press conference later in the day, Benioff said “we are interested in collaboration and the customer. the reason we’re in marketing is because our customers want us to be in marketing.”

An interesting part of this is the Facebook relationship, with the Buddy Media acquisition 10% of Facebook’s advertising revenue comes through Salesforce. This in itself makes Salesforce a key Facebook partner.

Facebook’s relationship goes deeper with Salesforce, at the media conference Marc Benioff mentioned that the company’s purchase of Rypple came about because of urging from Tim Capos, Facebook’s CIO.

That deep relationship was on show in the opening keynote where Facebook were one of the strategic partners showcased by Benioff.

Of the products showcased, one of the important points that kept being raised was Salesforce’s role as the enterprise social media identity service.

A partnership between Salesforce and Facebook to provide online identity validation would effectively kill Eric Schmidt’s aim of Google being the Internet’s identity service although Benioff was at pains in the media conference to emphasise there was room for more than one player.

Google are also being challenged by Benioff’s announcement of Chatterbox, a secure online file storage and sharing service.

While the focus with the Chatterbox announcement was on the threat this presents to Dropbox and Box.net, the bigger targets are Google Drive, Apple iCloud and Microsoft’s SkyDrive.

Salesforce’s move into the various fields of HR, marketing, file storage and collaboration are part of the company staking its own position among the various web empires.

With a strong enterprise position, it’s quite possible Salesforce could establish itself as the fifth of the Internet’s great empires.

Every empire needs an army and a particularly strong claim Salesforce would have are the ranks of developers and supporters gathering around the service’s open APIs.

The move to establish an independent position on the web would also explain Benioff’s commitment to HTML5 as this avoids locking the company into an Apple, Google or Microsoft dominated app environment.

We’ll see over time how Salesforce establishes their position among the internet empires, right now though their range of services, customer base and partner ecosystem means they are well placed to compete with the big four currently dominating the web.

Paul travelled to the San Francisco Dreamforce conference courtesy of Salesforce.com

Google tries to drive American business online

Can Google convince reluctant American businesses to move online?

Google’s quest to sign the world’s businesses up to websites stepped into the big time this week with the launch of America, Get Your Business Online.

The US program is based upon the Getting British Business Online program which was followed up with similar projects in Australia and then Texas prior to being launched nationally across the States.

An interesting aspect with the rollout of the various programs has been Google’s choice of partners — in Britain the key supporter was the incumbent telecommunication company BT.

For some reason the subsequent programs have chosen to partner with accounting software companies and small business groups. The US program is no exception.

These partnerships are interesting as the software companies involved are threatened by online cloud services — both Intuit and MYOB have their business models of selling boxed software to small businesses under siege.

While Google regularly cite the Boston Consulting Group’s survey on the importance of websites to business, it seems most small operators don’t care as about half of small businesses don’t care about an online presence most developed countries.

In Australia, the Getting Aussie Business Online fell short of its 50,000 sign up target which indicates smaller enterprises still don’t see the point.

They may be right — for the local locksmith or lawn mowing service a Google Places account may be all they need rather than a relatively high maintenance website.

Part of the problem is that small business proprietors are probably the most time poor people on the planet, so filling in another set of forms is one of the last things they will do.

Were Google to link Google + for Business to their other services so information wasn’t being duplicated there would be a far quicker and greater take up of their services.

America, Get Your Business Online should be a useful service for some local enterprises but the real challenge for Google is to integrate their services to make it easier for smaller operations to use.

Enter the Dragon

The development of Aliyun, a mobile phone software package, illustrates how Chinese industry is moving up the value chain.

Once up a time our parents laughed at the tinny little Japanese cars – in the 1960s companies with silly names like Toyota and Mazda could never threaten world giants like Chrysler, Ford and General Motors.

Within two decades the Japanese had moved their products up the value chain leaving their American and European competitors running scared while governments in western countries offered the new leaders of the manufacturing industries bribes to set up plants in their towns and states.

It was always obvious China would follow the same course as the Japanese, particularly given the country’s position as the world’s cheap labor supplier had a time limit thanks to the demographic effects of the 1970s One Child Policy.

So it’s no surprise that Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce service, has built its own mobile operating system to compete with Google’s Android.

If Aliyun follows the Japanese development path, the first version is terrible but within five years – the development cycle of software is a lot quicker than that of cars – Alibaba will be a viable competitor to Google and Android.

Chinese developers moving into the mobile market is terrible news for the also rans like Microsoft and Blackberry. As Apple dominate the premium mobile sector and Android the mass market, it’s very hard for those running third or lower to achieve the critical mass needed to be competitive. Aliyun makes it much harder for them to gain any traction in high growth developing markets.

An interesting aspect of the Wall Street Journal’s story is how Aliyun is aimed at the domestic Chinese market for the moment. This is part of China’s economy moving away from being overly reliant on exports, having locally made products that meet the needs and aspirations of a growing domestic economy is an important part of this process.

Exports though will remain an important part of the Chinese economy for most of this century and value added products like Aliyun will be important for China as the cheap labour advantage erodes over the next two decades.

Businesses who think their markets are protected because their quality is better than their Chinese competitors may be in for a nasty shock, just like the 20th Century auto makers who dismissed the Japanese were in the 1970s.

Whether Aliyun is successful or not, we’re once again seeing many of the facile assumptions about Chinese growth being tested as the country’s economy and society evolves.

Do we really want fibre broadband?

Poor takeups in Tasmania and Kansas City raise the question of whether consumers want fast broadband

Despite the enthusiasm to be the first US city to have the high speed broadband offered by Google Fiber, it turns out interest in the Kansas City rollout is only running at half the rate expected.

This is consistent with the Australian NBN experience, with the takeup rate so far a dismal with less than 20% of Tasmanian properties passed taking the opportunity to get connected – only 10% of accessible premises are projected to sign up in 2012 according to NBNCo’s corporate plan.

Both the poor take up rates in the US and Australia raise the question “do we really want fibre broadband?”

The main difficulty are the incumbent players. In Kansas City reports are that Time Warner, the incumbent cable operator, is offering deals to lock their customers into existing plans.

A similar thing has happened in Australia with the major operators locking customers into existing ADSL and phone plans so subscribers face penalties if they churn across to an NBN service.

Most of those subscribers don’t need to churn right now, for most users the data plans they are currently on are fine and the NBN prices aren’t substantially different to the existing ADSL charges. In Kansas City, Google’s prices are lower, but the service is some way off and Time Warner can offer a connection now.

Another problem is demographics, neither Tasmania or Kansas City are major digital industry hubs and parts of both regions are economically distressed, which means they are less likely to take up the offer – or be able to make the investment – to get get connected.

That latter problem is the most concerning, as regional disadvantaged areas have the most to gain from being connected to broadband.

Just as towns lobbied in the 19th Century to get railways routed through their communities, in the 21st Century fast Internet connectivity is seen as essential to a region’s development.

But if individuals won’t get connected then it makes the business case for setting these networks up difficult to justify for corporations like Google or Governments like Australia. In future, it will make it harder to get incumbent network operators to replace aging copper infrastructure with modern and faster fibre.

As both projects mature, hopefully we’ll see a greater takeup, in the Australian case greater acceptance should be inevitable as the incumbent Telstra copper network is shut down and subscribers migrated across to NBN infrastructure.

The question does remain though of just how useful homes and businesses see fibre Internet connections to their homes, if they remain unconvinced about the value of a high speed data link then it maybe our communities miss out on the vital communications tool of the 21st Century.

Google announces eTown awards for Australian towns

How prepared are communities for the digital economy?

I don’t normally post media releases onto the site, but it appears there’s no posting of the Google eTowns announcement. As I’m writing a story for Technology Spectator on it, here’s the release.

One thing that leaps out when reading the media reports on this is how many outlets just copy and paste. Only the Fairfax entertainment reporter went to the effort of rewriting the release and adding some additional context. You have to wonder how long ‘churnalism’ can survive given readers are onto this laziness.

EMBARGOED UNTIL THURSDAY 30th AUGUST, 4:30PM (EST)

Perth wins top spot in Google’s eTown Awards

Western Australia capital beats out eastern states as centre of digital boom

Perth leads the list of Australia’s top 10 eTowns, Google announced today. This new Google award recognises and ranks those communities which are outpacing the rest of the country in having its small businesses use the web to connect with customers and grow.

The web is transforming all businesses in Australia, not just those typically considered to be “Internet businesses”. The digital economy is already worth as much as Australia’s iron ore exports, according to Deloitte Access Economics, and it’s forecast to grow by $20 billion to $70 billion by 2016.

To provide a snapshot of this vital economic activity, Google looked at more than 600 local government areas to analyse which communities are contributing the most to the digital economy. The top 5 metropolitan and top 5 regional eTowns for 2012 are:

Metropolitan

City of Perth, WA

City of Yarra, VIC

City of Adelaide, SA

North Sydney, NSW

Ryde, NSW

Regional

Byron Shire, NSW

Meander Valley, TAS

Cessnock, NSW

Wingecarribee Shire, NSW

Scenic Rim Regional Council, QLD

Federal Small Business Minister Brendan O’Connor, who is launching the inaugural eTown Awards at an event in West Perth today, said;

“The digital economy is fuelling Australia’s economic growth and it’s important businesses of every size are well equipped to take advantage of the potential. I hope this award encourages other small businesses to get online to connect with people who are actively looking for their products and services.”

Perth’s Lord Mayor Lisa Scaffidi said, “Perth may be known for its mining boom but this award shows that our businesses are actively grabbing hold of the digital boom. The City of Perth is proud of its eTown Award and I am delighted to represent an area whose businesses are so connected with both their local community and the entire world thanks to the web.”

Online advertising is a growing phenomenon and Google, through its online advertising and other services, is in a good position to act as a barometer for the strength of this commercial activity – particularly in small businesses. To come up with the eTown Awards list, Google analysed data on the number of local businesses in each local government area which are advertising with Google AdWords and/or have created a free website using Google and MYOB’s Getting Aussie Business Online initiative.

Byron Shire, home to the popular holiday destination, leads the regional eTowns list with a high proportion of accommodation, recreational hire and tours providers using the web to drive their businesses.

Claire Hatton, Head of Local Business for Google Australia said, “The eTown Award winners show that anyone anywhere can reap the benefits of the digital economy. These days being on the web is as important as having a phone. Australians expect to be able to seek out products and services online, and local businesses need to be found to compete.”

For more information about the eTown Award winners and for case studies on how local businesses are succeeding online and driving economic growth, visit www.google.com.au/ads/stories [NB: website will be available after embargo lifts].

Media are invited to attend the announcement of the eTown Awards with the Minister for Small Business, Perth’s Lord Mayor and Google Australia.

Local businesses located in each eTown may be available for interviews.

Thursday, 30th August at 2:00pm – 3:00pm
The Yoga Space
Shop 11, Seasons Arcade,
1251 Hay Street, West Perth.

To RSVP to the event or for interviews please contact:

Redacted

Notes to Editors

AdWords is Google’s online advertising system which enables businesses of all sizes to advertise relevant text ads next to Google search results. Businesses decide the text and their budget and only get charged when someone clicks on their ad.

The Google eTown award top ten list was created by comparing the number of small and medium sized enterprises that used AdWords in each local government area and/or have created a website using Google/MYOB’s Getting Aussie Business Online. The results have been normalised for the relative population of each LGA.

How much server space do Internet companies need to run their sites?

How much server space do companies like Google, Amazon, YouTube, Hotmail and Facebook need to run their sites?

“How much server space do companies like Google, Amazon, or YouTube, or for that matter Hotmail and Facebook need to run their sites?” is the question I’ve been asked to answer on ABC Radio National Drive this evening.

This isn’t a simple question to answer as the details of data storage are kept secret by most online services.

Figuring out how much data is saved in computer systems is a daunting task in itself and in 2011 scientists estimated there were 295 exabytes stored on the Internet, desktop hard drives, tape backup and other systems in 2007.

An exabyte is the equivalent of 50,000 years worth of DVD video, a typical new computer comes with a terabyte hard drive so one exabyte is the equivalent of a million new computers.

The numbers when looking at this topic are so great that petabytes are probably the best way of measuring data, a thousand of these make up an exabyte. A petabyte is the equivalent to filling up the hard drives of a thousand new computers.

Given cloud computing and data centres have grown exponentially since 2007, it’s possible that number has doubled in the last five years.

In 2009 it was reported Google was planning to have ten million servers and an exabyte of information. It’s almost certain that point has been passed, particularly given the volume of data being uploaded to YouTube which alone has 72 hours worth of video uploaded every minute.

Facebook is struggling with similar growth and it’s reported that the social media service is having to rewrite its database. Last year it was reported Facebook users were uploading six billion photos a month and at the time of the float on the US stock market the company claimed to have over a 100 petabytes of photos and video.

According to one of Microsoft’s blogs, Hotmail has over a billion mailboxes and “hundreds of petabytes of data”.

For Amazon details are harder to find, in June 2012 Amazon’s founder Jeff Bezos announced their S3 cloud storage service was now hosting a billion ‘objects’. If we assume the ‘objects’ – which could be anything from a picture to a database running on Amazon’s service – have an average size of a megabyte then that’s a exabyte of storage.

The amount of storage is only one part of the equation, we have to be able to do something with the data we’ve collected so we also have to look at processing power. This comes down to the number of computer chips or CPUs – Central Processing Units – being used to crunch the information.

Probably the most impressive data cruncher of all is the Google search engine that processes phenomenal amounts of data every time somebody does a search on the web. Google have put together an infographic that illustrates how they manage to answer over a billion queries a day in an average time of less than quarter of a second.

Google is reported to own 2% of the world’s servers and they are very secretive about the numbers, estimates based on power usage in 2011 put the number of servers the company uses at around 900,000. Given Google invests about 2.5 billion US dollars a year on new data centres, it’s safe to say they have probably passed the one million mark.

How much electricity all of this equipment uses is a valid question. According to Jonathan Koomey of Stanford University, US data centres use around 2% of the nation’s power supply and globally these facilities use around 1.5%.

The numbers involved in answering the question of how much data is stored by web services are mind boggling and they are growing exponentially. One of the problems with researching a topic like this is how quickly the source data becomes outdated.

It’s easy to overlook the complexity and size of the technologies that run social media, cloud computing or web searches. Asking questions on how these services work is essential to understanding the things we now take for granted.

Extending the knowledge graph

Big data takes baby steps on our desktops

Google’s latest search changes – introduced by Search Senior Vice President Amit Singhal – are another development, or baby step as Amit would call it, in making data more useful for us.

The flood of data that’s washed over us since the web arrived has left most of us befuddled. Increasingly, a basic keyword search just hasn’t been enough to find the information we’re looking for and we’ve had to trawl through pages of irrelevant information.

One of the aims of Google’s new features is to make data more relevant to a user – so if someone in the US types “Kings” into Google, they will be given details of the Los Angeles Kings hockey team or the TV series “Kings”.

Those details will include snippets of information about the topic. It could be the teams venue or the cast of the TV show. For tourist locations it could be some basic facts or transport information.

Amit is particularly proud of integrating tourist information and flight details into search and Gmail which indicates Google is beginning to leverage its buyout of the ITA travel booking network last year.

Google’s treatment of data reflects what’s happening with other services. At the recent Australian Xero conference and in an interview with MYOB executives, it’s been emphasised how knowledge is being aggregated to give customers and users better, more useful results.

With Google’s knowledge graph we’re seeing the realisation of what big data can do, there’s many baby steps ahead but there’s a lot of potential.

Writedowns and triumphalism

Sometimes headlines don’t tell the full story

The contrast between Microsoft’s and Google’s results released on Thursday attracted a lot of interest – for the first time in twenty years Microsoft posted a quarterly loss with Google’s profits continue to grow.

While there’s no doubt Microsoft are challenged by the effects of their lost decade and bad decisions made in that time, but the business itself is still extremely profitable.

Microsoft’s posted loss is due writing down 6 billion dollars in their aQuantive investment, an attempt to compete with Google in the online ad placement space.

Despite a six billion dollar writedown, Microsoft only posted a 500 million dollar loss showing the business is still making over 5 billion dollars profit each quarter.

Google on the other hand posted a profit of 2.8 billion, up 11% from the same period last year.

But Google also has some nasty writedowns coming in the future – the purchase of Motorola will see some substantial write downs of that 12 billion dollar deal. It’s conceivable that a very big portion of that investment will have to be written off as well.

Right now, Google’s seeing some benefit from the Motorola acquisition as the phone company’s cashflow is covering a decline in online advertising revenue, a threat to Google’s core business.

It’s easy to be triumphant when the headlines proclaim you’re a winner, but it’s often worthwhile looking at the fine print to see the real story.

Android’s corporate wins

Android is increasingly becoming the platform for business hardware.

Telstra’s launch of the second iteration of their T-Hub device and the Commonwealth Bank’s Albert tablet Point of Sale device are notable in their choice of operating system.

For the T-Hub, the first version was a bug plagued and slow proprietary system that which one of the reasons for the device’s market failure. Telstra’s second attempt runs on the Google Android system.

The Commonwealth Bank didn’t make Telstra’s mistake with the Albert device, instead choosing the open source system from the beginning.

Choosing an open platform like Android makes it easier for the developers and company to support the device and develop new products. There’s also the advantage of thousands manufacturers supplying hardware that runs on Android.

If we compare the costs of developing a proprietary system and sourcing hardware for it to run on, the choice of an open system is almost irresistible.

For Microsoft, this adoption of Google Android by corporations is another blow to Windows’ dominance of the market, a few years ago all of these devices would have been running a version of Windows but Android is a cheaper, more flexible and better suited to most of the tasks required.

It could be worse for Microsoft – Apple could be dominating this market. Apple though have had their own victory on consumer devices and increasingly companies have to cater for their customers and staff wanting an iPhone or iPad app.

Like on smartphones, the battle is now between Android and Apple.