Tag: google

  • Disrupting the smartphone market

    Disrupting the smartphone market

    It’s been a long time since we’ve had a three or four way war in the technology industry, with most sectors settling down into a two way fight between alternatives.

    Mozilla’s promised $25 smartphone project threatens to open the mobile industry into a three way battle just as it appeared the market had comfortably settled down into an Android and iOS duopoly.

    Now we see a three way race and possibly four if Samsung can get traction with its Tizen operating system that it’s bundling into the latest version of the Gear smartwatch.

    One positive aspect of the four way battle is that three of the participants – Firefox, Tizen and Android are relatively open so compatibility between them isn’t impossible.

    For Google and Apple though, this four way tussle presents a problem to their business plans.

    Apple’s iOS ambitions of putting the software in smarthomes, connected cars and, possibly most lucratively of all, into retailing with iBeacon are threatened by a fragmented market and a rapidly eroding market share.

    For Google, both Firefox and Tizen threaten the dominant position of their Android operating system that forms a plank in the company’s ambition to control the planet’s data and become an ‘identity service’.

    Worse still for Google’s information ambitions, Firefox is working with Deutsche Telekom on a security initiative that will lock away users’ data.

    So the stakes are high in the smartphone operating systems wars.

    It’s early days to forecast the demise of either Android or Apple iOS, which is unlikely in the short term, but if Firefox’s operating system does take hold it will mean the smartphone industry is about to become a lot more complex.

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  • Limitations of the cloud

    Limitations of the cloud

    Today I wrote a review for Business Spectator on the HP Chromebook 11, describing it as a nice computer that fits the market space left by the demise of the netbook.

    For the HP Chromebook 11, its failing lies in the cloud services it relies upon; if you don’t have a reliable internet connection, or you’re on a flight, then you lose access to many of your files.

    This isn’t a problem for office use, most workplaces have reliable internet connections and don’t have to worry about interruptions however when you head out on the road, things change.

    A particular bugbear is using the device while on a plane, in my case I discovered the files were listed in the offline docs folder but were ‘unavailable’ on trying to open them.

    This is irritating early in a three hour flight when you’re trying to get some work done.

    At least with flights Google has done a deal with Gogo internet for inflight access which indicates the company has identified this as a problem, although the arrangement does nothing to help air travellers outside the US.

    For the moment, cloud based services are great if you have reliable broadband internet access but for travellers things will continue to be problematic.

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  • Reinventing Moore’s Law

    Reinventing Moore’s Law

    Google attracted the headlines yesterday with their prototype smart contact lens that helps diabetes sufferers.

    The concept is an example of what’s possible with the next generation of tiny, low powered computers and illustrates how microchips can be slimmed down for a relatively dumb device.

    Liz Gannes at Re/Code received a briefing from Google on the details of the device and quotes project lead Brian Otis as saying that the lens is “the flip side of Moore’s Law.”

    Moore’s law

    For most of the microchip era the focus has been on increasing the number of transistors we could fit in a square inch of silicon, this was the basis of Moore’s law — that the number of transistors on integrated circuits will double every year.

    Co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, proposed this rule in 1965 and it has held fairly constant every since.

    Now we may be seeing the trend heading the other way as developers focus on what can be achieved with the bare minimum of computing power.

    Google’s smart contact lens shows how simplifying devices for specific tasks makes them more affordable and suitable for low power devices.

    While the internet of things won’t kill Moore’s Law, it does change the basis of how we think about advances in microchip technology.

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  • The Roadrunner Effect

    The Roadrunner Effect

    Fans of the roadrunner cartoon will remember how in almost every episode one of the characters, usually the coyote, would run over a cliff.

    A few seconds after running off the cliff they’d keep going and then, just as they realise their mistake, they’d plummet into the deep canyon.

    It’s similar for businesses – you can be a long way over the cliff’s edge before you realise you’re about to take a big fall.

    Yesterday’s post about Sensis and the squandering of ten billion dollars is a good example of the Roadrunner Effect in business.

    Sensis annual revenue and profit 1999-2013
    Sensis annual revenue and profit 1999-2013 (millions of dollars)

    While it was obvious from the early 2000s onwards that the Yellow Pages model of expensive small business advertising listing was doomed, Sensis boss Bruce Akhurst did an admirable job of keeping revenue flowing.

    Even more impressive is that the division managed to book close to a 50% gross profit most years during that period even when the revenues started to decline.

    A large part of Sensis’ success was in screwing more money out of its client base with enhanced ads, new categories and a better digital offering that tied into Google’s Adwords program.

    Unfortunately for Akhurst and his management team, economic gravity eventually claims even the luckiest or best run enterprise and Sensis was no different as small business started realising Yellow Pages advertising had become largely ineffective.

    In many respects Sensis is a good example of a once profitable business that fails in the face of technological change – the new technologies help it become more profitable at first, but eventually a changed marketplace kill the business.

    The question for those enterprises and industries is how long can the owners, managers and employees keep running before they realise the ground has dropped out from beneath them?

    It could even be entire countries that suffer from the Roadrunner Effect, it certainly appears that the game was up for the European PIIGS long before it became obvious to the governments and citizens. This may prove true for Australia as well.

    Either way, it’s worthwhile for business owners and managers to consider whether there’s a cliff face ahead even when revenues are accelerating.

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  • Google schmoogle – how one telco destroyed 9 billion dollars in shareholder funds

    Google schmoogle – how one telco destroyed 9 billion dollars in shareholder funds

    How one company blew nine billion dollars in shareholders’ equity is a business lesson on the value of timing and wise management.

    As a rule, telecommunications executives are an arrogant bunch and none are more so than Sol Trujillo – formerly of American West, French provider Orange and finally Telstra, Australia’s incumbent telecommunications operator.

    History shows that Telstra’s board, largely made up of dim-witted political appointees, had little idea of what they were getting when they hired Trujillo in 2005 but they soon found out as the brash American’s less than diplomatic style quickly alienated politicians and industry commentators alike.

    Trujillo though wasn’t particularly concerned about the sensibilities of passes for Australia’s business and political elites, he was happier to take on bigger players on the global stage and one of those was Google.

    Google Schmoogle

    Like telcos and media companies around the world in the mid-2000s, Telstra had a problem with its directories business as the World Wide Web was eroding the value of the Yellow and White Pages franchises.

    At the time many analysts were agitating for Sensis, Telstra’s directory division, to be sold off as a separate business. In 2005 it was valued at ten billion dollars which was a tidy sum for the telco as it rolled out its Next G network.

    Trujillo though had a better idea – Sensis would claw back the market by taking Google on with their own search engine.

    Sensis Search was born in November 2005 and the Telstra CEO dismissed questions about the wisdom of taking on the search engine giant with the comment, “Google Schmoogle.”

    Three years later, Telstra quietly accepted defeat with Sensis CEO Bruce Akhurst announcing a ‘commercial agreement’ with Google.

    Nielsen NetRatings at the time showed Google search being used by 9.3 million Australians compared to just 184,000 users for Sensis Search.

    In Telstra’s 2008 annual report, Sensis earned 2.1 billion dollars. On a 2.5x valuation, the division was worth five billion to Telstra’s shareholders at the time the search engine was closed down..

    The Dying Yelp

    Despite the setback, Sensis was able to struggle along for another decade on the back of its strong cashflow and legacy market position although income was steadily falling.

    In a desperate attempt to shore up its declining revenues, the company picked up the failed digital ventures of Australia’s newspaper duopoly and licensed operations from overseas startups like Yelp!

    Few of these acquisitions made sense and none of them were properly integrated into the declining directory media business.

    Finally a year ago, Sensis admitted they live in a digital era with Managing Director John Allen admitting what most industry observers knew a decade earlier;

    Until now we have been operating with an outdated print-based model – this is no longer sustainable for us. As we have made clear in the past, we will continue to produce Yellow and White Pages books to meet the needs of customers and advertisers who rely on the printed directories, but our future is online and mobile where the vast majority of search and directory business takes place.

    But it was all too late, the market had been lost along with the bulk of shareholders’ equity.

    Today Telstra announced a 70% sale of Sensis to US based Platinum Equity for $A454 million. The value of the entire business being $650 million – 7% of the division’s value nine years ago.With over nine billion Aussie dollars squandered on hubris and a failure to recognise a changed market place, Sensis stands as a good example of how valuable timing and good management are in business.Sol Trujillo though did very nicely, and the dim witted men who sat on Telstra’s board in 2005 will never be called to account for wasting so much of their shareholders’ money.

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