Tag: mobile

Seniors and smartphones

A phone for seniors shows how the smartphone market is evolving to meet people’s needs.

One of the opportunities with Android based smartphones is the ability for companies to offer modified phones aimed at certain industries and markets.

Ahead of next week’s Mobile World Congress, Fujitsu has announced a phone designed for seniors with larger icons and a less sensitive touchscreen.

The senior market is one that’s been ripe for savvy manufacturers as older people move onto smartphones and demand devices that meet their needs.

Over the years there had been attempts at mobile phones designed for seniors but most of them had been pretty lame and none had sold well.

The difference with smartphones is that most of the design changes are involved in the software and with open source platforms like Android and Ubuntu it makes it easier for companies to build easy to use devices.

Now it’s fairly easy to make these devices, we can expect to see more of them and as smartphones are becoming cheaper – a quick look at the Alibaba website shows wholesale prices for Android based phones as low as $10 (although you have to buy a container load of the things.)

There’s some opportunities for some smart entrepreneurs with these devices and we’ll see some interesting smartphones aimed at certain groups.

2013 – the year of the incumbents

Deloitte consulting’s technology, media and telecommunications predictions for 2013 sees smartphones, tablet computers and televisions causing a data crunch.

Bigger, quicker and more congested are the predictions from consulting firm Deloitte’s 2013 Technology, Media and Telecommunications survey.

In Sydney last Friday, the Australian aspects of the report were discussed by Clare Harding and Stuart Johnston, both partners in Deloitte’s Technology, Media and Telecommunications practice.

Most of the predictions tie into global trends, with the main exception being the National Broadband network which Stuart sees as addressing some of the bandwidth problems that telecommunication companies are going to struggle with in 2013.

Technology predictions

For the technology industry, Deloitte sees 2013 as being a consolidation of existing trends with the trend away from passwords continuing, crowdfunding  growing, conflict over BYOD policies and enterprise social networks finding their niches.

Some technologies are not dead; Deloitte sees the the PC retaining its place in the home and office, with over 80% of internet traffic and 70% of time still being consumed on desktop and laptop computers.

Deloitte also sees gesture based interfaces struggling as users stick with the mouse, keyboard and touchscreen.

Media predictions

Like 3D TV two years ago, the push from vendors is now onto smart TVs and high definition 4K televisions. As with 3DTV, much of the market share of smart and hard definition TVs is going to be because television manufacturers will include these features in base models.

Deloitte’s consultants see 2013 as one where “over the top” services (OTT) like Fetch TV and those provided by incumbents delivered start to get traction on smart TVs with 2% of industry revenues coming from these platforms.

Catch up TV is the main driver of the over the top services with 75% of traffic being around viewers watching previously broadcast content. This will see OTT services firmly become part of the incumbent broadcasters’ suite of services.

The bad news for some incumbents is the increase in ‘cord cutters’ as consumers move from pay-TV services to internet based content.

Smartphone and tablet computer adoption which is expected to treble will be a driver of OTT adoption as viewers move to ‘dual screen’ consumption, the connections required to deliver these services will put further load on already strained telco infrastructure which is going to see prices rise as providers respond to shortages.

Telecommunications predictions

The telecommunications industry is probably seeing the greatest disruption in 2013. With smartphones dominating the market world wide as price points collapse.

One of the big product lines pushed at this year’s CES was the “phablet” – while the Deloitte consultants find it interesting hey don’t seem convinced that the bigger form factors will displace the standard 5″ screen size during 2013.

As a consequence of the smartphone explosion is that apps will become more pervasive and telcos will try and build in their own walled gardens with All You Can App to lock customers onto their services.

With smartphones moving down market, largely because of the cost benefits for manufacturers, Deloitte also predicts many new users won’t access data plans given they’ll use the devices as sophisticated ‘feature phones’.

Data usage will continue to grow, particularly with the adoption of LTE/4G networks, although much of the growth will still be on the older 2 and 3G networks as lower income users choose plans which don’t require high speed data.

The looming data crunch

There is a cost to booming data usage and that’s the looming shortage of bandwidth, Deloitte sees this as getting far worse before it gets better.

With bandwidth becoming crowded, prices are expected to rise. In the United States, the “all you can eat” nature of internet plans is being replaced with “pay as you go” while in Australia data plans are becoming stingier and per unit costs are rising.

The London Olympics were cited as an example of how the shortages are appearing – while the Olympic site itself was fine, outside events like the long distance cycle races strained infrastructure along the route. We can expect this to become common as smartphones push base station capacity.

Where to in 2013

Deloitte’s view of where the telecom, technology and media industries are heading in 2013 is that incumbents will take advantage of their market positions as technology runs ahead of available bandwidth.

In Australia, governments might be disappointed as telcos internationally aren’t interested in bidding huge amounts for bandwidth. As Stuart Johnston says “globally what we’re seeing is that carriers are not as willing to spend. It’s not the cash cow that governments are expecting.”

For government and consumers, we’re going to get squeezed a little bit harder.

While things do look slightly better for telcos, broadcasters and other incumbents there’s always the unexpected which eludes all but the most outrageous pundits, it’s hard to see what the disruptive technologies of 2013 will be but we can be sure they are there.

The main takeaway from the 2013 Deloitte report is that smart TVs, 4K broadcasting, tablet computers and smartphones are going to be the biggest drivers for the technology, media and telecommunications industry for this year. There’s some opportunities for some canny entrepreneurs.

Comparing Management costs

How much are big corporations spending on administration and marketing costs?

Telecoms analyst site Asymco has a look at how much Samsung spends on marketing compared to other tech companies, particularly Apple, with Coca-Cola added as a sanity check from outside the bubble.

While the results are stunning with Samsung dwarfing the others, the Asymco story also touches on the total cost of sales and general administration expenses with the observation that, as a proportion of revenue, Sumsung’s are soaring while Apple’s are declining.

Teasing those figures out a bit more is interesting, when we track the sales and general administration costs of all the business we see that with the exception of Apple they’ve been remarkable flat in straight dollar terms over the last three years.

Of course this comparison is a little unfair as this is an absolute number, not as a proportion of revenue and as Horace Dediu points out in the Asymco posts Apple’s expenses as a ratio to sales has fallen.

For companies like HP, Dell and Microsoft where sales have been stagnant or falling it might be that the ratio is rising while spending is flat.

We’ll tease these figures out over the next few days.

In the meantime, the fact that Samsung is spending such an awesome amount on marketing should cause us to treat Android sales figures with caution as that spend in undoubtedly inflating their sales figures. More on that in the future as well.

Open Table and free mobile restaurant sites

Mobile websites are becoming essential to the hospitality industry.

One of the big challenges facing restaurants is how customers are moving to the mobile web, diners are using their smartphones to find establishments and expect to make bookings directly.

To help their customers deal with this move to smartphones, restaurant booking service Open Table is offering a free mobile website for their clients so establishments can have sites that are usable on smaller screens.

Whether this is worthwhile depends upon whether the restaurant is already using Open Table, the monthly fees are quite high at $200 per month plus a relatively low $1 commission per cover so it certainly isn’t worth subscribing to their service just to get a mobile optimised website.

For restaurants already using their service it’s best to check if your existing website already has a mobile feature as having two online addresses is only going to confuse customers.

Businesses using WordPress based sites just need to install a plug like WordPress Touch which detects when a smaller screen is viewing your site to change.

Open Table itself is somewhat of an internet old timer having been founded in 1998, making it one of the Tech Wreck survivors, and listed on the NASDAQ market eleven years later.

That a company like Open Table is recognising a mobile web presence is essential for hospitality businesses should be a further warning to restaurants, cafes and hotels that they need to take smartphones seriously.

Just as thirty years ago it was essential to have a Yellow Pages listing, today you’re missing out on customers if they can’t find you on their phones.

Regardless of whether you’re using Open Table or any other service, you need to have some form of mobile site working for you.

Can Microsoft beat the PC marketplace’s structural decline?

Windows 8 faces big challenges in replacing Microsoft’s cash cows

In New York on Thursday Microsoft will have a marathon launch of their Windows 8 system and the futures of many of their hardware partners lie on the success of the new system.

For Microsoft, Windows 8 could be the last throw of the dice for the desktop operating system that has sustained the company for thirty years.

The figures aren’t good for Windows as Microsoft’s 2012 profit and loss shows, here are the figures broken out by operating unit segment from the company’s annual report.

Year Ended June 30, 2012 2011 2010
Revenue  bn $  bn $  bn $
Windows & Windows Live Division 18,818 18,787 18,789
Operating Income (Loss)
Windows & Windows Live Division 11,908 11,971 12,193

The core Windows & Windows Live Division has stagnant revenues and a slowly declining profit margin. We’ll leave the huge losses in the online division for a future post.

Since the days of the first MS-DOS deal with IBM, Microsoft’s core business has been the licensing of operating systems to PC manufacturers and now that model is in trouble.

For instance Dell had an 8% drop in revenue resulting in a worrying 22% drop in operating profit, their PC dominated consumer division suffered a fat 22% drop in sales and recorded a miniscule .5% profit margin. Similarly Asus had 25% drop in sales to record a 2011 loss.

The pain being suffered by PC manufacturers’ sales and margins will almost certainly be shared by Microsoft as companies like Dell, HP and Asus simply can’t afford to pay the licensing fees which have sustained the Redmond business model for so long.

Microsoft and their partners hope – or pray – that the PC decline is a temporary hiccup in computer sales similar to the traditional lull seen before the release of a new system.

History’s not on their side with research company Asymco expecting sales of tablet computers to overtake PCs sometime in late 2013.

This is not a cyclical trend – the PC industry is in structural decline; the traditional Windows upgrade cycle is dead and Google are running interference with their Chromebook networked laptops.

Moving onto tablets and smartphones in this light makes sense for Microsoft and given the PC manufacturers have failed dismally to deliver decent tablet computers or phones over the last 15 years so it’s understandable the software giant wanted to develop their own hardware or team up with a struggling company like Nokia.

The declining margins in personal computers means we’re seeing the end of the Windows desktop ecosystem. With the rise of the web and cloud computing the type of operating system we use is like arguing between Toyota and BMW drivers; one might be more prestigious but both will get you where you want to go.

For Microsoft the challenge is to replace those Windows licensing rivers of gold with similar revenue streams through their phone and tablet products but with Apple and Google already dominating those fields, is it too late for the company that dominated personal computing? The next six months will tell us.

ABC Weekend Computers – should you buy an iPhone 5?

On ABC Sydney this weekend we look at whether the new iPhone is for you.

With the usual hooplah, Apple announced their new iPhone last week. Should consumers drop their existing phones and buy the new iPhone?

On ABC 702 Sydney Weekend computers this Sunday, September 16 from 10.15am Paul Wallbank and Simon Marnie will be looking at the choices in the smartphone market.

Some of the topics we’ll discuss include;

We love to hear from listeners so feel free call in with your questions or comments on 1300 222 702 or text on 19922702.

If you’re on Twitter you can tweet 702 Sydney on @702sydney and Paul at @paulwallbank.

Should you not be in the Sydney area, you can stream the broadcast through the 702 Sydney website and call in anyway. Everyone’s views are welcome.

Enter the Dragon

The development of Aliyun, a mobile phone software package, illustrates how Chinese industry is moving up the value chain.

Once up a time our parents laughed at the tinny little Japanese cars – in the 1960s companies with silly names like Toyota and Mazda could never threaten world giants like Chrysler, Ford and General Motors.

Within two decades the Japanese had moved their products up the value chain leaving their American and European competitors running scared while governments in western countries offered the new leaders of the manufacturing industries bribes to set up plants in their towns and states.

It was always obvious China would follow the same course as the Japanese, particularly given the country’s position as the world’s cheap labor supplier had a time limit thanks to the demographic effects of the 1970s One Child Policy.

So it’s no surprise that Alibaba, China’s biggest e-commerce service, has built its own mobile operating system to compete with Google’s Android.

If Aliyun follows the Japanese development path, the first version is terrible but within five years – the development cycle of software is a lot quicker than that of cars – Alibaba will be a viable competitor to Google and Android.

Chinese developers moving into the mobile market is terrible news for the also rans like Microsoft and Blackberry. As Apple dominate the premium mobile sector and Android the mass market, it’s very hard for those running third or lower to achieve the critical mass needed to be competitive. Aliyun makes it much harder for them to gain any traction in high growth developing markets.

An interesting aspect of the Wall Street Journal’s story is how Aliyun is aimed at the domestic Chinese market for the moment. This is part of China’s economy moving away from being overly reliant on exports, having locally made products that meet the needs and aspirations of a growing domestic economy is an important part of this process.

Exports though will remain an important part of the Chinese economy for most of this century and value added products like Aliyun will be important for China as the cheap labour advantage erodes over the next two decades.

Businesses who think their markets are protected because their quality is better than their Chinese competitors may be in for a nasty shock, just like the 20th Century auto makers who dismissed the Japanese were in the 1970s.

Whether Aliyun is successful or not, we’re once again seeing many of the facile assumptions about Chinese growth being tested as the country’s economy and society evolves.

Android’s corporate wins

Android is increasingly becoming the platform for business hardware.

Telstra’s launch of the second iteration of their T-Hub device and the Commonwealth Bank’s Albert tablet Point of Sale device are notable in their choice of operating system.

For the T-Hub, the first version was a bug plagued and slow proprietary system that which one of the reasons for the device’s market failure. Telstra’s second attempt runs on the Google Android system.

The Commonwealth Bank didn’t make Telstra’s mistake with the Albert device, instead choosing  the open source system from the beginning.

Choosing an open platform like Android makes it easier for the developers and company to support the device and develop new products. There’s also the advantage of thousands manufacturers supplying hardware that runs on Android.

If we compare the costs of developing a proprietary system and sourcing hardware for it to run on, the choice of an open system is almost irresistible.

For Microsoft, this adoption of Google Android by corporations is another blow to Windows’ dominance of the market, a few years ago all of these devices would have been running a version of Windows but Android is a cheaper, more flexible and better suited to most of the tasks required.

It could be worse for Microsoft – Apple could be dominating this market. Apple though have had their own victory on consumer devices and increasingly companies have to cater for their customers and staff wanting an iPhone or iPad app.

Like on smartphones, the battle is now between Android and Apple.

Is Microsoft’s Surface Tablet Vaporware?

Will we see the Microsoft Surface released this year?

In the early 1990s the term “vapourware” appeared, it was born out of big software vendors announcing mythical products with a whole new bunch of features which the opposition already had.

Usually that next great product never appeared; it was just a ploy to stop customers defecting to the competition’s superior product.

There were a number of ways to spot vapourware – the lack of a working prototype, vague release dates and no firm pricing being just three.

Earlier this week, Microsoft brought tears to the eyes of grizzled IT industry veterans who missed the days of regular vapourware announcements with the “launch” of their Surface tablet computer.

After springing the event at short notice on the tech media, forcing the poor petals to travel to Los Angeles rather than their usual haunts of Silicon Valley, Manhattan or Texas and then starting the event late, Microsoft added insult to injury by not even letting the journalists play with a working version of the Surface, let alone take one home to play with.

One of the impressive things about vapourware are the specifications and this is true with the Microsoft Surface. The specifications of the base model Windows RT are about the same as the base model iPad with the added benefit of a keyboard, USB and Micro SD ports.

Looking past the hype, it’s clear Microsoft are having trouble with their strategy of a unified operating system across smartphones, tablets and traditional PCs, which has forced them to announce two different versions of the Surface, running different operating systems on different chipsets.

Having potentially incompatible products makes it even more important for tech journos and early adopters to play with the new devices to see how well they work – that version one of any new product doesn’t work well is another lesson from the 1990s IT industry.

In the spirit of vapourware, Microsoft hasn’t mentioned what either version of the Surface will cost, which probably indicates they don’t know what the final sticker price will be either.

Despite being funny, there was a serious side to vapourware – in the 1990s businesses often held off purchasing decisions or upgrades as they waited for promised products or features to arrive.

While eager customers waited for products that never arrived, their productivity slipped and technologies that should have been adopted earlier ended up coming late to the office desktop.

For Microsoft investors, the nature of the Surface announcement should be disturbing as the vapourware business tactic only works for incumbents in a strong market position and the software giant is anything but strong in the tablet computer market.

While it would be good to see a credible competitor to the iPad, it’s going to be difficult to take Microsoft seriously until we see some working versions that we can play with.

The lessons from the 1990s computer industry are clear – don’t fall for vapourware and buy what works for your business today.

Disrupting the markets

Mary Meeker’s All Things D tech industry presentation raises some fascinating points.

Generally it’s not a good idea to have nearly a hundred slides in a presentation, but Mary Meeker’s overviews of the tech industry are so rich in data it’s impossible not to spend a weekend looking over the entire sldieshow.

Last week Mary gave her presentation at the All Things Digital conference and as usual she identified a range of trends and issues in the technology industries.

Smartphone upsides

Still the early days of smartphone adoption, with 6 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide but only 954 million smartphones activated.

This adoption is driving mobile revenues with income growing at 153% per year. Although as she shows later, this is not necessarily good news for everybody.

Print media’s continued decline

A constant in Mary’s presentations over recent years the key slide in has been ad spend versus usage across various mediums.

In this year’s version we still print still vastly over represented with 25% of US advertising while TV remains static, although Henry Blodget at Business Insider thinks the tipping point might be arriving for broadcasters.

Online’s thin returns

One of the things that really jumps out is how thin onlie revenues really are. In annual terms services like Pandora and Zynga are making between 6 and 25 dollars per active user over a year.

These tiny revenues indicate the problem content creators have in making money on the web, after the gatekeepers like Pandora or Spotify have taken their cut, there isn’t much left to go around.

Facebook and Google are also encountering problems as users move to mobile where revenues are even smaller than those from desktop users. This is constraining both services’ earnings growth.

Disrupting markets and governments

Mary’s presentation goes on to look at the disruption web and mobile technologies are bringing to various markets – it’s a good overview of whats changing right now and the products driving the changes.

It’s not just markets that are being disrupted with Mary also looking the US’s budget position and entitlement culture. This in itself is a massive driver of change which will have a deep effect on our lives regardless of where we live.

Are we in a bubble?

Mary finishes up with a look at whether we’re in a tech bubble or not.

Her view is that we are and we aren’t – there are silly valuations of companies in the private market however the poor performance of tech stocks on the stock market indicate the public aren’t being fooled.

One telling statistic is the only 2% of companies have accounted for nearly all the wealth creation of the 1,720 US tech IPOs between 1980 and 2002. There’s little to indicate much has changed in the decade since.

The optimism in funding new businesses is based in the disruption they are bringing to markets and industries – you only need one eBay or Google in your portfolio and you’re a legend, if not filthy rich.

Both the economic and technological changes are disrupting our own businesses and this is why its worth reading and understanding Mary Meeker’s presentations if only to be prepared for the inevitable changes.

Bringing your own device and business change

how the Bring Your Own Device philosophy is changing the businesses operate.

Two years ago I realised that the management trend of staff bringing their own computers to work – BYOD – was more than a fad when I noticed executives were bringing the then new iPads to meetings.

Most of these executives worked in organisations where IT departments had waged war on employees connecting their own equipment to the corporate network, so this was a serious development in the computing world.

In many ways employees had been bringing their own technology devices to work for years. It was, and still is, quite common to see public servants and those working for other bureaucratic organisations arriving at meetings with an underfeatured work supplied handset and their own smartphone.

IT managers hated this as they saw those private devices as a security risk and another headache for their overworked staff to deal with.

When the iPod was enthusiastically adopted by the executive suite, the game was over for those IT managers. Suddenly they had to deal with these devices and the issues involved.

At a seminar run by systems integrator Logicalis earlier this week looked at some of the issues around BYOD for companies. What was striking in their presentations were the need for HR and legal departments to be part of the process for adopting this philosophy.

The BYOD philosophy is a big jump for organisations as it means relaxing controls on employees and for many managers that is the biggest challenge.

Part of that challenge is controlling the organisation’s data on devices that could be going anywhere and doing anything.

While companies like Logicalis and Citrix address this with remote desktop applications that create a virtual Windows desktop on the employee’s device, networking giant Cisco offer their ISE devices to run “identity services” that set up rules controlling what staff can access and where they can access it from.

Cisco Australia’s Chief Technology Officer Kevin Bloch gave a good round earlier this week up of where they see BYOD driving business. To Cisco, the move to mobile devices is irresistible as shown in their Global Mobile Data Traffic Update.

Interesting both Kevin and the Logicalis speakers see BYOD as being part of the recruitment process. Increasingly younger workers expect they will be able to use their own devices rather than relying upon employer issued workstations and mobile phones.

According to Kevin, Cisco’s research is finding many employees would trade salary for the right to bring their own device which is something that should grab the attention of budget constrained managers.

This also ties into other employer trends such as Activity Based Workplaces where companies provide hot desks and staff are expected to store their items away at the end of each workday.

Ross Miller of the GPT Group described how this is another trend driving the paperless office as staff using hot desks find packing away files and paperwork each day is an unnecessary hassle.

What we’re seeing with businesses adopting BYOD policies is a big change in the way places operate and this has consequences for all divisions of an organisation from HR and legal through to marketing and corporate affairs. It’s a genuine game changer.

How the BYOD philosophy is changing business is good example of technology driving our habits and work practices in ways we don’t always anticipate.

One thing is for sure, the workplace of the future is far more autonomous and diverse than those we’ve been used to for the last hundred years, the businesses who don’t adapt are those being left behind.

Locking in the mobile market

Where are the next challenges for a phone industry that’s re-invented itself?

Mobile phone carrier Vodafone yesterday announced its purchase of Cable and Wireless, the company that rolled out the telegraph and phone networks that connected Britain’s empire.

Vodafone’s purchase is one of the final phases of the telco industry’s long term restructure where customers – both home and business users – have switched from land lines to mobile devices.

It’s long been acknowledged the profit in this market lies in devices and data usage which is why Cable and Wireless steadily declined over the past quarter century.

While there’s good money to be made in running undersea cables, which is what C & W did, the big profit is in delivering the data over the “last mile” to the customer.

For most customers, that last mile is the radius around a cellphone base station.

In Australia, this is best illustrated by Telstra’s undisguised glee at being able to offload their legacy copper network and backbone services to the government owned National Broadband Network allowing the former land line monopoly to focus on the mobile, data customer.

That data aspect is important too, one of the big changes in telecommunications over the last 25 years has been the rise of data.

A quarter century ago, voice communications were the main traffic of these networks. For companies like Cable and Wireless, data was a profitable sideline with services like Telex and ISDN being lucrative business niches.

Those rivers of gold distracted incumbent telcos in the early years of the public Internet as they tried to protect those expensive data plans and discouraged customers from using the net.

Over time, a new breed of Internet Service Providers rose who could supply those data services customers wanted.

Ironically, the same thing has happened with mobile phone manufacturers and the rise of the smartphone. Unlike the incumbent telcos, they haven’t adapted.

The incumbents phone manufacturers like Nokia and Motorola missed the rise of data communications and the mobile web as the iPhone and Android devices delivered the portable utility that “dumb phones” couldn’t deliver.

For Nokia, that miss appears fatal with the company rapidly running out of cash as their smartphone devices fail in the marketplace and margins collapse in the sectors they still dominate.

Research In Motion – the manufacturers of the Blackberry phone – are in the same trap. While their devices were data orientated they were more akin to corporate “feature phones” where they did one or two things well but couldn’t deliver the full features mobile phone users increasingly wanted.

The rise of the iPhone threatened Blackberry’s market and the arrival of the iPad with applications like Evernote killed most of the product’s demand.

Blackberry and Nokia’s decline while companies like Telstra and Vodafone survive – not to mention massive profits of companies like Mexico’s Telefonica – illustrate the value of government licenses to telcos and the breathing space it gives the management of these licensees.

We shouldn’t underestimate though the risks to all these businesses if they don’t adapt.