Tag: retail

Big Data, retail and the 80/20 rule

Retailers are using big data to apply the 80/20 rule – or Pareto’s Law – to reduce returns and shrinkage

Sorting out troublesome customers is one of the major benefits that big data offers businesses, a profitable example lies in reducing returns to online stores.

One of the banes of online retail is dealing with returns, the industry pioneers overcame objections to shopping over the web through no-questions-asked returns policies that’s trained customers into expecting they can send items back regardless of the reason.

The Frankfurt School of Finance and Management’s Christian Schulze surveyed nearly six million internet transactions and found returns are effectively costing online retailers half their profits, as The Economist reports.

Leaving that sort of money on the table is painful for any business and online retailers are trying to find ways to reduce those return costs by sacking their customers;

But this risks a backlash: rejected shoppers are likely to rush to the newspapers or social media to complain—and their gripes may turn other, more profitable customers against the firm.

Much of this comes down to Pareto’s Law, that 80% of your problems will come from just 20% of customers, and a key imperative in business is to get the troublesome, high maintenance customers buying from your competitors without being too obvious.

Identifying those troublesome customers is where Big Data comes into play, coupled with intelligent analytic tools businesses are able to identify who is more likely to return a product or dispute a bill before the sale is made.

As the Wall Street Journal reports many online retailers are exploring ways they can reduce the return rates using Big Data and analytics.

By giving buyers access to their purchasing history stores are able to suggest when a customer is buying something that isn’t appropriate or the wrong size.

The WSJ cites fashion retailer Rue La La, which lost $5 million in returns last year, as an example.

For instance, a customer who has continuously bought the same brand of dress shirts in both a small and a medium might see a note pop up saying: “Are you sure you want to order the small? The last five times you ordered both sizes, you only kept the medium,” Chief Executive Steve Davis said.

Another tactic for retailers is to discourage frequent returners from buying high margin goods through targeted vouchers and offers. One point the WSJ article makes is how differential pricing is going to be applied – if you regularly return goods then expect not to be offered the best discounts when you visit the retailer’s website.

Many returns though are the result of genuinely dissatisfied clients and this is where improving customer service kicks in, the WSJ describes how some retailers are now providing video tutorials for their products and increasingly smarter customer service can be used to avoid returns.

With the increased sophistication of customer analytics and support tools, we’ll see online retailers squeeze more profit out of their businesses as well as look after their most profitable clients.

The problem for ‘bricks and mortar’ retailers not deploying new technologies is they won’t have the tools to compete with their savvier online rivals.

A good example of legacy managers struggling in the face of chronic under investment are Australian retailers and this week the Myer department store chain had to shut down its online outlet after the system collapsed.

There is no timeline on when Myer’s website will be back up. It’s a tough time for those retailers that haven’t invested in modern system and an even tougher time for companies with legacy managers like those at Myers.

The use of big data in analysing shopping behaviours is one area where well managed retailers will out perform their poorer rivals, it’s hard to see how companies like Myer will survive in the modern era of business.

Similar posts:

  • No Related Posts

Shops of doom

Some locations are the kiss of death of businesses.

“Location, location, location” is the mantra for real estate investors and property speculators, that rule is just as true for those setting up a shop or cafe.

When you pay attention to the retail strips or malls in your suburbs you’ll notice how some locations are doomed to fail.

The featured picture in this post is what should be a good location in the centre of a dining strip in an affluent Sydney suburb. Just fifty metres either side of the premises are successful and long running cafes.

However this spot has had five different business fail in the last three years and in the past decade hasn’t had a single stable tenant.

The question is what causes this? Is it because the landlord’s are greedy?

In some cases it is, the featured premises had a stable tenant in a very nice and well priced fish restaurant for many years. When the landlord jacked up the rent, the seafood cafe moved out and the place has struggled ever since.

Something many people have mentioned to me over the years is how difficult they find it to negotiate on price with landlords over commercial space with the owners very reluctant to budge on rents.

Often, the letting agents are prepared to throw in sweeteners like fitout costs, rental holidays or paying utilities but it’s very rare that the headline rent will be negotiated down.

Part of this could be due to the properties being valued as a multiple of their monthly rents; so if the leasing rate falls, so too does the property value which is bad news for the landlord and their bank.

When landlords get too greedy properties lie vacant for a long time. A good example is nearby to the featured property.

closed-bike-shop-in-bad-retail-location

The bike shop that occupied this unit for about 12 months moved out over two years ago and before that it had been vacant for a long time. Despite being on a busy commuter strip in an affluent suburb, it’s a lousy location with poor visibility, truly awful parking and lousy amenities.

In a genuine free market the rent should fall until a business that can operate in such a low turnover location can afford it, that no entrepreneur can make the numbers work indicates the asking price is too high.

Although even the cheapest rents won’t help a truly blighted location which is why it might be a good idea to ask around the local shops and residents to see how a location has performed before signing that lease.

It would be a shame to doom your business because of a lousy choice of location.

Similar posts:

Pay Pal and the Modern Spice routes

PayPal trace the modern online spice routes with some important messages for retailers.

Online payments company PayPal has released a paper on the The Modern Spice Routes which describes the pattern of online trade across the US, Germany, UK, China, Brazil and Australia.

The results are a snapshot of how online commerce patterns are evolving.

PayPal commissioned the Nielsen Company to survey 6,000 online shoppers about their cross border online buying habits to determine some of the characteristics of global internet commerce.

What immediately stands out in the report is the United States’ dominance with 45% of global market share, China follows with 26%.

At the bottom of the pack is Australia with 16% and, surprisingly, Germany with 13%.

The US itself is an interesting study with the most preferred overseas shopping destination being the United Kingdom followed by China.

Why are people shopping online?

American respondents were overwhelming shopping overseas to access more variety, with 80% of respondents citing the reasons for shopping offshore being “more variety that cannot be found locally”.

Finding more variety was the key factor in all the markets. Even in countries like China and Australia were respondents cited saving money as their main reason for shopping internationally online, more diversity in offerings came a very close second.

That in itself show the opportunity for companies selling internationally  – be unique and don’t offer what can be found at the local WalMart or Tesco.

Illustrating this, the PayPal report cited Australia’s Black Milk clothing and Germany’s Hatshopping as two international success stories.

Intra-region trading

An understated point with the report is just what proportion of international shopping is of each country’s spend – in the United States’ case it is only 18% while in Australia it’s 35%.

Illustrating those internal trading patterns are the British and German figures that show online shopping in other European nations is substantial, so intra-EU trade is a considerable factor.

Similarly, the second popular destination, after the United States, for Chinese online shoppers is the Hong Kong SAR. In fact the Chinese statistics show that intra-Asian trade is just as substantial as EU commerce with Japan, Korea and Singapore all feature highly on the list of shopping destinations.

This illustrates a problem for Australia as it has neither the United States’ massive domestic market or a group of closely integrated neighbours and the high level of international online shopping indicates just how poorly local merchants are doing with their internet strategies.

Indeed, for Australia that the proportion of online shoppers buying overseas is so high should be a worry for local merchants.

Today’s modern trade of bulk carriers, courier companies and shipping containers is very different to the spice routes of Marco Polo’s day, the world is evolving around new trading patterns right now.

For businesses like Australia’s retailers those changed trade routes may not be kind to those who can’t change.

Similar posts:

  • No Related Posts

Fashion’s move to digital commerce

The fashion and retail industries are undergoing radical change as ‘digital commerce’ takes hold according to Dasault Systemes’ Susan Olivier.

How does 3D design change the fashion industry? Susan Olivier of Dassault Systemes sees ‘digital commerce’ driving fundamental changes to fashion and retail businesses.

For slower retailers and fashion houses, this move to digital commerce threatens their very existence.

‘Digital commerce’ is more than just e-commerce in the view of Olivier, Vice President of Consumer Goods and Retail of the French 3D design software house, it’s a bringing together of technologies that alter the relationship between customers, retailers and designers along with the manufacturing and logistics companies that bring the products to market.

Retail’s two big challenges

Olivier sees the two biggest challenges to the retail industry as being the 2009 downturn of the global economy and the rise of the connected consumer.

The downturn forced manufacturers and retailers to examine their supply chains, product design and manufacturing to squeeze out inefficiencies along with understanding consumer sentiment better.

Designing for inner beauty

“They found they could work differently with suppliers, how do I design for cost?” Asks Olivier, “how do I work on designing for what we call for ‘inner beauty’ and maybe change the inner design to take out costs without hurting performance or visual performance?” Olivier asked.

“Those brands who survived are those who learned to do both things very well – work better with consumers and work better with their supplier base.”

Who has the power?

“Consumers on the other hand found ‘we have the power’ coming out of the down global economy,” says Olivier. “When consumers buy on price then brand loyalty gets strained.”

The connected consumer also adds further risks for retailers as customers are now better informed than ever before.

“If retailers aren’t careful, she knows more about the product than the poor staff on the floor does and she knows which stores have it in inventory than the poor staff on the floor does.”

Bringing together the digital continuum

One of Olivier’s areas of expertise is in Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) – planning the design, manufacturing, marketing and retirement of various products.

A notable feature of modern the modern consumer goods industry is the compressed life cycle of products, “it used to be a life cycle was 18 months,” says Olivier. “The goal was to get it below 12 months, for many brands it’s now 12 weeks.”

A scenario Olivier gives is the design process where a rapid virtual prototype can be shared across manufacturers, store managers and focus group.

“I can create models in 3D and look at different options,” says Olivier. “How’s the outsoul of this shoe going to perform with this upper? Is it comfortable if I make changes? I might send a sample to a 3D printer before I make the mould.”

“I can share it with my visual display teams and my store managers and I can share it before I commit to production and get feedback from my stores and I can share it with my consumer focus groups. ”

“Now I have the power to do that weeks or months in advance before having to put the knife to the goods.” States Olivier, “that’s a completely different way of connecting the way companies think about product, bring it to life and bring it to market.”

“Those are the kinds of things we’re enabling when I talk about bringing together the different points of the digital continuum.”

“Now I’m in store I want to take the same images to educate my sales staff. I want them to take a tablet device and show the consumer what is in inventory, not just in this store, and I can have it shipped to their home within 24 hours.”

“So that’s why I’m saying ‘digital commerce’,” says Olivier. “It could be online, it could be a kiosk in the store, it could be an iPad the sales assistant has in front of them.”

Susan Olivier’s digital commerce model is the present day reality of retail – today’s merchant has to be across consumers’ sentiment along with working closely with suppliers to get products to get products to the customer quickly. The old ways of selling goods, particularly fashion, are over.

Similar posts:

  • No Related Posts

Bernie Brookes’ Blues – the inability of managers to learn from failure

Business leaders need to accept and learn from failure if their organisations are to survive.

One of the notable aspects of modern corporations is the inability of executives to identify failure.

A good example of this is the Australian department store industry. Like most Aussie industries it’s dominated by two major players, Myer and David Jones,  both of whom have struggled with the realities of modern retailing.

David Jones is notable for deciding the web was too much hard work in 2001 while Myer’s management whines about sales taxes despite struggling with antiquated point of sales systems and an inadequate online presence that still lags its international competitors.

This week illustrates both companies’ state of executive denial, yesterday Myer’s CEO Bernie Brookes blamed falling profits and escalating costs on the GST and labour rates – the idea that management should take some of the blame for increased overheads didn’t seem to occur to Bernie.

One telling comment of Brookes’ are his comments about productivity and global competitiveness.

“The sector would benefit from reform to help drive productivity and become more competitive in an increasingly global marketplace,” said Brookes.

Brookes’ comment illustrates just how the Australian corporate sector has flubbed the transition to operating in a high cost economy.

At the same time Bernie Brooks was bemoaning the state of the world, David Jones CEO Paul Zahra was opening a new small format store and – like all champions of free enterprise – blamed the government for slow sales.

David Jones’ new store is interesting in itself, notably this comment in the Sydney Morning Herald story;

Mr Zahra said the store had been especially catered to the wealthy demographics of the Malvern area with a focus on high margin items.

“Higher margin categories are what we have focused on and low margin categories are available in store but in the online system so we can get it shipped directly to people’s homes.

“And we get a better gross profit per square metre as a result.”

Welcome to the Twenty-First Century, Mr Zahra.

Both Zahra and Brookes’ statements show they learn nothing from failure, indeed they don’t even seem to acknowledge they have failed.

It’s understandable in modern corporate life not to acknowledge failure, in the alpha-male environment of the executive suite admitting failure is a form of professional suicide.

However not learning from mistakes is a recipe for making more errors – “those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.”

And that’s exactly what the hapless Myer and David Jones shareholders are condemned to, as are all the other businesses whose management doesn’t see its failures.

Similar posts:

  • No Related Posts

Downward trends and demographics mark the end of consumerism

The age of ever expanding consumer spending is over, we have to start thinking of different ways

One of the features of the late Twentieth Century economy was how consumer spending came to dominate the economy – as manufacturing moved offshore, mines closed down and agriculture became largely automated, many developed nations’ growth came from retail spending.

Today’s release of retail spending figures by the Australian Bureau of statistics shows how that economic model too has come to an end. A post on the Macrobusiness blog illustrates the steady, structural decline of retail spending in Australia.

ScreenHunter_10 Aug. 05 11.36

Since 2000, the rate of growth has been declining, only low interest rate policies over the last two years has kept retail sales at a steady level.

Those businesses whose business models are built on the assumption of high growth rates have a big problem – its no coincidence it’s the department and clothing stores are among the loudest complainers about taxes, labour costs and rents as they see their sales and profits shrinking.

Basically the Twentieth Century era of consumption has come to an end as households have maxed out their credit cards. Now that many of those households are now older, they simply don’t need to spend as much anyway.

With the demographic, economic and cultural changes now happening in society it’s a bad time to be planning on massive expansions in household spending and debt as we say in most western countries from the 1960s onward.

It’s time to think different, and be a lot smarter about getting consumers to buy your products. The era of the 72-month interest free deal is over.

Similar posts:

Staging a sales blitzkreig to win the market battle

Retailer The Iconic is a good example of the Silicon Valley greater fool model

Part of the Silicon Valley greater fool model requires ramping whatever metrics are necessary — page views, unique visitors, revenue or profit to attract prospective buyers to acquire the business.

Elizabeth Knight in the Sydney Morning Herald looks at the cracks appearing in online retailer The Iconic where revenues of thirty million dollars were subsidised by forty-four million in losses in the e-commerce operator’s first year of trading.

The Iconic has all the hallmarks of a classic ‘buy me’ Silicon Valley operation — big marketing spend, high customer acquisition costs and fat operating losses in an effort to build market share.

Getting market share is one of the key aspects of the greater fool model, being the leader in a segment almost guarantees a buyer, usually the one of the shellshocked incumbents.

Knight quotes emails from one of The Iconic’s founders, Oliver Samwar, on the importance of being number one in their sector.

‘‘The only thing is that the time of the Blitzkrieg must be chosen wisely so that each country tells me with blood when it is time. I am ready – anytime!’’ one said.

‘‘We must be number one latest in the last month of next season. Full month, not a discount sales month

‘‘Why? Because only number one can raise unbelievable money at unbelievable valuations. I cannot raise money for number 2 etc and I have seen it how easy (sic) it is for me in Brazil and how difficult in Russia because our team f….d up.’’

As we’ve seen with companies like Groupon, being number one can impress gullible corporations but when that market position has been bought by investor’s money subsidising operations, the business is rarely sustainable.

Whether investors are prepared to continue subsidising The Iconic’s losses or if the business can attract a buyer will depend upon the business maintaining momentum on its key metrics.

Probably the most important thing for companies like The Iconic though is the availability of easy credit and accessible funds.

As we saw in the original dot com boom, when that easy money evaporates so to do most of the businesses.

For the incumbent businesses threatened by well funded upstarts, some might find the best hope for survival is to hope challengers run out of money.

In the meantime though, they may have to survive a market blitzkrieg.

Similar posts: