Decoding the new economy

Rampaging Ransomware

How long until we see ransomware infecting smart devices asks a Romanian security researcher?

A few years ago Ransomware was a joke, malware would install a screen that would demand a ransom be paid to ‘unlock’ the computer. It was easy to get around and almost trivial to remove.

Then came Cryptolocker, a nasty piece of malware that would gleefully encrypt a victim’s hard drives, rendering them inaccessible unless a sizeable ransom was paid.

Ransomware suddenly became serious.

Cryptolocker eventually was unpicked with a cracking tool released and the ring’s alleged founder, Evgeniy Bogachev, now on the run from US authorities with a three million dollar reward for his arrest.

A better class of ransomware

Now the gangs running the ransomware scams are even more sophisticated and well resourced with Andrei Taflan of Romanian security company BitDefender describing how Bitcoin values are often tracking ransomware activity.

“When we see Bitcoin values surging we watch for increased ransomware activity. Someone is buying Bitcoins to unlock their data,” Taflan told me last week in an underground bar appropriately called The Rabbit Hole.

Taflan’s colleague Bogdan Botezatu describes how the ransomware problem is getting worse, not better, with Cryptowall patching the weaknesses that led to Bogachev’s downfall.

One of the fascinating aspects of Cryptowall is that it’s polymorpic – it changes shape to elude traditional signature based anti-virus programs. The malware also creates unique Bitcoin wallets to make tracking transaction harder.

Paying the ransom

Many businesses being infected by Cryptowall and having data locked away by an industrial grade encryption program makes it a no brainer to pay the demands. It’s a profitable business.

Faced this rather impressive piece of work, Botezatu raises a chilling prospect about ransomware in the Internet of Things; how long, he asks, will it take ransomware to target more sensitive devices we use, including cars and medical implants?

Botezatu’s concern illustrate why security with the Internet of Things is absolutely essential if industry and the public are to have any confidence in connected devices.

Locking down the firmware of the internet of things

As the smart devices become common in our homes, cars and workplaces suppliers will have to do more to secure their software.

There’s a fundamental problem with smart devices warns Kim Zetter and Andy Greenberg in Wired magazine.

In Why Firmware Is So Vulnerable to Hacking, and What Can Be Done About It, Zetter and Green look at the problem with the embedded software that is shipped with every computerised device from Personal Computers to smart sensors.

The problem with firmware is that it’s difficult to check it’s not been changed, awkward to upgrade and complex to find, the Wired piece mentions how even the batteries in Apple laptops have vulnerable software embedded into their chips.

As the smart devices become common in our homes, cars and workplaces suppliers will have to do more to secure their software.

Business in a time of falling technology costs

The fall in computer prices shows no business or manager can assume their markets are safe

Personal Computers cost one thousandth of what they did in 1980 reports Aki Ito in Bloomberg Business.

For the computer industry that’s been both a blessing and curse; cheap systems have allowed computers to become pervasive but at the same time the collapsing prices have destroyed the business models of those who built their companies upon the industry economics on 1980 or 2000.

Software has fallen a similar amount with computer programs now costing 7/1000ths of what they did 35 years ago. Again this has dramatically changed the structure of the industry with Google and Amazon taking over from Microsoft and Adobe.

While the computer industry is the starkest example of the collapse in prices due to technological change, it’s not the only sector being affected – almost every industry is under similar pressures as margins get stripped away.

Anywhere where middlemen are exploiting market inefficiencies are opportunities for new technologies to destroy the existing business models, Uber are a good example of this with the taxi industry.

With technological change accelerating in all industries, no business or its managers can assume they are safe from shifting marketplaces or new, unexpected competitors.

Uber and the management dilemma

Is Uber profoundly changing the economy or are even bigger forces at work that will challenge managers?

“Uber-mania reflects a profound turn in the way the global economy is organized,” writes Fortune Magazine’s editor Alan Murray.

That’s a bit of stretch as Uber’s simply an application of the technologies that are changing business and the economy; those technologies are having a more profound effect on the role of managers in the modern workplace.

Along with services like AirBnB and Task Rabbit, are the result of the new breed of cloud, mobile and big data tools that make it easier to deploy new business models which in themselves threaten traditional industries and their executives.

Uber’s success is in finding an industry that in much of the world has been ripe for disruption for decades; in most Western cities cab services have been regulated to protect plate holders’ incomes and often to protect corrupt local cartels.

What Uber’s disruption shows is how those tools can be deployed against cosy incumbents.

Probably the cosiest group of incumbents of all have been corporate managers; over the last thirty years businesses have been downsized, workers have become more productive and many functions have been outsourced or offshored.

Management however has largely remained untouched as the need to supervise business functions has remained.

Now those tools – particularly the smart algorithms that run companies like Google, Facebook and Uber – are coming for managers in many industries. Added to the manager’s dilemma are improved collaboration tools that allow workers and machines to communicate and make decision autonomously without the need for supervision.

Possibly the greatest change in business over the next decade will be the disappearance of the manager as software takes over.

Microsoft’s search for a strategy

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella says the company’s future lies in the cloud and productivity. What’s new?

The decision of Microsoft to offer its Office tablet apps for free last week has had the desired effect with them rocketing to the top of the charts as people enthusiastically grab them.

Microsoft’s decision pretty well locks its resellers into the loss leading strategy the company flagged last week in China, with the tablet apps available for free its hard for retailers and integrators to be charging for the desktop version.

That loss leader strategy has been further laid out by CEO Satya Nadella at a function in London yesterday where he described their cloud and mobile first strategy, something he also discussed at a briefing to ‘a small gathering of journalists’ last week.

Nadella’s vision isn’t really anything new; it differs from Ballmer’s ‘devices and services’ strategy but the thrust of the business was always going to be on cloud services and the company’s Azure services regardless of any conceits around tablets or professional offerings.

Of the three key areas Nadella identifies — Windows, Office 365, and Azure — two of them are problematic; the Office 365 for reasons already mentioned and the Windows product line.

The ‘Windows everywhere’ strategy, which also happens one of Ballmer’s earlier initiatives, is doomed as the operating system is not suitable for smartphones or lightweight internet of things devices.

Even if Windows was successful on smartphones or could be successfully ported to low powered smart devices, the margins are tiny compared to the traditional desktop market that was so profitable for Microsoft in the past.

All of which brings Microsoft back to Azure; it’s clear the cloud service is the future of the company but the margins are dire except for some relatively niche areas like collaboration software.

Mantras about ‘productivity’ count for nothing as every software and cloud computing company cater for the B2B market is delivering a service that claims to improve customers’ productivity. That Office is declining as a profit centre only makes things harder for the company.

If anything, Nadella’s discussions illustrate the company is still casting around for the next big profit centre. As the Windows and Office franchises decline, time may start to run out for the current management just as it eventually did for Ballmer.

Giving away Office apps may lock some users into the 365 service and could prove moderately profitable, but last week’s moves indicates a much smaller future For Microsoft.

When margins collapse

Giving away your once most profitable product is a sure sign your industry is in trouble

Two of the key indicators that your business model, and industry, is being threatened is declining sales and margins.

A good example of this is the story Microsoft are urging their Chinese resellers to use Office 365 as a loss leader to get their foot in the door with customers.

Not so long ago Microsoft Office was a huge cash generator for the business; now it’s a loss leader.

If anything this shows how the margins in the software business are being eroded by cloud computing. Businesses like Microsoft and its resellers that have grown fat on big margins now have to evolve to a very different marketplace.

This means a very different way of doing business, a different way of delivering products and much more streamlined operation that doesn’t need battalions of highly paid salespeople and managers. In fact those managers and salespeople become a very expensive legacy item in a cloud computing world.

Microsoft are by no means the only company to find themselves giving away once profitable products in order to maintain their market position but when that starts happening it’s clear the time has arrived to find a new line of business.

In Microsoft’s case that’s been a pivot to the cloud, however the company will never find things as lucrative as the good old days when software was sold in boxes or licensed out with impossible to read agreements.

Funnily, the same thing is happening in the telcommunications world. It’s an interesting time to be in business.

Tag: software

Rampaging Ransomware

A better class of ransomware

Paying the ransom

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