There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.
– Former US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
For business owners, the “unknown unknown” is always lurking – the risk of being caught by something we couldn’t see coming is one of the reasons investors and business owners accept higher returns than putting their money on deposit with a bank or taking a safe clerical job at the same financial institution.
Being able to respond quickly to the unexpected is an important factor in a business’ survival and that flexibility is what gives the small, lean enterprise the advantage over big corporations that can’t move rapidly in the face of change.
One of those “unknown unknowns” are changes to the market, the story Groupon is a great example where the owners of an older failing business decided the “group buying” model was a market worth trying.
This is what we should understand when writing a business plan, that there are “known knowns” such as rent, “known unknowns” such as customer demand and “unknown unknowns” such as market changes, recessions and natural disasters.
“Known unknowns” are always an interesting group as we tend to assume when doing the sums on a new business idea that there is a level of demand and all costs are immediately identified. Often, once we’ve set the business up we find that we’ve miscalculated our costs and sales, sometimes happily and often not.
This is why it’s not worth spending too much time diving into detail on a business plan as all of us almost certainly will get the numbers wrong due to the “unknowns” in the equation.
Those “unkowns” often bite us in other ways as well in that what we think we know turns out to be an “unknown”, often we overestimate our own abilities which turns what should be a manageable “known unknown” into a high risk “unknown unknown”.
When choosing a business partner, it’s worthwhile noting what they know about themselves – if your future business partner doesn’t know they are knucklehead at marketing or accounting while being a star salesman or programmer, then all your trying to convince them that you should hire in a marketer or accountant and let them focus on their strengths will fall on deaf ears and your partnership is probably doomed unless your strength is being a diplomat.
Having an idea of what is unknown is a great strength in business, it allows you to properly evaluate risk and be flexible in face of the unexpected. Of course, knowing the “unknown unknowns” such as sports results and share movements is the whole reason match fixing and insider trading is so lucrative.
Risk, and the reward for taking it, is the basis on which a capitalist economy is built. We shouldn’t be afraid of the unknown but acknowledge the unknowns are out there, identify those unknowns we can see and have the skills, flexibility and financial reserve to deal with those we can’t.
Dealing with the unknowns is what really marks the successful business.