Category: Investment

  • Farewell to the knowledge economy

    Farewell to the knowledge economy

    One of the mantras of the 1980s was the future of western nations lay in becoming ‘knowledge economies’, unfortunately things don’t look like they are turning out that way.

    As the developed economies moved their manufacturing offshore – first to Japan and Korea, then Mexico and finally China – the promise to displaced Western factory workers was the replacement jobs would be in vaguely knowledge based industries like call centres and backoffice computer work.

    From the 1990s on, those jobs also started to go overseas  to lower cost centres in India, the Phillipines and other countries.

    When the internet became ubiquitous in the developed world in the late 1990s, the creative industries – musicians, artists and writers – found income dried up as their work became commoditised by digital distribution channels.

    Now the professions are being affected by combination of offshoring, artificial intelligence and automated processes. Many of the jobs that were done by highly paid accountants and lawyers can now be done by computers or in places not dissimilar to those that took away the call centre jobs twenty years ago.

    So it turns out the knowledge economy isn’t the key to riches after all and the future turns out to be more complex than what we thought in the 1990s.

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  • Death of a typewriter repairer

    Death of a typewriter repairer

    Despite owing his longevity to cheap scotch and strong tobacco, the US’ oldest typewriter repairman passed away two weeks ago. The fate of his shop is one that many other small businesses will share.

    Manson Whitlock of New Haven, Connecticut had run his typewriter shop from the early 1930s until shortly before his death. Needless to say, he didn’t like computers.

    “I don’t even know what a computer is,” Mr. Whitlock told The Yale Daily News, the student paper, in 2010. “I’ve heard about them a lot, but I don’t own one, and I don’t want one to own me.”

    While Manson’s shop had six staff at its peak, in recent years he ran the operation on his own and the business died with him.

    Many Baby Boomer business owners face the same fate as Manson Whitlock as their businesses decline in the face of changing technology and shifting change.

    Some of the boomers will suffer because they are undercapitalised and, as the next generation of entrepreneurs can’t afford to buy these existing business, most of those will work way wall past the date they planned to retireme.

    A good example of this is a radio shop near my office which has been run by an old gentleman for many years. When I went into it in 1997 for something – I forget what – the proprietor was almost shocked to see a customer and he couldn’t help me.

    It wasn’t surprising as it was rare to see a customer and the none of the stock behind the cluttered counter seemed to date beyond 1980.

    The only reason the shop survived was because the proprietor owned the premises as there’s no way the place could have paid the modern rents with the non-existent turnover.

    A few weeks ago the shop closed. I don’t know whether the owner retired or passed away, but the business closed with him.

    Both the Neutral Bay electrical shop and the New Haven typewriter repairer show how businesses can be left behind by technology.

    While both stores had plenty of time to react during the rise of computers during the 1980s and 90s, their proprietors chose not to and by the 2000s it was too late.

    Today, technology and business is changing even faster and there’s many more big and small enterprises that risk being left behind by change.

    It’s not only the changing market place that risks the future of these business, the failure to invest in things as simple as modern Point of Sale systems or even a basic website will leave many exposed.

    The time to invest in new systems and products is now and if you can’t invest in the future, then it’s time to get out.

    neutral-bay-radio-shop

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  • Today marks a moment of reinvention

    Today marks a moment of reinvention

    In announcing the company will acquire Nokia’s mobile and devices business, Microsoft said “Today marks a moment of reinvention”.

    This is certainly true, with the retirement of Steve Ballmer, Microsoft officially enters the post Bill Gates era and today’s announcement is an admission from Nokia that their moment as the world’s dominant mobile phone manufacturer is over.

    What’s notable about the deal is what Microsoft doesn’t get — particularly Nokia’s maps service. While Microsoft gets a license to use Nokia’s mapping services, it leaves the Finnish company with a valuable asset and possibly leaves it as the only company capable of competing with Google in that market.

    For Microsoft, acquiring the expertise of Nokia’s engineers shouldn’t be understated, although integrating 32,000 Nokia employees will test Microsoft’s management as this increases their workforce by a third.

    Possibly the most fascinating part of Microsoft’s announcement though is the comment in the second paragraph of their media release.

    Microsoft will draw upon its overseas cash resources to fund the transaction.

    US technology companies have been struggling to deal with the massive profits they have accumulated offshore as part of their tax minimalisation strategy. What we may now be seeing is a wave of foreign takeovers as American companies start to reduce their offshore cash stashes without incurring domestic tax bills.

    If that’s true, Microsoft’s agreement with Nokia may well indicate we’re about to see many more takeovers around the world .

    Regardless of what it means for the wider industry, both Microsoft and Nokia have entered fundamentally different phases of their businesses.

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  • Why do executives see romance in the startup culture?

    Why do executives see romance in the startup culture?

    One of the fascinating phenomenons of the modern era is how corporate managers have appropriated the startup culture.

    At the announcement of the Australian Centre for Broadband Innovation’s Apps For Broadband prizes, Foxtel’s CIO Robyn Elliot described her experience of working in a startup.

    “Foxtel was once in the category of startup itself,” said Elliot at the start of her speech.

    Apples and Oranges

    Comparing Foxtel to a scrabbling startup in the modern sense is bizarre given the company was a well funded joint venture between News Limited and Telstra – the company being a good example of modern Australian crony corporatism rather than a risky undertaking by daring entrepreneurs.

    This conceit about startups isn’t unusual among corporate executives, in the early days of Australia’s National Broadband Network it was quite common to hear NBNCo managers talk about their startup ethos – this from a company backed by around 30 billion dollars of government funding.

    At one stage I interviewed for a job at NBNCo and I struggled not to start giggling when the “startup ethos of the organisation” was earnestly emphasised to me several times during the meeting.

    Not surprisingly the job went to an ex-telco staffer, as did most of the team’s roles. No doubt their corporate experience was far more suited to the company’s ‘startup ethos’  than that of actually having worked in four startups. Giggling in the interview probably didn’t help either.

    The romantic dreams of executives

    Given most corporate staffers would curl into the fetal position and weep after two weeks of working in a real startup, why do executives indulge in the conceit that their business is ‘just like a startup’?

    The answer could lie in “The Consequences to the Banks of the Collapse in Money Values” written by John Maynard Keynes in 1931.

    A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him. It is necessarily part of the business of a banker to maintain appearances, and to confess a conventional respectability, which is more than human. Life-long practices of this kind make them the most romantic and the least realistic of men.

    So it is for the modern corporate executive who has spent their working lives fighting for the corner office having met their KPIs and spending years cultivating their network of like minded managers.

    After two decades spent writing stern memos on the use of paper clips and climbing the corporate ladder, it must be tempting for a middle aged executive to look at those funky youngsters getting billion dollar payouts after a couple of years grabbing three hours sleep a night among the pizza boxes under the desk and get pangs of what might have been…..

    A harmless startup fantasy

    In some many ways the executive startup fantasy is touching and largely harmless, even if it does attract sniggers and giggles from the unwashed and underpaid who’ve actually been there.

    The real risk is when a senior executive tries to shoehorn a Silicon Valley startup culture into an organisation.

    While most large companies could do with some of the hunger and flexibility found in smaller businesses, there’s many ways that could go terribly wrong – particularly when driven by a starry eyed romantic manager.

    For most executives though, the dreams of being in a startup will remain a fantasy – and that’s probably best for everybody.

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  • A startup’s journey – what businesses can and can’t learn from Silicon Valley

    A startup’s journey – what businesses can and can’t learn from Silicon Valley

    Tech Crunch has a fascinating story on the journey of failed startup, Los Angeles based Flowtab that hoped to create an bar tab smartphone app.

    In many ways Flowtab is a story of our bubble economy times – a cheap, easily built service that addresses what is, at best, a minor first world problem.

    Flowtab failed when it turned out solving that problem was a lot harder than just writing an app, which is something often overlooked in the current startup hype.

    However had the timing of Flowtab’s founders been a bit luckier they could have hit the jackpot.

    Dave Winer describes the herd mentality of venture capital investors and had the hot trend of the time been bar ordering apps then the Flowtab team could have been one of the beneficiaries of the Silicon Valley business model.

    Along with being a historical insight into today’s investment mania, Flowtab’s story is an illustration of how a new business needs to pivot when the original idea turns out not to be as compelling as the founders first thought.

    Even when a business does a pivot, it’s not guaranteed the company will survive, but that’s part of the risks in starting a new enterprise, particularly when it’s undercapitalised as Flowtab was.

    There’s many lessons from Flowtab’s failure, but not all of them apply to every business.

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