Knowledge and power

Can we use the data revolution effectively and well?

In the 16th Century English courtier Sir Francis Bacon declared “Knowledge is Power”, something certainly true during the conspiracy prone reign of Elizabeth I.

Today the data available about ourselves and our communities is exploding along with the computer power to process that information to turn it into knowledge.

We see that knowledge being used in interesting ways – US shopping chain Target recently described how they used data mining to determine, with 87% accuracy, to figure out if a shopper is pregnant.

That 87% is important, it says the algorithm isn’t perfect and bombarding a false positive with baby wear advertising could prove embarrassing, or in some families and societies even fatal.

A good example of data misuse are the two unfortunate Brummies (alright, one’s from Coventry) who were deported from the US for tweeting they were “going to destroy America and dig up Marilyn Monroe

For the US immigration and homeland security agents, they ready the jokey tweets by the Birmingham bar manager through their own filter and came to the wrong conclusion, although it’s likely their performance indicators rewarded them for doing this.
This is the Achilles heel in big data – used selectively, information can be used to confirm our own prejudices, ideologies and biases.
In 2003 we saw this in the run up to the US invasion of Iraq with cherry picking of information used to build the false case that the ruling regime had weapons of mass destruction that could attack Europe in 45 minutes.
For businesses, we can be sure data showing the CEO is wrong or the big advisory firm has made the wrong recommendations will be overlooked in most cases.

Despite the Pollyanna view of a world of transparency and openness driven by social media and online publishing tools, the information is asymmetric; governments and big business know more about individuals or those without power than the other way round.

In a world where politicians, business people and journalists trade on their insider knowledge rather than competing in the open, free market we have to understand that filtering this data is essential to retaining  powers and privileges.

Usually when the data threatens the existing power structures it is repressed in the same way a dissenting taxpayer, citizen, employee or shareholder is discredited and isolated.

At present there’s lots of data threatening existing commercial duopolies, political parties and cosy ways of doing business.

The fact many of those in power don’t want to see what their own systems are telling them is where the real opportunities lie.

Entrepreneurs, community groups and activists have access to much of this data being ignored by incumbents, it will be interesting to see how it’s used.

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The world of smaller margins

Many of us are going to have become used to a less profitable market.

“We never get expensive trips anymore,” lamented the IT journalist, “every year we used to get a trip to Las Vegas, London or Singapore.”

The decline of journalist freebies is one symptom of the world of declining margins. In the case of the IT industry, most vendors have seen their profits shaved and the days of flying the press around the world to product launches and parties is an unaffordable luxury.

A recent Time story, When Whenzhou Sneezes, illustrates the problem on a broader scale.

In Wenzhou, a provincial Chinese city, factory owners found their margins were being squeezed and they could make better money in property speculation, which of course rarely ends well.

For the IT industry, we saw the rise of “crapware”, where computer manufacturers started added trial programs that slowed their systems and detracted from the customer’s experience.

That’s madness but Micheal Dell, the founder of Dell Computer, pointed out adding this rubbish allows them to sell computers $50 cheaper.

Assuming margins will always be fat, and then fighting market trends when those profits start to erode, are two serious management mistakes that are being repeated across industries and by entire nations.

Right now the world is changing and there are few sectors that have been profitable for the last twenty years that won’t be affected in the post-consumer society.

It might be worthwhile considering where your margins are and how they are changing, then resisting the temptation to do silly things. Although cutting back on journo junkets might not be a bad idea.

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