Tag: smartphones

Three screens, one screen

Is Blackberry, Apple or Microsoft right about the way we’ll use computers in the future?

One of the points that came out of Blackberry’s Z10 launch last week was CEO Thorsten Heins’ talking about the company’s ‘one screen’ strategy.

Blackberry sees the smartphone as being the centre of people’s computer usage with them replacing personal computers and tablets as the main computing tool.

This is at odds with the rest of the phone and computer industries who are struggling with managing the three or four devices that most people use.

Apple overcame this by having different operating systems – OS X and iOS – and even then the mobile iOS is subtly forked for the different ways people use tablets versus  smartphones.

With Windows 8, Microsoft chose to go the opposite way with an operating system which works on all devices. Sadly it doesn’t seem to have worked.

Blackberry’s strategy is to assume smartphones will be their main communications device. It’s a big bet which doesn’t align with what seems to be experience of most people.

Over the last few years Blackberry’s smartphone market share has collapsed from 40% to 4%, so it’s the time for brave bets although its hard to see that customers will use smartphones instead of PCs or tablets is the right call.

It’s an interesting question though – can you see your smartphone being your main computer?

The Five Stages of abandoning a product

Microsoft show us how to kill a product with the slow abandonment of Windows 8

Killing a technology product is never a clean process, as Google well know. Microsoft show the way to deal with a failed project and we’re seeing their five stages of abandoning a product as they prepare to retire Windows 8.

The stages of Microsoft are abandoning a product are well known – the failure of Microsoft Vista is the best example, but not the only one.

As Microsoft smooths Window 8’s pillow and prepares for its imminent demise we can see the process at work.

Denial

At first the company denies there is a problem, the flashy advertising campaigns are boosted and the various ‘in the camp’ commentators get informal briefings from company evangelists to fuel their snarky columns about people getting Microsoft’s latest product all wrong.

This usually goes on for around six months until the market feedback that the product is dog becomes overwhelming – usually this happens at the same time the first reliable sales figures start appearing.

Anger

As the consensus in the broader community becomes settled that the new product isn’t good, the company’s tame commentators turn nasty and lash out at the critics for ‘misrepresenting’ the new product.

This is usually a touchy period for Microsoft and other vendors as they can’t risk being too aggressive but they have to allow their allies to both let off steam and try to recover the credibility they lost in hyping what’s clearly been a market failure.

Bargaining

Once it’s clear the perceived wisdom that the product isn’t very good isn’t going to be shaken, the vendor comes out with special offers and pricing changes to try and coax users over to the new service.

With Windows 8 Microsoft tried something unusual, rather than cutting prices, Microsoft announced they would increase the cost of Windows 8.

The idea was probably to panic people into buying the product and giving Microsoft a revenue and market share bounce for the quarter.

It didn’t work – the consensus that Windows 7 is a better product meant people stayed away.

Depression

As the realisation that pricing tweaks and promotional stunts won’t work sends the company, and its supporters, into a funk.

For experienced industry watchers, the silence around a product that’s been heavily hyped and defended for the previous year or two is a good indication that the next version is being accelerated.

Acceptance

Eventually the vendor accepts the product has failed and starts working on its own exit strategy – hopefully one that doesn’t see too many executives sacked.

With Microsoft’s this process starts with a quiet announcement that the replacement version of Windows is on the way, in this case Windows Blue.

At the same time, the tame commentators start talking about ‘leaks’ of the wonderful new system that is in the pipeline. Early beta versions of the new product start popping up in developers’ forums and file sharing sites.

Eventually you get stories like this one that appeared in The Verge yesterday – Windows Blue leaks online and we can be sure the Microsoft public relations machine has subtly moved onto the next version.

Vale Windows 8

So Windows 8 is coming to an early end. In one way this is a shame as it was a brave gamble by Steve Ballmer and his team to solve the ‘three screen’ problem.

Computer users today are using three or more screens or devices – a desktop, a smartphone and a TV or tablet computer.

Microsoft were hoping they could develop a system that unified all these platforms and gave users a common experience regardless of what they were using.

It appears to have failed, probably because the different devices don’t have the same user experience so a keyboard based system doesn’t work on a touchscreen while a touch based system sucks really badly on a desktop or laptop computer – which is Windows 8’s real problem.

Unrealistic expectations

Another problem for Microsoft were the unrealistic expectations that Window 8 would halt the slide of personal computer sales.

PC manufacturers have been baffled by the rise of smartphones and tablet computers – vendors like Dell, HP and Acer have miserably in moving into the new product lines and they hoped that Microsoft could help arrest their market declines.

This was asking too much of Windows 8 and was never really likely.

So the cycle begins again with Windows Blue, the question is whether it will be the last version of Windows as we move further in the post-PC era.

ABC Nightlife February 2013

For February’s ABC Nightlife segment Tony Delroy and I are looking at software prices, the new breed of smartphones for seniors and the future of the telco industry

Paul Wallbank joins Tony Delroy on ABC Nightife across Australia to discuss how technology affects your business and life. For February 2013 we’ll be looking at the software rip-off, smartphones for seniors and Telstra’s roadmap for the mobile economy.

The show will be available on all ABC Local stations and streamed online through the Nightlife website.

Some of the topics we’ll discuss include the following;

We’d love to hear your views so join the conversation with your on-air questions, ideas or comments; phone in on the night on 1300 800 222 within Australia or +61 2 8333 1000 from outside Australia.

Tune in on your local ABC radio station or listen online at www.abc.net.au/nightlife.

You can SMS Nightlife’s talkback on 19922702, or through twitter to @paulwallbank using the #abcnightlife hashtag or visit the Nightlife Facebook page.

Seniors and smartphones

A phone for seniors shows how the smartphone market is evolving to meet people’s needs.

One of the opportunities with Android based smartphones is the ability for companies to offer modified phones aimed at certain industries and markets.

Ahead of next week’s Mobile World Congress, Fujitsu has announced a phone designed for seniors with larger icons and a less sensitive touchscreen.

The senior market is one that’s been ripe for savvy manufacturers as older people move onto smartphones and demand devices that meet their needs.

Over the years there had been attempts at mobile phones designed for seniors but most of them had been pretty lame and none had sold well.

The difference with smartphones is that most of the design changes are involved in the software and with open source platforms like Android and Ubuntu it makes it easier for companies to build easy to use devices.

Now it’s fairly easy to make these devices, we can expect to see more of them and as smartphones are becoming cheaper – a quick look at the Alibaba website shows wholesale prices for Android based phones as low as $10 (although you have to buy a container load of the things.)

There’s some opportunities for some smart entrepreneurs with these devices and we’ll see some interesting smartphones aimed at certain groups.

What happens when software is wrong

A phone company software glitch puts one man’s life and the safety of thousands at risk. It reminds us that computers are not always correct.

The Las Vegas Review Journal yesterday told the story of Wayne Dobson, a retiree living to the north of the city whose home is being fingered as harbouring lost cellphones thanks to a software bug at US telco Sprint which is giving out the wrong location of customer’s mobile devices.

While it appears funny at first the situation is quite serious for Mr Dobson as angry phone owners are showing up at his home to claim their lost mobiles back.

Making the situation even more serious is that 911 calls are being flagged at coming from his home and already he has had to deal with one police raid.

While the local cops have flagged this problem, it’s likely other agencies won’t know about this bug which exposes the home owner to some serious nastiness.

That a simple software bug can cause such risk to an innocent man illustrates why we need to be careful with what technology tells us – the computer is not always right.

Another aspect is our rush to judgement,  we assume because a smartphone app indicates a lost mobile is in a house that everyone inside is a thief. That the app could be wrong, or we don’t understand the data to properly interpret it, doesn’t enter our minds. This is more a function of our tabloid way of thinking rather than any flaws in technology.

The whole Find My Phone phenomenon is an interesting experiment in our lack of understanding risk; not only is there a possibility of going to the wrong place but there’s also a strong chance that an angry middle class boy is going to find himself quickly out of his depth when confronted by a genuine armed thief.

For Wayne Dobson, we should pray that Sprint fixes this problem before he encounters a stupid, violent person. For the rest of us we should remember that the computer is not always right.

Samsung’s place in the market

How will Samsung respond to the challenges from Apple and Google?

Samsung’s announcement of a 7 billion dollar quarterly profit yesterday tops off a big 2012 for the Korean electronic manufacturer in which they became the world’s biggest mobile phone manufacturer after overtaking Nokia’s sales.

Android phones have been the great success for Samsung as other providers, including Google, have been comparatively slow to offer devices which give telcos the opportunity to claw back some margins they’ve been giving away to Apple over the last few year.

Despite these successes Samsung have a number of challenges ahead in 2013.

The biggest challenge is channel conflict with Google and Motorola working on launching an X-Phone which they hope will compete against both the iPhone and Samsung products

Channel conflict was always going to be a problem for handset manufacturers using the Android operating system when Google bought Motorola Mobility and now we’re seeing the effects of this.

The Koreans aren’t taking Google’s threat lying down having joined with Japanese manufacturers in a joint venture to develop a Linux based operating system for smartphones and Samsung expects to release Tizen equipped phones later in 2013.

Just on its own, the conflict with Google would be a problem for Samsung but the ongoing fights with Apple over tablet and smartphone patents continues to be a management distraction as well.

Apple’s relationship with the Korean conglomerate is a classic case of co-dependency as Samsung supply the bulk of the processors used in the iPad and iPhone. While Apple may want to kill the Samsung Galaxy tablet range, they have to be careful about going too far with a key supplier.

On the Asymco blog wonders if Apple’s announcement to bring some manufacturing back to the US may be part of a strategy to deal with the company’s dependence upon Samsung.

With threats from ‘frenemies’ like Apple and Google one of best defenses Samsung has is the companies varied range of products along with its willingness to strike out on its own into customers’ markets.

At the Computer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Samsung showed off its range of OLED TVs, laptops and other equipment alongside smartphones. That breadth of product frees the company from being locked into one or two markets.

Of course the best example of such an electronics conglomerate in the past was Japan’s Sony which is now truly lost and wandering in the business wilderness.

Whether Samsung can avoid Sony’s mistakes will be worth watching over the next few years, for Apple and Google it may determine who is the biggest competitor in the 2020s.

Pennies for Apps – how Apple and Google dominate online income

Apple and Google dominate our online revenues while the creators of content fight over pennies. Is this a passing phase?

“App Store tops 40 billion downloads” trumpets Apple in a media release curiously timed to coincide with the opening of the Consumer Electronics Show.

While impressive, those figures aren’t great for developers. As writer Ed Bott points out they are getting 17.5 cents per download.

Making things worse, that return is trending downwards. Tech site Giga Om put the return at 20 cents a year earlier.

Giga Om also points out App Store returns are skewed towards the big successful game apps, meaning the majority of app developers are scratching for pennies.

This phenomenon is also happening with online advertising as Google Adsense partners find their income dwindling for pay for click adverts.

On top of declining revenues, there’s the cut that Google and Apple take. In the App Store, Apple’s take is 30% while Google pocket over 50% of Adsense revenue.

Working for pennies has become the norm for for creators like musicians, writers and app developers in the digital economy. The long tail is fine, but it barely pays the bills for all but a few outliers. Everyone else needs a day job.

In some respects this isn’t new – writers, poets, musicians and painters have generally starved in their garrets throughout history – but the Twentieth Century model of intellectual property, record labels and broadcast empires offered at least a decent living to many.

Right now the 21st Century model seems to be that creators can go back to starving, while the big four online conglomerates make the profits previously shared around by the movie studios, record labels and book publishers.

Maybe though the rivers of gold which are making Apple and Google’s managers rich may turn out to be just as vulnerable as those of the newspapers they’ve displaced.

It may well be that the current dominance of the App Store and Adsense are a transition effect as we move to other business models. It’s difficult to see right now, but we can’t rule it out.

On being evil

Microsoft learn what its like to be the weakest kid on the block while Google consider a future of being evil.

“Don’t be evil” are the opening words of Google’s corporate code.

When it was framed in the late 1990s there was one company in particular everyone in the tech industry thought of when the word ‘evil’ was being used.

At the time Microsoft defined evil in the technology industry. The main reason was their crushing of real or potential competitors like Netscape, Java or the troubled IBM joint venture of OS/2.

Topping everything though was Microsoft’s tactic of fake error messages designed to scare customers away from the competing DR-DOS system in the early 1990s.

So it’s rather delicious that Microsoft seems to be getting a taste of its own medicine twenty years later as Google Maps returns an error message on Windows Phones.

This is particularly galling for Microsoft as Windows Phone is essential for the company’s resurgence and, as Apple have learned, maps are a critical feature for smart phone users.

It’s too early to accuse Google of having become evil as Microsoft did during their period of dominance as Tim Wu discusses in Why Does Everyone Think Google Beat The FTC but the search giant is flexing its muscles on many fronts.

For Microsoft, they are learning what life’s like when you’re not the toughest, meanest kid on the block.

Karma can be a real bitch.

2UE Weekend Computers, 5 January 2013

Paul Wallbank stands in for Trevor Long to talk technology, computers and the internet on Radio 2UE Weekends from 3pm this Saturday

This Saturday from 3.10 pm I’ll be discussing tech with John Cadogan on Radio 2UE as the stand in for regular guest Trevor Long who’s in the US for the Consumer Electronics Show.

We’ll be taking calls on the Open Line, 13 13 32 or tweet to @paulwallbank while we’re on air. 2UE can be heard online or on 954 AM in the Sydney region.

Some of the things we’ll be covering include the following which we’ll be covering after John speaks to Trevor Long in Las Vegas.

R18 + video games

An adult’s only rating category for computer games has come into effect across Australia. The new R18+ will make it illegal for people under 18 to hire, buy or view any games given the rating, while it will be illegal for retailers to sell R18+ games without the new markings.

The new laws bring computer games into line with the classification system for films and other material and make Australia more consistent with international standards.

Google is working on an X phone

Google is working with Motorola on a handset code-named ‘X Phone’ that’s aimed at grabbing market share from Apple and Samsung.

Google acquired Motorola in May 2012 for $US 12.5 billion to bolster its portfolio as its Android operating system competes with Apple and Samsung.

It’s believed that the handset will feature an imaging and gesture-recognition software developer. The new handset is due out next year.

The first civil lawsuit against Instagram

A Californian Instagram user has levelled breach of contract and other claims against the company.

The lawsuit, filed by Finkelstein and Krinsk, says that customers who do not agree with Instagrams terms can cancel their profile, but they then forfeit their rights to photos they had previously shared on the service.

Instagram, which allows people to add filters and effects to photos and share them easily on the Internet, was acquired by Facebook earlier this year for $US 715 million.

It announced its revised terms of service last week and also announced its mandatory arbitration clause that forces users to waive their rights to participate in a class action lawsuit except under very limited circumstances.

Easing of restriction on Internet use on flights

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has approved an application process for airlines to obtain broadband Internet licenses aboard their planes. Previously airlines have been granted permission on an ad-hoc basis.

Airlines need the FCC’s permission to tap into satellite airwaves while in flight so that passengers can connect to the Internet.

They also need permission from the Federal Aviation Administration, which oversees the safety of inflight Internet systems.

The death of Netbooks

Netbooks have been overtaken by tablet computers and vendors are seeking to push more expensive items to their customers.

The Internet’s TCP/IP language celebrates its 30th birthday

Known as ‘flag day’ January 1, 1983 was the first time that the Us Department of Defence-commissioned ‘Arpanet network’ fully switched to use the Internet protocol suite communications system.

It began as a military project in the U.S in the late 1960’s and it paved the way for the arrival of the World Wide Web.

Summer sales of mobile phones are creating e-waste stockpiles

Over a third of Australians have bought or will consider buying a new mobile phone over Christmas and the summer sales.

This is contributing to the 22 million old mobile phones in Australia.

If these 22 million phones were recycled, they would divert nearly 120 tonnes of plastic from landfill.

Four out of 10 Australians have two or more old mobile phones lying around the home father dust.

Mobile Muster is the official recycling scheme of mobile phones.

You can drop your mobile phone off at a Mobile Muster Collection Point or pick up a reply-paid environment at any Australia Post store and post it in.

Your views, comments or questions are welcome so don’t be shy about calling in on 13 13 32 and Trevor Long will be back next week.

NFC and the car key revolution

Near Field Communications (NFC) systems are more than just ways to pay bills with your smartphone, they promise to upset many industries.

Many businesses have made easy money by ‘clipping the ticket’ of the customer, new technologies like Near Field Communications and cloud computing threaten the easy profits of many organisations.

During yesterday’s 2UE Tech Talk Radio spot where Seamus Byrne and I stood in for Trevor Long, host John Cadogan raised the prospect of replacing car keys and even dashboards with smartphones equipped with Near Field Communications (NFC) systems.

Since NFC technologies appeared we’ve concentrated on the banking and payments aspects of these features but there’s far more to this technology than just smartphones replacing credit cards.

With the right software an NFC equipped smartphone, tablet computer, or even a wristwatch could replace any electronic controller – this is already happening with Wi-Fi or Bluetooth enabled home sound systems, TV remote controllers and games consoles.

An important effect of this is that it cuts out expensive custom replacements like bespoke control units or electronic car keys.

Car keys are a good example of how what was previously a high cost profitable item becomes commodified and those business that had a nice revenue stream find new technology cuts them out.

As keys become replaced with NFC enabled devices then then the scam of with new sets of keys costing up to a thousand dollars with fat profits for everybody involved becomes redundant.

This is something we’re seeing across industries as incumbent businesses find their profitable activities disrupted by smart players using new technology.

Just as manufacturing and publishing have been dealing with these disruptions for the past two decades, it’s coming to all industries and it’s going to take smart operators to deal with the changes.

2UE Weekend Computers, 29 December 2012

Paul Wallbank and Seamus Byrne stand in for Trevor Long to talk technology, computers and the internet on Radio 2UE Weekends.

This Saturday from 3.10 pm Seamus Byrne and myself will be standing in for regular guest Trevor Long to discuss tech with John Cadogan on Radio 2UE.

We’ll be taking calls on the Open Line, 13 13 32 or tweet to @paulwallbank while we’re on air.

Some of the things we’ll be covering include the following.

What type of smart phone?

We have the iPhone, Android and Windows phones. Which ones are better?

  • The iPhone’s been dominating for the last few years, but now  Android is overtaking it. Why’s that?
  • Microsoft are pretty late with a mobile phone, can they catch up?
  • What’s happened to the other makes like Nokia, Blackberry and Motorola?
  • So what if you don’t want a smartphone, what if you just want something to make phone calls?

Checking your phone and Internet plans

There’s was story this week about how people are spending too much on their mobile phone and Internet plans. What should people be looking at and how often should they check their plans?

Paying for stuff with your mobile

You can use your phone as a boarding pass on some airlines, now Telstra and Vodafone are looking at ways to use your mobile to pay for groceries with your mobile phone.

  • How does the system work?
  • Who takes the money?
  • Is this safe?
  • How far is this away?

Your views, comments or questions are welcome so don’t be shy about calling in.

Open Table and free mobile restaurant sites

Mobile websites are becoming essential to the hospitality industry.

One of the big challenges facing restaurants is how customers are moving to the mobile web, diners are using their smartphones to find establishments and expect to make bookings directly.

To help their customers deal with this move to smartphones, restaurant booking service Open Table is offering a free mobile website for their clients so establishments can have sites that are usable on smaller screens.

Whether this is worthwhile depends upon whether the restaurant is already using Open Table, the monthly fees are quite high at $200 per month plus a relatively low $1 commission per cover so it certainly isn’t worth subscribing to their service just to get a mobile optimised website.

For restaurants already using their service it’s best to check if your existing website already has a mobile feature as having two online addresses is only going to confuse customers.

Businesses using WordPress based sites just need to install a plug like WordPress Touch which detects when a smaller screen is viewing your site to change.

Open Table itself is somewhat of an internet old timer having been founded in 1998, making it one of the Tech Wreck survivors, and listed on the NASDAQ market eleven years later.

That a company like Open Table is recognising a mobile web presence is essential for hospitality businesses should be a further warning to restaurants, cafes and hotels that they need to take smartphones seriously.

Just as thirty years ago it was essential to have a Yellow Pages listing, today you’re missing out on customers if they can’t find you on their phones.

Regardless of whether you’re using Open Table or any other service, you need to have some form of mobile site working for you.