Uber’s Travis Kalanick on the highly valued business of disruption

Uber’s Travis Kalanick speaks on his company’s $17 billion valuation

For a four year old business, hire car service Uber is certainly causing a lot of trouble.

Bloomberg Businessweek’s Brad Stone has an interview with the company’s founder and CEO Travis Kalanick on his plans after announcing a 1.2 billion dollar fundraising that values the venture at $17 billion.

Seventeen billion dollars is a hefty valuation for the business and many believe it marks the peak of the current tech bubble, although many of us though Facebook’s billion dollar purchase of Instagram two years ago was that marker.

Kalanick’s views are interesting in his take on that valuation – as he points out the San Francisco taxi market alone turns over $22 billion each year, so Uber’s valuation isn’t beyond the bounds of possibility.

Uber and Logistics

Also notable is Kalanick’s view on the logistics market, something that this blog has maintained is the real business of Uber. In that field, Fedex’s stock market value is $44 billion although Kalanick is discounting the company’s potential in that field.

Right now Uber is on a high, and regardless of any set backs they may get with their ride sharing services, it’s hard to see how the company isn’t going to grab a healthy slice of the global taxi industry and possibly disrupt the logistics industry as well.

Even should Uber end up being the poster child for today’s tech sector irrational exuberance, the company is a stunning example of how businesses we once thought were immune from global disruption are now being shaken up.

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Leading the disruptive wave

Uber’s fight with taxi regulators is part of a broader business disruption

I’ve a story up on Technology Spectator that pulls together Uber’s fight with taxi regulators around the world with the Australian government’s Commission of Audit.

While the story is written in an Australian context, the key message about business disruption is universal; as barriers to entry fall, no incumbent can assume they are immune from having their business upended.

For Australia, this is a particularly important message as the affluent economy is kept afloat by consumer spending underpinned by a favoured and protected housing market.

The economy though is nowhere near as untouchable as it looks; along with being way over invested in property, Australia’s industries are hopeless uncompetitive and have a cost base similar to Germany’s.

It’s an entire country ripe for disruption, it will be interesting to see if the Lucky Country’s luck holds in the 21st Century.

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Uber and the evolving business model

Where does the future lie for car hire service Uber?

Last year we looked at Uber and speculated the software that runs the business positions the company to be more than just a hire car booking service with applications in logistics and other sectors.

This week Uber’s CEO Travis Kalanick is getting plenty of coverage in the media with extensive profiles in both the Wall Street Journal and Wired.

Wired’s profile of Kalanick and Google raises Uber’s potential in logistics, funded by a $258 million fund raising led by Google Ventures last August.

“We feel like we’re still realizing what the potential is,” he says. “We don’t know yet where that stops.”

While Wired speculates about how Uber would perform against Amazon and Walmart, the car service is different in being more of a big data play than its established, possible competitors.

The three businesses would be very different creatures in the way they would address consumer markets, it may even be that Uber is more suited to being a B2B or wholesale operation rather than a retailer like Walmart.

Interestingly Kalanick looks at a target of 2,000 staff by the end of this year reports in his Wall Street Journal interview.

Mr. Kalanick: We have 550 employees. That’s approximate. We’re definitely going to be well over 1,000, maybe in the 1,500 to 2,000 range [by the end of 2014].

Having a staff target so high is interesting, it certainly indicates Kalanick sees plenty of growth ahead in the business.

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Big data, mobile apps and smarter logistics – why Avis is buying Zipcar

Smartphone apps are more than just a funky way of getting information. The combination of big data, social media and mobile insights offer businesses deep market intelligence.

With no bad press over New Year’s Eve it looks like hire car service Uber avoided the surge pricing traps of 2011 and the good news continues for the online booking industry with the news that Avis is buying car sharing service Zipcar.

Assuming the acquisition isn’t another example of the greater fool investment model, Avis’ purchase of Zipcar makes good sense in expanding the hire car giant’s footprint into the share car business.

Regrettably Avis use the 1980s term “synergies” four times in their media release but it does seem the businesses are a good fit both in fleet sharing and improving both company’s services.

Zipcar’s technology is another asset which Avis can use,  with the car sharing service’s ability to track vehicle locations meaning better fleet management for the hire car business.

Car sharing logistics

The logistics angle of car share services is something that’s been highlighted by Uber’s CEO Travis Kalanick at various times, most recently at the service’s Sydney launch last November.

Another aspect of the car sharing and hire car booking services is their Big Data advantages which the online startups bring.

Historically, car hire companies have been reasonably good at gathering data on their customers with loyalty schemes, direct mailing and plugging into airline frequent flier programs. However they have been left behind by the Big Data boom in recent years.

Companies like Zipcar, Uber and taxi hailing apps like GoCatch have big data in their DNA, having been founded in the era of cloud computing and social media they have access to more information and a better ability to use the knowledge they gather.

Predicting the price surges

At Uber’s Sydney launch Kalanick described how Uber’s traffic volumes increase in San Francisco when the Giants win a game, the interesting thing is that the surge happens three hours before the match starts.

Insights like the traffic patterns around football games and holidays are gold to a high inventory business like hire car services. They are also important to the entire logistics industry.

This latter point is probably the most overlooked part of all with the current rush into social and mobile based apps – the market intelligence that these services gather.

While it’s tempting to dismiss that market intelligence as just monitoring who likes cats or cheeseburgers, the application of that data is transforming supermarkets, airlines and even concert venues.

Avis seem to have understood that it will be fascinating to see how they will use Zipcar’s data and whether their competitors will figure out the importance of what these services offer.

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Uber’s New Year’s test

New Years Eve 2012 is going to be a tough test for the Uber hire car booking service as prices surge.

Update: It appears Uber passed the New Year’s Eve test without problems. There were almost no complaints at all.

New Years Eve 2011 was a tough night for customers of the Uber hire car booking service in New York City when fares surged as partygoers headed home.

This year, Uber hopes to overcome problems by making sure customers are aware with big warnings of prices and even a sobriety test so users can confirm they know what they are doing when they agree to catch a cab.

Uber’s dynamic pricing matches supply with demand, which means a more reliable service but also opens the company to allegations of price gouging during busy periods.

Those allegations are exactly what happened in New York last year and in 2012 Uber’s risks of bad publicity are far higher as the service is now international with operations in cities like London, Paris and Sydney.

Sydney will be the first city to encounter the effects of surge pricing and big risks lie in the Harbour City as Sydneysiders are used to fixed cab fares and enjoy a good whinge when things don’t work in their favour.

Over a million people are expected on the shores of Sydney Harbour to watch the New Year’s Eve fireworks which means cabs and hire cars are at a premium.

If Sydney has the triple fares expected in New York then Uber’s fare from Circular Quay to Bondi Beach will be around $150. This compares to the standard cab fare of around $30.

Those markups will be exploited by the incumbent taxi companies and booking networks. We can expect a wave of stories over the next few days from tame journalists regurgitating the incumbents’ media releases.

How Uber’s Australian management deals with this will be worth watching. One hopes they are prepared a tough week and don’t enjoy the festivities too far past midnight.

Another problem for Uber is going to be Sydney’s mobile data networks which are horribly unreliable during peak periods. It may well be that Uber’s customers and drivers never get a fare anyway.

Last year I was near the Habour Bridge and didn’t have a Vodafone signal from 8pm onwards. I’ll be comparing the performance of all three Aussie networks from the same place tonight.

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Disruption and leadership

Smartphones and the internet are shifting power between suppliers, companies and customers. The new breed of leaders has a tough task.

As new communications tools appear, the challenge for managers is to deal with the disruptions these technologies bring to their businesses.

Launching Deloitte Digital’s release of Taking Leadership in the Digital Economy last week the Executive Director of Telstra Digital Consumers, Gerd Schenkel, described how business is changing as consumers are being empowered by smartphones.

A good example of this is the taxi industry where applications like GoCatch, InGoGo and Uber give passengers the opportunity to fight back against poor service from protected operators.

Sydney is an attractive market for taxi industry disruptors as the current protected market fails both passengers and drivers. Travis Kalanick, the CEO of Uber, said at the Sydney launch of his service earlier last week that the city is one of the more ‘problematic” markets they’ve entered alongside San Francisco and Paris.

That letting down drivers along with passengers is an also an important point – drivers get 80% of Uber’s charges while InGoGo and GoCatch free operators from poor booking systems that frustrate everybody involved in the industry while making the system as unaccountable as possible.

Similar changes are happening in other industries as technology changes the way suppliers, customers and staff work.

A good example of changing work practices is the adoption of Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) policies in the workplace. A few years ago in most businesses it was unthought of that staff could be allowed to bring their own computers to work. Today it’s common and soon the companies that don’t have a BYOD policy will be exception.

BYOD has happened because of the arrival of cheap consumer devices like smartphones and tablets along with IT departments rolling out web based services.

We’ve seen this before – probably the greatest influences on the shape of modern society had been electricity and the motor car. These, and many other technological changes have shaped today’s workplace.

Many businesses though suffer for those changes as we’re seeing with the drying up of the newspapers’ “rivers of gold”.

For Telstra this is seen in the demise of their phone directory business; Sensis was a true river of gold in the days of printed phone directories, but a number of management mis-steps over the last 15 years meant they totally missed the transition to digital.

The tragedy for Telstra that Sensis’ strength in the local advertising market should have been a positive given Google’s failure to execute on their local search strategy.

On reflecting about the struggle to deal with transitions to new technology, just how many business are like Sensis and Fairfax in having leaders that aren’t equipped to deal with these changes.

The leaders of the 1980s whose business models were based on the assumption of economic growth underpinned by easy credit, cheap energy and demographic growth and now finding those factors are moving against them at the same time technology change is disrupting their industries.

For the upcoming generation of leaders, both in business and government, having the ability to adapt to the changed power relationships between customers, suppliers and workers is going to be essential. For those steeped in last century’s certainties, it’s going to be a tough time.

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