Paul Wallbank | Paul Wallbank - Communications Professional

Driving a horse and cart in a digital economy

A lack of understanding about how to use digital tools threatens businesses in the 21st Century

“There’s no point in building a highway if no-one can drive” Tasmanian business leader Jane Bennett said about the Australian National Broadband Network during an interview last week.

Jane was touching on an important point about the digital economy – that most businesses aren’t equipped to deal with it.

That half of businesses in the US, UK or Australia don’t have a website illustrates that in itself. What’s really worrying is setting up a website is the easy part and has been standard for a decade.

In many respects this isn’t new, a similar thing happened when mains electricity or the motor car arrived. Many businesses clung desperately to their oil filled lamps and horse drawn carts way past the time these were superseded.

Well into the 1970s there were hold outs who continued to ply their carts despite the costs of keeping horses on the road being far greater than buying a truck.

That failure to learn about and invest in new technologies saw all those businesses die, many of them with the owner who’d eked out a living as a milko or rag and bone man for decades.

On a bigger level, the struggles of the local milkman with his Clydesdale is a worrying reflection of business underinvestment. These folk are stuck with old equipment because they didn’t have the funds to spend on bringing their equipment up to Twentieth Century standards.

In the 1980s I saw this first hand in some of Australia’s factories. A foreman at a valve manufacturer in Western Sydney boasted to me how he had done his apprenticeship on a particular lathe fifty years earlier.

That machine still had the belt and pulley assembly from the days when the factory was powered by a steam engine at one end of the plant. It had an electric motor bolted onto it some time in the 1960s but was largely unaltered since.

It was understandable many Australian factory owners wouldn’t invest after World War II – many industries were protected and property speculation offered, and still does, better returns.

Another reason for not investing was the sheer cost of buying new equipment, major capital expenditures are risky and for most businesses it wasn’t work taking those risks.

Today there’s a big difference, hardware and software are far cheaper than they were in the 1960s or 70s with the big investment being in understanding and implementing the new technologies.

Few businesses don’t have computers or the internet but most of the things we do online are just variations on how our great grandparents worked with documents, filing cabinets and the penny post. We have to rethink how we use technology in business.

It would be a shame if we find ourselves stuck on the side of the highway wondering what the hell happened in the early years of the 21st Century.

Stage coach image courtesy of Velda Christensen at http://www.novapages.com/

2013 MYOB Business Monitor: Cloud & web-savvy SMEs continue to enjoy better business

15 April 2013

2013 MYOB Business Monitor: Cloud & web-savvy SMEs continue to enjoy better business

Financial chasm has widened between the online-savvy & online-cautious

Small and medium business operators (SMEs) who embrace cloud computing and business websites are much more likely to enjoy rising revenue than others, according to Australia’s largest accounting software provider, MYOB. In fact, those who say they are in the cloud were twice as likely to see an earnings uplift in the past year.

The March 2013 MYOB Business Monitor also found the financial chasm between the online-savvy and the online-cautious is widening, while the take up of online technologies has changed little in the past nine months.

In the latest study of 1,000+ SMEs commissioned to research firm Colmar Brunton only 16% said they use cloud computing in business, up on 14% in the July 2012 report. Only 38% have a business website, unchanged on July.

Those who do use cloud were 106% more likely to see a revenue rise in the past year than those who don’t, up on 53% in July. Similarly, those with a website were 60% more likely to see a revenue rise, also up on 53%.

CEO Tim Reed says, “It’s obvious that as time goes on Australian business operators using cloud computing are increasingly likely to achieve positive financial results. That said, I’m surprised fewer than one in every six say they use cloud in business. This ubiquitous technology has helped so many smaller businesses become better connected, more productive and more competitive.

“Our research findings provide a clear cut case for embracing online technologies in business. The latest study reveals SMEs using cloud were twice as likely to see a revenue rise in the past year than those who aren’t. It’s similar for those with a business website, who were almost two thirds more likely to see a rise than their peers.

“These ratios have increased significantly since the Business Monitor study conducted nine months ago, which suggests the gap in financial performance is widening between the online-savvy and the online-cautious.

“Interestingly, more than half our respondents said they would vote for the political party that proposed ‘providing free government-funded training to all small businesses on how to use the internet to enhance and grow their business.’ This says the majority realise they require further education on how to best employ online technology.

“It’s also clear the majority are unaware of the value in having even a simple website that contains their contact details. Many businesses have first-hand experience of the benefits of being found online, being able to attract and retain customers in this way. Our research proves it can have a tremendously positive financial effect.”

Financial benefits

Business operators in the cloud were not only more likely to see a revenue rise in the past year (33% versus 16% of those who weren’t) they were more likely to expect one in the next year (37% versus 28%). They were also more positive about the domestic economy improving within 12 months (33% versus 23%).

Further, those using cloud computing were more likely to plan to increase these activities in the next year:

§ Focus on customer retention/acquisition strategies: 52% versus 34% who don’t use cloud

§ Prices and margins on products/services sold this year: 36% versus 22%

§ The number or variety of products or services offered: 33% versus 24%

§ Working with business advisers to enhance the business: 30% versus 15%

§ Spending on marketing and advertising their business online: 29% versus 18%

§ Pay their employees more: 28% versus 20%

§ Boost staff numbers this year: 25% versus 11%.

Similarly, those with a business website were not only more likely to see a revenue rise in the past year (24% versus 15%) they were more likely to expect their revenue to increase in the next year (35% versus 27%).

They were also more likely to plan to increase these activities in the next year:

§ Focus on customer retention/acquisition strategies: 49% versus 29% without a website

§ The number or variety of products or services offered: 37% versus 20%

§ Spending on marketing and advertising their business online: 36% versus 10%

§ Their prices and margins on products/services sold this year: 28% versus 19%

§ Pay their employees more: 28% versus 16%

§ Working with business advisers to enhance the business: 22% versus 14%

§ Boost staff numbers this year: 21% versus 8%.

Key drawcards

The most popular reason for cloud use was the ability to access data from whatever location they wanted (52%), well ahead of other reasons. Over one third pointed to being able to have their team members work remotely (36%), while 30% said they used it because their data was better protected and safer online on external servers.

Business operators were also asked what business tasks they used cloud computing for. The top five were: file sharing (50%), file back-up (49%), email (44%), file storage (42%), and online banking (41%).

Those who didn’t use cloud computing were asked why and the top reason was ‘I don’t know enough about it to make the right business decisions about it’ (35%). Ranked second was ‘I am not very tech-savvy and don’t feel confident about even starting to look at it for my business’ (22%), followed by ‘It is of interest, but there are many more important other business priorities to take care of first’ (21%).

Other recent MYOB research found the top three reasons why SMEs without a website hadn’t set one up were ‘we prefer to advertise and market our business using other methods’ (68%), ‘it’s not a priority right now, we have all the work we can handle’ (66%) and ‘we don’t see any value in having a business website’ (60%).

Businesses most likely to be online-savvy

The business types most likely to use cloud computing and have a business website were:

	Cloud computing	Business website
Businesses exporting goods and services	31%	58%
Businesses whose revenue was up in the last 12 months	29%	48%
Business, professional and property services sector	27%	50%
Businesses importing goods and services	26%	64%
Small businesses (5-19 employees)	25%	66%
Metropolitan-based businesses	18%	42%

Across the mainland states, South Australia had the highest proportion of cloud users (22%) and business website owners (42%). In the prior report, New South Wales had the highest proportion of cloud users (15%) while Queensland had the highest proportion of business website owners (47%).

For MYOB product information, research results, business tips, discussions, customer service and more visit the MYOB Business Monitor webpage, The Pulse blog, MYOB LinkedIn, MYOB Facebook or MYOB YouTube.

Fifty trillion shades of grey

Something that’s missed when we talk about Big Data is the risk of false positives – if you dip into the stream, you can prove anything against person.

If you give me six lines written by the hand of the most honest of men, I will find something in them which will hang him said the 17th Century French politician Cardinal Richelieu.

Today those six lines could be written on a social media site or be six disparate points drawn from a database. Without context those six lines could condemn us.

Something that’s missed when we talk about Big Data is the risk of false positives – if you dip into the stream, you can prove anything against person.

The world isn’t black or white, there are fifty trillion shades of gray and that’s why it’s important to think before posting an image on the web, firing someone or calling the cops.

In an era where we’re quick to judge and condemn people, the stakes are very high.

Should Amazon focus on shareholder returns?

Is Jeff Bezos the digital Nelson Bunker Hunt as Amazon continues to gain value while not making any money?

“Shareholder returns” has the been the mantra for the modern manager – particularly when justifying fat salaries and bonuses.

Amazon though is very different – despite the company’s massive market position it doesn’t make profits, founder Jeff Bezos claims he prefers to focus on customer needs.

On a fundamental level Bezos is right – the business that delivers what customers want will succeed. The market doesn’t give a fig about shareholders’ returns or management’s KPIs.

Although making a profit is helpful.

That Amazon is spectacularly unprofitable should worry shareholders, it’s fair enough for a startup in its early days to incur losses but Bezos’ baby is nearly 20 years old and it still isn’t capable of walking on its own.

Yet this doesn’t deter shareholders. Comparing Amazon’s stock price against Apple’s and Microsoft’s is instructive.

Microsoft currently trades at a Price/Earnings ratio of 15.8 while Apple’s is 9.7 – Amazon trades at an infinite P/E.

A school of thought is that Amazon will reap monopoly profits once it conquers the world’s online retail and owns a big chunk of the cloud computing market.

However these are big markets and its unlikely any one company can ever dominate them. Indeed Amazon has failed to do so for nearly two decades despite undercutting most competitors and buying out nimble new rivals.

It’s tempting to think of Jeff Bezos being a modern day Nelson Bunker Hunt.

Bunker Hunt and his brother William spent most of the 1970s trying to corner the global silver market. At the peak of their attempt, silver prices went from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980 only to crash back down to $11 by Easter 1980.

The brothers were bankrupt by the end of the 1980s.

It’s doubtful whether Amazon’s shareholders want to follow that example, so it’s going to be interesting to see how long Jeff Bezos can continue to see the story of putting customers before owners.

Image by By The Cuba Company, New Jersey [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Fire and be dammed, the poor management at tech companies

Quick firing firing of employees who make mistakes shows a weakness in the management of many tech companies.

Microsoft manager Adam Orth has joined the ranks of those fired after some poorly thought out comments found their way onto the Reddit discussion boards. The firing of Orth illustrates a weakness in the management of tech firms.

Orth’s firing follows the “forked dongle” affair where two developers lost their jobs over sexist comments at an industry conference.

What’s notable in all these firings is how Playhaven, SendGrid and Microsoft’s management all summarily fired their employees for what at worse could be described as a ‘lapse of judgement’.

One of the conceits of modern management is that risk can be eliminated, the mark of a poor manager is to act quickly to get rid of anything that could potentially be a risk.

These tech companies are good illustrations of this – neither Adam Orth, Adria Richards or the Playhaven developer deserved to lose their jobs over this, all it required was an apology and commitment to be more careful about what they post on the public internet in future.

All of us, including the sensitive and incompetent firing managers, have something on the internet that could embarrass us or our employers. In an era where people are quick to take offense, it’s easy for something taken out of context to spin out of control.

That’s a risk beyond the control of middle managers at software companies.

Hiding from risks or attempting to purge them is not the way to run an organisation. Strong, good managers can do better than that.

Management manual image by Ulrik through SXC.hu

Hurtling into the post PC era

The latest computer sales figures are not good for those businesses who depend up personal computers.

Consulting firm IDC quarterly report on PC shipment figures this quarter shows a stunning 14% drop of global computer sales. On those numbers, the PC era is definately over.

Across the board the figures are horrible with double digit declines across the board. Market leader HP reported PC sales had fallen by nearly a quarter yet they retained their market lead as all of their competitors reported similar falls.

What’s also notable is the PC industry’s ultrabook attempt to wean consumers off cheap nebooks has backfired terrible, as the analysts note;

Fading Mini Notebook shipments have taken a big chunk out of the low-end market while tablets and smartphones continue to divert consumer spending.

Instead of buying higher priced ultabooks, consumers have abandoned portable PCs altogether and gone to smartphones or tablet computers.

The PC manufacturers must be rueing how they let the tablet computer market slip through their fingers during the 2000s.

Failing to ship decent tablet computers is symptomatic of a bigger problem for the PC manufacturers – their inability to innovate.

The PC industry is struggling to identify innovations that differentiate PCs from other products and inspire consumers to buy, and instead is meeting significant resistance to changes perceived as cumbersome or costly.

As IDC point out, even if they do introduce new products, consumers are wary that any “innovation” is going to be cumbersome. Basically the PC manufacturers have lost their customers’ trust.

How this affects Dell’s proposed buy out remains to be seen; it’s hard to see how investors would not be concerns at a 10% fall in sales, although Dell was one of the better performers.

For Microsoft, this news should further accelerate their moving products and customers to their cloud and enterprise products. For their Windows division it looks like there are tough times ahead.

The decline of the PC market is itself a study in product and innovation cycles. It could well be that the personal computer is going the way of the fax machine.

For some businesses that will be tragedy, but the market – and the opportunities – move on.

They do it different over here

Microsoft and Apple discover the downside of being multinationals in China

Among expats in Thailand the saying was “the locals can ignore the law, but multinationals can’t.”

Thailand has some pretty strict laws on employee wages, workplace safety and council permits. Pretty well every business ignores them except the multinationals.

Generally Thais don’t complain about businesses not complying with the rules and the authorities are reluctant to take action.

Unless you’re a multinational, in which case the slightest irregularity in pay risks a visit from the police.

A few days in the Bangkok Immigration Gaol while the misunderstanding is sorted out is a good lesson for any sloppy farang country manager who hasn’t been ticking all the boxes.

The recent protests in China against Apple and now Microsoft over warranties illustrate a similar situation in the PRC.

What’s fascinating though is how the complaints against Microsoft and Apple are part of the rising Chinese consumer movement.

It’s a tough life being a consumer advocate in China, leading protests against well connected local companies or their government cronies could be a career limiting move, or much worse.

On the other hand it’s safe to criticise an American corporation and its much more likely to get results.

So managers of foreign companies in China have to be far more responsive to complaints than their local counterparts as Apple and Microsoft have learned.

For multinationals there is an upside to this, foreign companies tend to get better staff as they don’t mess people around with pay and their products are seen as being better because they do honor warranties.

It ends up being swings and roundabouts, but it does emphasise the traps for inexperienced expat managers who can unwittingly get themselves in trouble.

Apple and Microsoft have learned their lesson about customer service in China, you wonder how many others are still to do so.

is G’day China a good idea?

Can the proposed China Week be successful in promoting Australian business and trade?

Yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister’s of an Australia Week in China may prove far more successful than the G’day USA events the idea is based upon.

G’day USA has been run for a decade and showcases Australia’s attractions, skills and businesses at events in Los Angeles and New York.

It’s been moderately successful but an emphasis on movie stars appearing at black tie Hollywood events illustrates Australian governments’ disproportionate focus in throwing money at US movie producers.

If China Week follows the US example we can expect private, exclusive dinners where Twiggy Forrest, Clive Palmer and the BHP board entertain Chinese plutocrats over bowls of shark fin soup and braised tigers’ testicles.

Should China Week follow that model then it will probably share G’day USA’s middling successes.

The opportunity to do it differently though is great as the Chinese-Australian relationship is far younger and hasn’t been locked into Crocodile Dundee type stereotypes on both sides.

As the Chinese economy matures and evolves, there’s an opportunity for Australian businesses and industries which haven’t been available for exporters to the US.

Done properly, G’day China could help the profile of Australian businesses in many sectors, particularly in those affected by the great Chinese rebalancing.

Let’s hope they do it properly.

Image of the Chinese embassy in Canberra, Australia from Alpha on Wikimedia

Tasmania and the travelling circus

Big events are good for giving a local economy a short term boost, but how does Tasmania build its economic foundations?

“We bring in almost everything,” says V8 Supercars director Mark Perry as he guided journalists around Launceston’s Symonds Plains racing track.

Everything Mark showed us – a fleet of trucks, communications equipment, hospitality tents and the racing teams themselves would be packed up on Sunday night, shipped to Melbourne and flown to New Zealand for the next race.

The V8 Supercar management are very proud of their work, and they should be given the massive task they have, but it exposes a weakness in the Tasmanian economy in that almost all the high value employment and equipment has to be flown in.

Quiet times in downtown Launceston

Arriving into Launceston on the Friday before the races, it’s interesting how little hype there is around the event. In Sydney, San Francisco or Cannes there would be banners and flags around the city welcoming visitors, in Launceston there’s almost nothing despite the race meeting being one of the state’s biggest events.

It was also surprising how there were no downtown events to complement the main attraction.

Almost every major sporting event from the Olympic Games and FIFA World Cup to the AFL Grand Final and Australian Open has some inner city satellite venues with big screens for the locals who can’t make it to the stadium.

Having those satellite events adds to the buzz and hype in the host city. Something that downtown Launceston needs at 7pm on a Friday night.

That lack of support by the community is notable, particularly in light of the $600,000 per year the cash strapped Tasmanian government pays in subsidies for the V8 Supercars.

I’m against government support for events like these, but if that money is going to spent it may as well be spent properly to maximise the economic benefits.

Subsidies like this would be even better if they were part of some grander economic plan, but like all the payments given to the film production, motor manufacturing and other industries, they are based more on populism than any strategy – the politicians may as well be giving free beer out in Launceston’s main street.

Why the community support is so tepid for the Supercars event is so tepid is something I’m going to be exploring in the next few days as I meet various business leaders in Launceston and Hobart to hear how the state is positioning itself in the 21st Century.

In the meantime, the V8 Supercars “travelling circus” has moved on, hopefully Tassie will have some more long term jobs to show for it.

Paul travelled to Tasmania and the V8 Supercars courtesy of Microsoft Australia

Penny wise and pound foolish

Saving money on technology is often a bad investment as the V8 Supercars found

“We were penny wise and pound foolish” says Peter Trimble, Finance and Systems director of the V8 Supercars, about the IT setup he found when he started with the motor sport organisation 18 months ago.

The V8 Supercars were like many businesses who had outgrown their basic IT setup and were struggling as a result.

A touring organisation – “a travelling circus” as described by CEO David Malone – with 15 races in Australia, New Zealand the US has some fairly unique challenges as contractors, teams and a dispersed workforce put demands on the businesses which a basic small business system struggles to cope with.

What Trimble found at the business were employees struggling with cheap internet connections and antiquated, inadequate servers.

Focusing on the pennies and missing the bigger picture is a common problem when managements skimp on technology which leaves their staff spending more time on IT problems than getting their jobs done.

Basically the $80 a month home internet connection doesn’t cut it when you have more than two or three workers and the server that worked fine when those people were in the same office becomes a security risk when a dozen a people are trying to login over the Internet.

It wasn’t surprising the V8 Supercars management decided to go with a cloud computing service – in this case Microsoft Office 365 – and invest in proper, reliable internet connections.

What the Supercars found that being penny proud and pound foolish with IT doesn’t work for a business, office tech is an essential investment.

Paul travelled to the V8 Supercars in Launceston courtesy of Microsoft Australia.

Australia and the Chinese Mexican stand off

As China rebalances its economy, a new wave of change is about to sweep global trade.

Twenty years ago visitors to Sanya on the south coast of China’s Hainan Island could find themselves staying at the town’s infectious diseases clinic, converted into a backpackers hostel by a group of enterprising doctors.

The Prime Ministers and Presidents attending of Boao Asia Forum this week won’t get the privilege of staying at the infectious diseases hospital as Sanya’s hotel industry has boomed, bust and boomed again following the island being declared a tourism zone in 1999.

Instead, their focus is on the pecking order of nations and for the Australians the news is not good. As the Australian Financial Review reports, the Aussies have been seated well below the salt by their Chinese hosts.

On the Boao list, Australia is outranked by Brunei, Kazakhstan, Myanmar, Zambia, Mexico, and Cambodia – even New Zealand Prime Minister John Key gets higher billing.

Central and South East Asian countries make sense as countries like Myanmar and Kazakhstan are China’s neighbours with strong trade ties.

That the Kiwis have been given priority over the Aussies by the Chinese government is not surprising in light of this.

An unspoken aspect for the Australian attendees to the Baoa conference is how long Canberra’s political classes can continue their forelock tugging fealty to the US without offending the nation’s most important trading partner.

Mexico’s entry on that list could be one of the most important with consequences for Australia and the world.

During the 1992 US Presidential campaign candidate Ross Perot coined the phrase “the great sucking sound” in his opposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the risk of losing jobs to lower cost Mexico.

As it turned out, the giant sucking sound was China – it turned out China’s admission into the World Trade Organisation had far greater consequences for the United States and Mexico than NAFTA.

Mexican manufacturing was one of the greatest victims of China’s rise as US companies found it easier to subcontract work to Chinese factories rather than setup their own plants in Mexico.

Now China is finding its own costs creeping up and labor shortages developing and Mexico is attractive once again. The Chinese and Mexican governments have been working on their relationships for some time.

As manufacturing moves out of China, the shifts in world trade we’ve seen in the last two decades are going to be repeated, this time with Chinese moving up the value chain the lower level work moving to Mexico and other nations.

The leaders at the Baoa conference have their work cut out for them in dealing with another decade of global change.

Corporate palaces and the new Ceasars

An opulent corporate headquarters is often the indicator that management’s mind is on things other than customer service or shareholder’s return.

One of the key traits of managerialism is executives spending vast quantities of shareholders’ money on opulent corporate headquarters, is Apple the latest company to succumb to this disease?

Building a new headquarters is fun for managers. One company I worked for in the early 1990s was debilitated for months as executives spent most of their time moving walls, rearranging desk positions and changing lift designs to reflect their status as grand visionaries.

For the company gripped with delusions of management grandeur a flashy head office is the must have accessory. It’s the corporate equivalent of the Skyscraper Index and is almost as good a predictor that a change in fortunes is imminent.

Apple’s new headquarters is nothing if not impressive. Bloomberg Newsweek reports the building which, at two thirds the size of the Pentagon, will house 12,000 employees is currently estimated at costing five billion dollars, sixty percent over the original budget.

The plans call for unprecedented 40-foot, floor-to-ceiling panes of concave glass from Germany. Before the Cupertino council, Jobs noted, “there isn’t a straight piece of glass on the whole building?…?and as you know if you build things, this isn’t the cheapest way to build them.”

With over a $120 billion in cash, Apple can certainly afford to spend five or ten billion on new digs despite the grumbling of shareholders who have had to settle for a stingy 2.4% dividend from their shares.

The big question though for Apple shareholders though is whether a project like this indicates a company that has peaked with management more intent on building monuments to itself or its genuinely visionary founder rather than deliver returns to owners or products to customers.

On the latter point, there’s no evidence of Apple losing their way with their products yet, but it’s something worth watching in case management becomes distracted with their building project.

For the company I worked for, the distracted managers all vanished one day when the main shareholder of the Thai-Singaporean joint venture discovered they’d been fiddling the books. They probably needed to pay for the office fit out.