Tag: windows

Can Microsoft beat the PC marketplace’s structural decline?

Windows 8 faces big challenges in replacing Microsoft’s cash cows

In New York on Thursday Microsoft will have a marathon launch of their Windows 8 system and the futures of many of their hardware partners lie on the success of the new system.

For Microsoft, Windows 8 could be the last throw of the dice for the desktop operating system that has sustained the company for thirty years.

The figures aren’t good for Windows as Microsoft’s 2012 profit and loss shows, here are the figures broken out by operating unit segment from the company’s annual report.

Year Ended June 30, 2012 2011 2010
Revenue  bn $  bn $  bn $
Windows & Windows Live Division 18,818 18,787 18,789
Operating Income (Loss)
Windows & Windows Live Division 11,908 11,971 12,193

The core Windows & Windows Live Division has stagnant revenues and a slowly declining profit margin. We’ll leave the huge losses in the online division for a future post.

Since the days of the first MS-DOS deal with IBM, Microsoft’s core business has been the licensing of operating systems to PC manufacturers and now that model is in trouble.

For instance Dell had an 8% drop in revenue resulting in a worrying 22% drop in operating profit, their PC dominated consumer division suffered a fat 22% drop in sales and recorded a miniscule .5% profit margin. Similarly Asus had 25% drop in sales to record a 2011 loss.

The pain being suffered by PC manufacturers’ sales and margins will almost certainly be shared by Microsoft as companies like Dell, HP and Asus simply can’t afford to pay the licensing fees which have sustained the Redmond business model for so long.

Microsoft and their partners hope – or pray – that the PC decline is a temporary hiccup in computer sales similar to the traditional lull seen before the release of a new system.

History’s not on their side with research company Asymco expecting sales of tablet computers to overtake PCs sometime in late 2013.

This is not a cyclical trend – the PC industry is in structural decline; the traditional Windows upgrade cycle is dead and Google are running interference with their Chromebook networked laptops.

Moving onto tablets and smartphones in this light makes sense for Microsoft and given the PC manufacturers have failed dismally to deliver decent tablet computers or phones over the last 15 years so it’s understandable the software giant wanted to develop their own hardware or team up with a struggling company like Nokia.

The declining margins in personal computers means we’re seeing the end of the Windows desktop ecosystem. With the rise of the web and cloud computing the type of operating system we use is like arguing between Toyota and BMW drivers; one might be more prestigious but both will get you where you want to go.

For Microsoft the challenge is to replace those Windows licensing rivers of gold with similar revenue streams through their phone and tablet products but with Apple and Google already dominating those fields, is it too late for the company that dominated personal computing? The next six months will tell us.

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The risks of tablet pricing

Are Windows tablet manufacturers repeating last decade’s mistakes?

We often forget that tablet computers weren’t invented by Steve Jobs. For a decade before Microsoft and their partners like Toshiba or Dell had been selling ‘slate-like’ devices.

The market wanted tablet computers, particularly business users in sectors like logistics and health care, but the Windows products on offer were heavy, clunky and expensive.

It took the iPad to deliver what the market wanted —  a lightweight, easy to use and reasonably priced tablet computer. This was the reason Apple were so successful.

With Asus’ pricing announcement of their new range of Windows 8 tablets it appears the mistakes made by the PC industry with tablet computers ten years ago are going to be repeated.

The fundamental thing that will kill Windows tablets is cost and these tablets are too expensive compared to the Apple and Android competitors.

While having Windows compatibility and the opportunity to save to USB drives or corporate networks is handy in a tablet, there seems to be little reason for customers not to buy a mid-priced laptop.

It appears though these price points are part of Microsoft’s strategy. Steve Ballmer hinted at this in his Seattle Times interview last weekend.

Q: The iPad has the largest share of the tablet market, but its soft spot, it seems to me, is the price.With the Surface, are you planning to compete with the iPad on price or on features?

A: We haven’t announced pricing. I think we have a very competitive product from the features perspective. …

I think most people would tell you that the iPad is not a superexpensive device. … (When) people offer cheaper, they do less. They look less good, they’re chintzier, they’re cheaper.

If you say to somebody, would you use one of the 7-inch tablets, would somebody ever use a Kindle (Kindle Fire, $199) to do their homework? The answer is no; you never would. It’s just not a good enough product. It doesn’t mean you might not read a book on it….

If you look at the bulk of the PC market, it would run between, say, probably $300 to about $700 or $800. That’s the sweet spot.

The problem is the tablet computer market isn’t the PC market and those price points have changed.

What’s more, the features that attract users to tablet devices or smartphones are different to that of PCs.

Basically PCs, tablets and smartphones are different products.

Applying PC pricing structures, or marketing models, to the tablet market is a risky strategy.

Steve Jobs didn’t do this and Apple succeeded with the iPhone and iPad without damaging their Mac sales, whether Microsoft can pull of a similar achievement with the opposite strategy remains to be seen.

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Hands on with Microsoft Office 365 and a Windows 8 tablet

Giving the new version of Office a run on a Windows tablet

One of the key planks of Microsoft meeting the challenge presented by online services like Google Docs is their cloud based Office365.

The success of Office365 is important as Microsoft Office makes up a large chunk of the 24 billion dollars in sales, and $15 billion dollar profit, the company books from its Business Division.

Coupled to this threat is also the move from personal computers to smartphones and tablet devices which Microsoft hope to meet with their Window 8 operating system, Surface tablet computer and Windows Phone.

As part of the Australian TechEd 2012 Conference, Microsoft gave a hands on preview of the Office 365 running on a Windows 8 tablet which was a good opportunity to see how both software packages worked.

Office 365

Office365 is very similar in layout and function to Office 2010 – if you’re using earlier versions of Office, particularly Office 2003, then you may find the ribbon bar and changed menus hard to navigate at first.

Integration with Microsoft’s Skydrive is good and seamless. A nice feature in this is how a user can setup multiple Skydrive accounts as separate drives. How well this works while on the road will have to be tested away from a controlled environment like the one at the TechEd meeting rooms.

The touch screen functions are fairly hard to get used to and they don’t work particularly well with fat fingers which Microsoft attempts to overcome with providing a stylus.

Another complexity is that the menus and touch screen functions aren’t consistent across applications. The handy ‘pinch’ gesture to zoom on Windows 8 doesn’t work on the Office applications on the tablet which is a shame and is also a bit irritating for power users.

Office365 adds a range of other features like web publishing, video editing and IT management tools but the hands on demo didn’t give enough time to properly evaluate these aspects.

Window 8

The first thing that jumps out with Windows 8 is the basic interface isn’t intuitive. The tile based system is difficult to use if you’re used to a keyboard and mouse or mobile systems like Apple iOS and Android.

Another worry is the Windows 8 interface – or “Metro” as it was known – uses different applications to the desktop version. The problem with this was illustrated when trying to run a video on the device as the Internet Explorer in the Windows 8 interface was a different version to that on the desktop so videos would run in one mode, but not on the other.

This confusion between software versions is a recipe for user confusion, lost data and possibly even a security weakness. It’s surprising that having effectively two operating systems running on the device was considered to be a good idea.

Looking under the hood at the Control Panel, the Windows NT heritage of Window 8 becomes apparent. Anybody used to tinkering with the settings on Windows XP, Vista or 7 systems will have no trouble finding their way around the new version.

Overall the performance of Windows 8 was impressive. It’s quite fast and responsive and this is something that Microsoft’s demonstrators are proud of.

Tablet blues

The surprising thing was the Windows 8 system was running on a Samsung tablet with still no ship date for the Windows hardware.

The Windows 8 about screen on a Samsung Tablet

With Christmas approaching, Microsoft are running out of time to compete in the tablet market and it seriously raises questions on whether the Surface tablets were prematurely announced.

The experience with Office365 on the Windows Tablet was satisfactory although the demonstration showed there’s some barriers to adopting tablets as the main work computers.

Office 365 shows the strengths Microsoft have in the market, if Microsoft can get their tablet strategy right then they have a good product to compete with Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android.

Time will tell if they or their hardware partners can get products that customers want onto the market.

Paul travelled to TechEd and stayed at the Gold Coast as a guest of Microsoft Australia.

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I’m not paid to have doubts

What do you do when the CEO has no doubts?

The Seattle Times has an interesting interview with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer this weekend where he discusses what has been one of the biggest years ever for his company.

Midway through the Seattle Times story there’s a telling exchange.

Q: What is Microsoft’s plan if Windows 8 doesn’t take off?

A: You know, Windows 8 is going to do great.

Q: No doubt at all?

A: I’m not paid to have doubts. (Laughs.) I don’t have any. It’s a fantastic product. …

There is no plan B – Windows Phone is running late and their hardware partner Nokia is looking more foolish every day. Last week not only did they flub the launch of their latest phone, but they also managed to alienate the world’s tech media at the event.

It’s nice not to have doubts, but from outside the comfortable corporate headquarters Microsoft looks like they are struggling in this space.

Steve Ballmer might be more credible if he did admit to doubts and at least hint there is a plan B in their smartphone strategy.

Companies need leaders with doubts – doubts about their strategy, about their managers, about the economy and – most importantly – about their own infallibility.

One of the worst aspects of 1980s management ideology was the myth of the CEO superstar. Too many good businesses have been destroyed, and too much damage done to the global economy, by senior executives who have believed in their own infallibility.

Some doubts might help a business, particularly when that company is struggling with some serious threats.

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Microsoft TechEd Australia 2012

Microsoft’s Australian TechEd in 2012 comes at an important time for the software giant.

2012 is the year that will define Microsoft as the market place they have dominated moves to tablet computers and smart phones.

The challenge for Microsoft is how they migrate their desktop and server products to the platforms dominated by Amazon, Google and Apple.

At this year’s TechEd Australian conference the pressure is on Microsoft to present how they will deal with this challenge from tablet computers, mobile phones and cloud computing.

The big ticket item is the Windows phone. After the disastrous launch of the Nokia Lumia 920, Microsoft has to convince the market place they have a viable competitor to the iPhone and the plethora of Google Android devices.

Microsoft have taken the opposite strategy to Apple in trying to offer the same operating system on all their devices. If Windows 8 can run on all systems then they have a chance of locking high margin corporate users onto their platforms.

Windows 8 itself has to have a compelling story to tell. Much of Microsoft’s future relies upon a successful rollout of the new operating system that meets the demands of both consumers and businesses. Users increasingly expect social media and cloud computing services to be integrating into their systems.

Cloud computing is an important part of Microsoft’s corporate strategy and how the new version of Windows Server delivers on the business requirements of using cloud services will be an important factor in the product’s success.

One of Microsoft’s most profitable product lines has been their Office suite of applications. Margins on Office have been under pressure since the release of the free Google Docs suite and the corporate Google Apps product.

The advantage Microsoft have in the office productivity market is their products have the full range of feature business users need and Google, and Apple, have struggled to include these tools in their products.

With new versions of Office, Server, Phone and Windows all being released Microsoft have a lot of stories to tell and the stakes for the software giant are huge. It’s going to be an interesting few days at the Gold Coast Convention Centre.

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Windows 8 to launch on October 26

The next version of Windows gets a release date.

It’s official, Windows 8 has an October 6, 2012 release date.

For Microsoft, the pressure is now on. Not only does the desktop version have to be shipped but also the smartphone and tablet versions. Their cloud services are going to have to be flawless on the day Windows 8 goes live.

The tablet version is doubly important as Microsoft has to convince cynics like me that the Microsoft Surface is not vapourware. With the Surface RT scheduled for release with Windows 8, Microsoft are going to have to announcing pricing and final specifications very soon. Reports are that the Surface is beginning to appear on Amazon sites so release may not be far away.

Nokia too will now be under a lot of pressure as releasing credible Windows 8 are the only hope for the company’s future. As it is, the current range of Lumia phones are now dead in the water despite massive discounts.

As we’ve previously discussed, Windows 8 is essential to Microsoft’s market position and will define their future – a failure will almost certainly lock the once dominant software giant to a another lost decade.

We’ll see a lot advertising and PR hype around Windows over the next few months, the real test will come at the end of October and with the Christmas buying season.

By the middle of next year we’ll have a good idea of just how successful Windows 8 will be. Steve Ballmer’s future depends upon it.

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Driving Windows 8

Can Microsoft Office 2013 drive Windows 8 sales?

Microsoft today released their preview edition of Office 2013, the product that underpins the company’s dominance of the business IT sector.

Users sticking with an older version of Windows hurt Microsoft’s bottom line and one of the key parts of the company strategy with Office is to drive adoption of the latest operating systems which usually means buying new computers.

The problem for Microsoft is that there has been no real compelling reason for users to upgrade for a decade since the release of Office 2003.

Coupled with the failure of Microsoft Vista, this had damaged the PC industry’s model of users upgrading computers every three to five years.

Microsoft would be hoping the cloud integration features, the same versions on desktops, tablets and smartphones coupled with keen prices will be enough to make contented XP users make the jump to Windows 8 and buy a new computer as well.

Whether it does will depend on the market caring – if users simply don’t care about Office 2013, let alone Windows 8 on either desktops or smartphones, then Microsoft will struggle.

Unfortunately for Microsoft, the era where they could dictate what people used on their computers is over and that could be their biggest management challenge of all.

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