Twenty trends for 2020

What trends will define the rest of this decade?

I’m speaking at the Ovations Speaker Showcase next week on the Twenty Trends for 2020. A big ask for twenty minutes.

Despite the time limits, it’s doable. Here’s the list of trends I think are going to define the rest of this decade, along with some  related links.

  1. Accelerated rate of business
  2. China moving up the value chain
  3. Dealing with a society at retirement age
  4. Rising incomes in South Asia and Africa
  5. Robotics and Automation
  6. The internet of machines
  7. Reinventing entertainment
  8. The fall and rise of social media
  9. The continued rise of the DIY economy
  10. Newspapers cease to exist
  11. 3D printing
  12. nano-technology
  13. The new education revolution
  14. Reskilling the workforce
  15. Older workers re-entering the workforce
  16. The fight for control of the mobile payments system
  17. Mobile apps redefining service industries
  18. Taming the Big Data tsunami
  19. The fight for data rights
  20. Flatter organisations
  21. The great deleveraging

Apart from the fact there’s 21, the twenty minutes I have allocated isn’t going to be enough to cover these. So which topics do I skate over?

Of course there might be more topics that I’ve missed. I’m open to suggestions.

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The View From The Cloud

Where is the cloud computing industry heading and how does it affect businesses?

I’m presenting View From The Cloud this afternoon where we look at the results of SmartCompany’s technology in business survey.

The results are interesting, with nearly half the respondents saying they don’t use any cloud services.

Almost certainly, those respondents are wrong – they don’t realise many of the things they do on the web are cloud based. The 9% who nominated “they don’t know” are closer to the truth.

Those “unknown unknowns” are the big challenge for business managers and owners – those who think cloud computing isn’t being used in their organisations don’t know what their staff are up to with their laptops and smartphones.

Of those who are knowingly using cloud computing services, over two-thirds said they did so for the flexibility while just under a half appreciated the cloud services’ ability to grow with their business.

An encouraging aspect of the survey is how only a quarter of the respondents nominated price as being the reason for adopting cloud services.

This is an aspect of selling cloud computing services that has worried me for a while, that companies are commoditising their market by giving away free – or insanely – cheap services.

As always, price doesn’t drive the good customers and this survey illustrates that. Provide a good service at reasonable price points and the customers will come.

Business respondents also illustrated a mature attitude towards risks with cloud service with 61% concerned about data safety and half of that number worried about access issues.

An interesting part of the threat response was that 17% had other concerns about cloud technologies – including being tied to one vendor.

This is an interesting attitude which indicates people don’t understand the degree of vendor lock in that already exists in the computer world and why the majority of businesses are using Windows computers running Microsoft Word. If anything, cloud services are far more open than boxed software.

Vendor lock in though is a real concern and something that all cloud computing users should check before they, or their business, becomes too dependent on any one software package, consultant or online application.

Overall, the SmartCompany business technology survey is an interesting snapshot of where business is today with emerging trends and services. Join us at 12.30 to discuss the results.

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Online tools to turbocharge your business

Flying Solo’s Independents Day looked at how the web can help business productivity.

Flying Solo’s 2011 Independents Day conference featured our Online Tools to Turbocharge your Business.

We looked at some of the most popular cloud computing, social media, productivity and collaboration tools that can help a business make more money and grow faster.

Most importantly, it shows how business owners can free up some of their most valuable asset – their time.

Some of the tools we discussed include the popular social media platforms like Facebook, LinkedIn and how they can be used for customer service and market intelligence on top of being marketing services.

We also looked at how collaborative and cloud computing services can help small businesses work together and improve the ways consultants can work with big business clients. In many ways, collaborative tools like Google Apps, Zoho and Dropbox help build team and deliver projects more effectively.

The Online Tools to Turbocharge Your Business presentation itself is available on Slideshare and if you subscribe to our newsletter, you’ll receive a free copy of the accompanying Online Business Essentials e-book.

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The Networked Business

The first of the City Of Sydney’s Let’s Talk Business looked at how business can use the cloud

The first of the City Of Sydney’s Let’s Talk Business workshops looked at how business can use cloud computing services to help improve the marketing, operations and profitability.

My presentation, Business In The Cloud covered the definition of cloud computing, the benefits for business, the risks and the case for getting on the cloud.

The text of the presentation, shown here has been broken into four segments each addressing the individual points.

What is the cloud?

The opening section looked at what cloud computing is, the underlying definitions and how it works. We discussed how the underlying concepts of cloud computing are nothing new and how the concepts of shared resources across a reliable and robust network are part of the very reason for the Internet itself.

The benefits of cloud computing

Having defined cloud computing we look at the benefits of these services, focusing on the flexibility online software delivers and how businesses can use these tools to quickly seize opportunities in our fast changing society.

Risky business

Every new technology has its risks and cloud computing is no different. In our third presentation we look at some of the online traps and how to manage them.

The business case for cloud computing

Concluding the presentation is a summary of the business case, balancing the benefits and the risks and concluding with how businesses might use cloud services.

Further information

Illustrating how businesses can use online tools, we have a list of some of popular business cloud services that can help your organisation use the web to be more flexible and innovative.

The presentation was part of the Let’s Talk Business series of workshops run by the City of Sydney and held at the Customs House. There’s three more events in the 2011 series covering the new consumer, mobile internet and business leadership.

If you’ve been along to the Lets Talk Business events, or have some ideas on how business can use cloud services, we’d love to hear your comments.

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The networked business Part 4: The business case for cloud computing

Part 4 of the Let’s Talk Business Cloud Presentation

This is the fourth and final part of the presentation given as part of the City of Sydney’s Let’s Talk Business series of events on new business technologies.

The case for business cloud computing

Cloud computing is part of the future of of business. Increasingly it’s going to become of fundamental part of our society as we become more connected.

Business is open 24 hours. Even if your office or staff aren’t working at 4am on a Sunday, customers are checking your website to look at your products. If you are selling online, everything has to be running.

The cloud is not a tool for every business. For some, the risks or limitations mean they are better served running application or storing data on their own computer.

For most businesses though the cloud changes the game, it makes them more flexible and productive.

In an era where we’re seeing massive change in our economy and society, it’s the business who can respond quickly to the new normal who will survive and prosper.

Cloud computing helps businesses adapt and are part of the key to running a successful enterprise in the 21st Century.

This is the third of a series of four posts taken from The Networked Business presentation. Parts One, Two and Three are also online. A list of the useful business cloud computing tools to accompany this article.

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The networked business Part 3: Managing risk in the cloud

Part 3 of the Let’s Talk Business Cloud Presentation

This is the third part of the presentation given as part of the City of Sydney’s Let’s Talk Business series of workshops on new business technologies.

Not always free

There are some misconceptions about cloud services though.

Just last year, the Australian Financial Review ran a front page article headlined “massive savings to be made in the cloud” stating that cloud services can save a business up to 80% on its IT spend.

Many industries have made the mistake of relying on cheap prices to get customers through the door. Think of Myer’s problems with their perpetual sales, a mistake being repeated today by dozens of smaller businesses offering 80% off meals or haircuts through the group buying services.

In the Internet based industries we’ve made the mistake of training our customers to believe we can do everything online for free.

Free is an illusion, there is almost always a cost and on the net you’ll either pay by spending time or giving away your own, or your clients’, privacy.

The better services cost. The most successful cloud service, Salesforce.com, is quite expensive although still substantially cheaper than the server based alternatives.

Many services though are based on the freemium model, when you need additional features or grow beyond a certain size charges kick in or increase with your needs.

Mail Chimp, an online email management system is an example. Late last year I resurrected a mailing list which hadn’t been used for 18 months. I chose to pay the fee for MailChimp as their management service would deal with the hundreds of invalid addresses and unsubscribes a neglected mailing list always attracts when you restart it.

Not only did MailChimp deal adequately with these problems but it also took the size of the mailing list below the 2,000 name threash hold for their free service.  So spending a bit of money actually saved a lot more money and a massive amount of time. It also illustrated the flexibility of cloud systems and their pricing models.

The risks

Nothing though is risk free. Any technological change comes with risks; electricity changed humanity but thousand of people die every year from misusing it. We can say the same for the motor car, steam engines and penicillian.

For all the benefits of Internet technologies they too have their own risks. In cloud computing we can divide them into three major groups; Reliability, Terms of service and Security.

Security

Probably the most misunderstood, and so riskiest, aspect of IT is security. Most business people over estimate the security of their own systems and are shocked when their data is compromised by viruses, hackers or, most commonly, their own staff walking out the door with vital information.

Cloud services generally have better security than most business networks as they have the resources to deal with the massive task of keeping computing systems secure, but there are still risks in using online providers.

Strong passwords begin to matter and guarding them is important as well.

Granular access, not giving everyone access to everything also becomes very important. This is also a common problem on small business networks.

Accessing cloud services from shared computers or through unsecured wireless networks is probably the biggest danger, particularly with mobile workers. It’s important any provider you use offers encrypted services, which you can tell from the login page showing https:// at the beginning, and making sure you log off when you finish using computers in Internet cafes or in other people’s offices.

Terms of service

When using cloud services you have to understand these are someone else’s computers you are occupying so you have to play by their rules regardless how arbitrary they seem.

Wikileaks is a good example of how large cloud and Internet providers use ToS to shut down customers they don’t like.

You don’t have to upset the CIA or Julia Gillard to get into trouble. Victoria Buckley Jewellers in Sydney’s Strand Arcade uses beautiful porcelain dolls to model their products. One of the female dolls has nipples and Facebook shut down Victoria’s account after a series of photos showed the doll topless, nudity being a breach of Facebook’s conditions.

A more common problem is eBay shutting down traders’ accounts on spurious piracy claims. This is very common and genuine risk to anyone running an online store relying on PayPal or eBay.

Probably the best example of silly piracy claims is when the University of Florida hit the Flickr photo sharing service with claims that every photo with a description containing the words “Florida” and “football” was a breach of their college grid iron team’s copyright.

The howls of outrage from angry Flickr users when their pictures of kids playing football while on holiday in Florida or local team photos were taken down soon convinced both organisations that their actions were hasty and ill-advised.

The problem remains though that online services are still too quick to shut down other people’s services so you need to plan for these type of disruptions.

Reliability

Tied closely into the terms of service is reliability.

Reliability is at the heart of all technologies. If something breaks down most of the time you use it, then it’s of little use to your business.

If you are using a cloud service you need to have both reliable internet connections and a provider you can trust. This is why free services often don’t cut it for business use.

One aspect cloud services and technology companies often sell is the Service Level Agreement or SLA, these offer a refund if the service doesn’t perform to set standards. While SLAs are useful, they don’t make up for the disruption a service interruption causes your business. As Virgin Blue found during their service problems late last year.

As we’ve seen with the recent natural disasters in Japan, New Zealand and Queensland, the Internet routes itself around problems. So if you are in a problem area the challenges of keeping your business operating may be increased while communications are still being repaired

Redundancy is the key, just as the Internet and cloud computers have redundant features, so too should your systems. You have to choose providers that let you easily download usuable data from their services in case you find yourself offline or unhappy with their product.

This is the third of a series of four posts taken from The Networked Business presentation. Parts One, Two and Four are also online

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The networked business Part 2: The benefits of cloud computing

Part 2 of the Let’s Talk Business Cloud Presentation

This is the second part of the presentation given as part of the City of Sydney’s Let’s Talk Business series of presentations on new business technologies.

Scalability

This scalability, or flexibility, of cloud computing changes the way we buy and use technology. No longer are we locked into major technology investments as leasing services off larger companies means we don’t have the capital costs of investing in computers, servers and all the associated software purchases and support charges.

An architect or designer a few years ago might spend $10,000 per employee every three years kitting them out with the latest workstation capable of running AutoCAD or another high end design program.

While some businesses still need that sort of investment, most can now get away with just a computer running a web browser and the boss can pay the monthly bills on her credit card rather than having to take out a loan against the family home.

The 19th Century Prussian general, Helmuth von Moltke said “no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy” and similarly no business plan survives its first contact with the marketplace. The flexibility of cloud computing means we aren’t locked into expensive technology choices as our business evolves to meet the changing demands of our customers and industries.

Teamwork

Collaboration is another of the big buzz words of today’s economy. The truth is all successful businesses are a collaborative effort and have been since the days of cavemen hunting mammoths.

One of the biggest irritants with PC based systems is how they are designed for one user at a time and how many force you to pay for an unreliable multi user versions.

Think about Microsoft Word, if you’re accessing it on the network you’ll find only one user at a time can read or edit it. This was true of the older desktop accounting packages.

The older, desktop based accounting packages only allow one user. Their multiple user, network packages are expensive and clunky. The cloud based systems like Xero or Saasu, an online service based out of Elizabeth Street here in Sydney come with the teamwork functions built in.

Recently at a workshop in Melbourne, a director of a large services company told me how his board of directors are using Google Docs to work together on agendas and committee documents. Using cloud services are saving him and his colleagues many hours of work and avoiding having big piles of documents dumped on them the weekend before their board meetings.

The team aren’t just your employees, it can also be your customers, suppliers and other business partners. Cloud services allow you to share selected information without compromising your own systems.

Mobile working

By definition your customers and suppliers aren’t in your office. Increasingly your staff and even the boss aren’t there either.

Working on the move has been one of the great weakness of both PC computing and the mainframe era. Cloud computing, made possible by accessible and affordable Internet, means we can now easily access data and applications while we’re on the road.

Remote working has been possible in the past, but it was awkward and difficult. To set up secure connections usually involved setting up a complex and flaky Virtual Private Network that tended to choke at the times you needed it.

In my own IT support business we saw this a number of times where we struggled to set up reliable remote networking connections. For instance the owner of a business in Pyrmont decided to move his home to Orange and telecommute into the office. At the same time his assistant had a baby and wanted to work from home.

The juggling of hardware and server requirements so the client had a secure and reliable service was difficult and expensive. Today the use of online accounting and office packages along with cloud based document sharing services like Dropbox, that business could be paying $100 a month without any upfront capital costs.

Dismantling edifices

Those capital costs are real, a five person Sydney law firm I know ended up spending thirty thousand dollars when their software provider told them they had to upgrade their systems.

Much of a big or small businesses IT budget goes into building impressive technological edifices that add little to the profitability of the business.

Worse, IT is a time consuming beast – in a big business hundreds of people are employed to keep their computers running. In a small business, the proprietor or manager spends a disproportionate amount of time messing with technology.

Cloud services take a lot of that load off businesses.

We should keep in mind though that this is as big a benefit for big businesses as well as small. Last year the Commonwealth Bank of Australia announced they were moving services to the cloud.

The big end of town has woken up to the benefits of cloud computing, while they have a problem in dismantling their massive structures once they do they will be stronger more nimbler competitors as their cloud platforms make it easier for them to respond to market changes.

Barriers are falling

As large businesses are learning, removing big capital costs reduces barriers to testing new ideas. It means getting a new business up and running is cheaper and quicker than ever before.

On the back of Sydney Buses at the moment you’ll see ads for Freelancer.com, stating you can get an iPhone app or website developed from $30. While the reality is you’ll pay quite a bit more than that, the point is well made – with a web browser and a credit card you can outsource large parts of your business.

Most of these outsourcing businesses are run on cloud services. Many of the social media successes like Facebook and Twitter grew by hiring space off cloud computing services such as Amazon.

For established businesses, the cloud is changing the very fundamentals of their operations. One of the biggest growing areas in the outsourcing industry is the legal profession where law firms are giving lower level work to companies in India that can carry out the tasks of junior lawyers or paralegals. The cloud technologies these services use allow the law firms to supervise and bill for the workers as if they were in the same building.

Because you can be up and running in minutes using cloud computing services without the need of installing software on your computer, let alone the time involved in managing and downloading updates, it’s a quick and effective way to grow your business.

This is the second of a series of four posts taken from The Networked Business presentation. Parts One, Three and Four are also online.

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