Category: Speaking engagements

  • Fear in the cloud – the loss of trust in online business

    Fear in the cloud – the loss of trust in online business

    Today I spoke about online safety to the Australian Seniors’ Computer Clubs Association about staying safe online.

    Hopefully I’ll have a copy of the presentation up tomorrow but what was notable about the morning was the concern among the audience about security and safety of cloud services.

    The ASCCA membership are a computer savvy bunch – anyone who disparages older peoples’ technology nous would be quickly put in their place by these folk – but it was notable just how concerned they are about online privacy. They are not happy.

    Another troubling aspect were my answers to the questions, invariably I had to fall back on the lines “only do what you’re comfortable with”  and “it all comes down to a question of trust.”

    The problem with the latter line is that it’s difficult to trust many online companies, particularly when their business models relies upon trading users’ data.

    Resolving this trust issue is going to be difficult and it’s hard to see how some social media platforms and online businesses can survive should users flee or governments enact stringent privacy laws.

    It may well be we’re seeing another transition effect happening in the online economy.

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  • On running late

    On running late

    Business Insider’s unathorised biography of Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer is both enlightening and scary while giving some insight into the psyche of the tech industry.

    Nicholas Carlson’s story tells the warts and all tale to date of a gifted, focused and difficult to work with lady who’s been given the opportunity to lead one of the Dot Com era’s great successes back into relevance. It’s a very good read.

    Two things jump out in the story; Mayer’s desire to surround herself with talented people and her chronic lateness.

    When asked why she decided to work at a scrappy startup called Google, which see saw as only having a two percent chance of success, Mayer tells her ‘Laura Beckman story’ of her school friend who chose to spend a season on the bench of her school varsity volleyball team rather than play in the juniors.

    Just as Laura became a better volleyball player by training with the best team, Mayer figured she’d learn so much more from the smart folk at Google. It was a bet that paid off spectacularly.

    Chronic lateness is something else Mayer picked up from Google. Anyone whose dealt with the company is used to spending time sitting around their funky reception areas or meeting rooms waiting for a way behind schedule Googler.

    To be fair to Google, chronic lateness is a trait common in the tech industry – it’s a sector that struggles with the concept of sticking to a schedule.

    One of the worst examples I came across was at IBM where I arrived quarter of an hour before a conference was due to start. There was no-one there.

    At the appointed time, a couple of people wandered in. Twenty minutes later I was about to leave when the organiser showed up, “no problem – a few people are running late,” he said.

    The conference kicked off 45 minutes late to a full room. As people casually strolled in I realised that starting nearly an hour late was normal.

    It would drive me nuts. Which is one reason among many that I’ll never get a job working with Marissa Mayer, Google or IBM.

    A few weeks ago, I had to explain the chronic lateness of techies to an event organiser who was planning on using a technical speaker for closing keynote.

    “Don’t do it,” I begged and went on to describe how they were likely to take 45 minutes to deliver a twenty minute locknote – assuming they showed up on time.

    The event organiser decided to look for a motivational speaker instead.

    Recently I had exactly this situation with a telco executive who managed to blow through their alloted twenty minutes, a ten minute Q&A and the closing thanks.

    After two days the audience was gasping for a beer and keeping them from the bar for nearly an hour past the scheduled finish time on a Friday afternoon was a cruel and unusual punishment.

    This was by no means the first time I’d encountered a telco executive running chronically over time having even seen one dragged from the stage by an MC when it became apparent their 15 minute presentation was going to take at least an hour.

    It’s something I personally can’t understand as time is our greatest, and most precious, asset and wasting other people’s is a sign of arrogance and disrespect.

    Whether Marissa Mayer can deliver returns to Yahoo!’s long suffering investors and board members remains to be seen, one hopes they haven’t set a timetable for those results.

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  • Have we come to the end of the middle class era?

    Have we come to the end of the middle class era?

    Technology has transformed workplaces over the last century, drove huge income growth and moved many into the middle classes. Are we now seeing computers and robots displacing those middle class jobs?

    At Tech Crunch Jon Evans warns Get Ready To Lose Your Job  as “this time it’s different” – unlike earlier periods of industrialisation where jobs shifted to the new technologies such coach builders became car makers – robots and computers are making humans redundant.

    So I see no mystical Singularity on the horizon. Instead I see decades of drastic nonlinear changes, upheaval, transformation, and mass unemployment. Which, remember, is ultimately a good thing. But not in the short term.

    In The Observer John Naughton, professor of the public understanding of technology at the Open University, says Digital Capitalism Produces Few Winners.

    Professor Naughton’s view is that high volume, low margin businesses like Amazon mean there’s fewer well paid jobs available and many of the lower positions will be soon replaced by robots.

    At the other end of the digital marketplace, the high margin businesses like Apple, Google and Salesforce don’t need many staff to generate their profits, so wealth is concentrated among a small group of managers and owners.

    While the low paid and manufacturing workers have been squeezed for decades in the West, it’s now the turn of the middle classes to feel the pain of automation, outsourcing and restructuring.

    There’s two ways we can look at these changes, the optimistic is that our economy is going through a transition to a different structure; those out of work coachbuilders a hundred years ago didn’t immediately get jobs building cars and the same adjustments are happening again.

    A more pessimistic view is that the Twentieth Century was an aberration.

    It may be that Western world’s steady climb into middle class prosperity was itself a transition effect and we’re returning to the economic structures of the pre-industrialised age where the vast majority of people have a precarious income and only the fortunate few can afford middle class luxuries.

    The next decade will give us some clues, but the portents aren’t good for the optimistic case, the Pew Research Centre shows America’s middle classes has been shrinking for forty years.

    For those Americans still in the middle class, the Pew research shows their incomes have been falling for a decade.

    Regardless of which scenario is true, the dislocation is with us. As individuals we have to be prepared for changes to our jobs, however safe they look today. As a society we have to accept we are going through a period of economic and social upheaval with uncertain long term consequences.

    What’s particularly notable is how today’s political and business leaders seem oblivious to these changes and are locked in the ‘old normal’ of thirty or fifty years ago.

    One wonders what it will take to wake them up to the changes happening around them and what will happen when reality does bite them.

    Picture of a nice, middle class house by Strev via sxc.hu

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  • Our evolving view of robots

    Our evolving view of robots

    Ahead the Ovations Speaker Showcase on Tuesday, I’ve been looking at robots as one of this decade’s trends.

    What’s interesting is how our perception of robots has evolved over the last half century.

    The idea of Robots in the 1950s and  60s were ones with human shapes – four legs, a torso, two arms, shoulders and a head – otherwise known as anthropomorphic. Lost in Space and the Day the Earth Stood Still are two good examples of those human like machines.

    How robots looked in the 1950s
    1950s robot chic – the day the Earth stood still

    Today’s robots have much more utilitarian shapes, like the Winbot window cleaner pictured at the beginning of this post.

    Many of the robots look like the machines we use today, mainly because they are today’s technology with the driver or operator replaced. A good example being the Google self driving cars.

    google self driving car

    The idea of a robotic car isn’t completely new though; the 1980s action series Knight Rider featured KITT, a robot car with an almost equally mechanical David Hasslehof as its sidekick.

    The Hoff and KITT

    More interesting still are the tiny robots who look, and act, like insects. Wait until these guys infest your internet fridge.

    All of these technologies had to wait until computers became small and cheap enough to fit into the systems. In the 1980s a computer with the capabilities to run KITT or a Google Car would be the size of a large warehouse, today it can fit inside a cigarette packet.

    Of course the real power for robots comes when computers talk to each other and form a collective intelligence. This is the Internet of machines.

    The terminator
    Skynet has told The Terminator to destroy us all.

    Which brings us to Arthur C. Clarke’s and Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey and the 1980s vision of Skynet which gave birth to the Terminator.

    Hopefully those visions of the future of network connected robot are just as misguided as those of 1950s movies.

    If they aren’t, we’re in a lot of trouble.

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  • Twenty trends for 2020

    Twenty trends for 2020

    I’m speaking at the Ovations Speaker Showcase next week on the Twenty Trends for 2020. A big ask for twenty minutes.

    Despite the time limits, it’s doable. Here’s the list of trends I think are going to define the rest of this decade, along with some  related links.

    1. Accelerated rate of business
    2. China moving up the value chain
    3. Dealing with a society at retirement age
    4. Rising incomes in South Asia and Africa
    5. Robotics and Automation
    6. The internet of machines
    7. Reinventing entertainment
    8. The fall and rise of social media
    9. The continued rise of the DIY economy
    10. Newspapers cease to exist
    11. 3D printing
    12. nano-technology
    13. The new education revolution
    14. Reskilling the workforce
    15. Older workers re-entering the workforce
    16. The fight for control of the mobile payments system
    17. Mobile apps redefining service industries
    18. Taming the Big Data tsunami
    19. The fight for data rights
    20. Flatter organisations
    21. The great deleveraging

    Apart from the fact there’s 21, the twenty minutes I have allocated isn’t going to be enough to cover these. So which topics do I skate over?

    Of course there might be more topics that I’ve missed. I’m open to suggestions.

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