Paul Wallbank – Brilliant Communications

Tag: tablet computers

  • Microsoft’s version three problem

    Microsoft’s version three problem

    Microsoft have released their second generation Surface tablet computers following the less than successful first versions that resulted in the company booking a $900 million write off.

    As always, the new devices boast improved battery life, better screens and more storage, all of which are important when competing against Apple’s iPad and the plethora of Android devices.

    For Microsoft, the stakes are high as the company tries to position itself as devices and services business in the post-PC world where tablet computers are one of the key markets.

    Unfortunately the PC industry’s legacy haunts Microsoft as the market believes it takes the company three attempts to get a product right.

    Microsoft Windows is the best example of this, versions one and two of the graphic operating system* were total and utter dogs. It was only with the arrival of Windows 3.0 that PC users started to migrate from DOS.

    This failure to execute lulled Microsoft’s competitors into a false sense of security, WordPerfect in particular completely flubbed the market’s move to Windows and never recovered which was a large reason for Microsoft Office’s eventual domination of the word processor and productivity suite sector.

    Strangely with Windows another pattern developed once Microsoft came to dominate the market, every second version was a dog – Window 98 was followed by the awful Windows ME which in turn was replaced by probably the most successful OS of all in Windows XP.

    XP, released at the high point of Microsoft’s powers, was followed by the disastrous Vista which was redeemed by Windows 7 that was in turn soiled by the now soon to be abandoned Windows 8.

    The problem for Microsoft is the PC industry model is in decline and the company is no longer a scrappy disrupter but instead a wounded giant wondering how to react to a rapidly changing market.

    In the face of Apple and Google’s domination of the tablet and smartphone markets, taking three cracks to get their tablet right is going to be an expensive and difficult path for Microsoft.

    Steve Ballmer’s place in business history might just depend on this version of the Surface, if it does take three attempts to get Microsoft’s tablet product right then his legacy may not be well judged.

    *Purists will argue that early versions of Windows weren’t operating systems as they sat on top of DOS which did the heavy lifting. They are right.

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  • Mr Ballmer regrets

    Mr Ballmer regrets

    Following the announcement of his pending retirement, Microsoft CEO Ballmer held his first interview for twenty years with ZD Net’s Mary-Jo Foley.

    During the ZD Net interview, Ballmer and Foley ranged over subjects ranging from his possible replacement, reasons for retirement and his greatest highlight during his thirteen year tenure as CEO.

    Foley’s asked Ballmer what was his greatest disappointment as Microsoft CEO and, not surprisingly, he nominated the development of Microsoft Vista.

    I would say probably the thing I regret most is the, what shall I call it, the loopedy-loo that we did that was sort of Longhorn to Vista. I would say that’s probably the thing I regret most. And, you know, there are side effects of that when you tie up a big team to do something that doesn’t prove out to be as valuable.

    Those side effects of Vista’s botched development were felt across the PC industry as the operating system’s overlong development and disappointing performance broke the three year upgrade cycle that underpinned the sector’s business model.

    Unlike the similar debacle eight years earlier with Windows ME where Microsoft’s market position was unchallenged, Vista came along at the time the computer industry itself was being disrupted by smartphones leaving the entire PC industry exposed to a major shift.

    Now Ballmer’s successor will have to deal with the industry’s broken upgrade model along with the post-PC era where desktop and server operating systems are no longer the key to controlling the market. Every option is a challenge to Microsoft’s existing businesses.

    As discussed in Ballmer’s interview with Mary-Jo Foley, Microsoft still sees its future in consumer IT, whether that includes continuing the company’s three screen strategy of supplying Windows on the desktop, tablet and smartphone will be one of the early and critical decisions the next CEO will have to make.

    While Microsoft Vista might have been Steve Ballmer’s biggest mistake as Microsoft CEO, the challenges ahead for the company’s board and management are great, it’s going to take strong leadership for the once dominant software giant to maintain its place in a radically changed market.

    Song of the day – Ms Otis regrets by Kirsty McColl and The Pogues.

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  • Five years of the app store

    Five years of the app store

    It’s been five years that the Apple App Store has been open for business. in that time they’ve revolutionised the smartphone industry, reinvented the tablet computer and had fifty billion downloads.

    While the App Store wasn’t an original idea, plenty of telcos and handset manufacturers, had them, Apple were the first to get the formula right for the iPhone.

    Their success in changing the smartphone industry lead to their dominance of the tablet industry, another sector which had settled incumbents who were disrupted by Apple’s entry into the market.

    It’s notable how in both the smartphone and tablet markets, the established incumbents were struggling with the same business model that Apple got right. This is something other industries should pay attention to.

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  • The PC industry’s search for new directions

    The PC industry’s search for new directions

    All Things D reported over the weekend that Microsoft executives are fretting over a major restructure being planned by CEO Steve Ballmer. This is part of the fundamental changes challenging the entire PC industry.

    Ballmer is dealing with massive changes in Microsoft’s core business as PC sales decline with customers moving to smartphones, tablet computers and cloud computing so finding new markets is a priority for the company’s board and senior management.

    The same problems are facing all the major players in the PC industry and it’s the main reason why Dell is in the throes of a battle to take their business private, what’s fascinating is the different ways these companies are responding to these changes.

    In Dell’s case the company’s looking at becoming “an Enterprise Solutions and Services (ESS) focused business” – essentially copying what IBM did a decade ago in moving from hardware and focusing on consulting and services to large corporations.

    Microsoft on the other hand sees the future in devices and cloud computing with Ballmer telling shareholders last year that becoming a “devices and services company” is the future.

    It’s important to recognize a fundamental shift underway in our business and the areas of technology that we believe will drive the greatest opportunity in the future.

    In Ballmer’s view those opportunities lie in cloud computing services and devices like the Windows Surface tablet computer and the smartphones, products which Dell struggled with during the 2000s.

    These are two very different directions and it illustrates just how the major players in the PC industry are searching for new business models as the old one collapses.

    How many of them successfully make the transition will be for history to examine; it’s easy to see Microsoft surviving given its massive financial reserves and market power, although nothing can be taken for granted as we could have said the same about Kodak twenty years ago.

    Dell on the other hand is far weaker being smaller with a narrower product base and currently has the management distraction of competing buyout offers. Dell’s survival is far from certain.

    Others, like HP, seem to be slipping into obscurity as management flip-flops from one scheme to another. The takeover of EDS as part of HP’s move into enterprise consulting does not seem to have gone well and the company is wallowing.

    What we’re seeing is the rapid disruption of an industry that itself was the disruptor not so long ago. It reminds us that even the corporated giants of today are as vulnerable as the stagecoach companies of yesteryear in the face of rapid change.

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  • Dicing up the mobile web

    Dicing up the mobile web

    Last week we had a series of reports on the changing web from Cisco, IBM and Ericsson along with Mary Meeker’s annual State Of The Internet presentation.

    One thing all the reports agreed on was there is going to be a lot more data pushed around the net and the composition is changing as business and home users adapt to smartphones and tablet computers.

    Cisco’s Visual Networking Index forecast online traffic would triple by 2017 while Ericsson’s Mobility Report predicts mobile internet traffic will grow twelve times by 2018.

    What’s notable in those predictions is the amounts and types of data the different devices use. Cisco breaks down monthly traffic by device;

    • Smartphones 0.6 GB
    • Tablet computers 2.7 GB
    • Laptops and PCs 18.6 GB

    In one way this isn’t surprising as the devices have differing uses and their form factors make it harder to consume more data. Cisco also points out that data consumption also varies with processor power. As PCs are the most powerful devices, it makes sense they would chew through more information.

    Ericsson breaks down data use by application as well as device and that clearly shows the different ways we’re using these devices.

    internet data traffic by mobile device

    Notable in the graph is how file sharing is big on PCs but not on tablets or smartphones while email and social networking take up a bigger chunk of cellphone usage.

    What’s also interesting in Ericsson’s predictions is how data traffic evolves. It’s notable that video is forecast to be the biggest driver of growth.

    ericsson-by-data-traffic

    Both Ericsson’s and Cisco’s predictions tie into Mary Meeker’s State Of The Internet presentation at the D11 Conference last week.

    It’s worth watching Meeker’s presentation just for the way she packs over eighty slides into twenty minutes with a lot of information on how the economy is changing as the internet matures.

    What all of these reports are telling us is that our society and economy are changing as these technologies mature. The business opportunities – and risks – are huge and there isn’t any industry that’s immune to these changes.

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