Denial is a powerful sedative, it allows us to trundle dozily along a well worn patch oblivious to the reality our comfortable world has changed.
Last week’s claim that youth is fed up with the iPhone by Nokia’s Niels Munksgaard – who has the wonderful title of Director of Portfolio, Product Marketing & Sales – is a great example of how far and how long denial can continue while there’s still money to pay executive bonuses.
Canada’s beleaguered Research In Motion, manufacturers of the Blackberry phone, showed the same delusions when they released their Playbook tablet computer with the declaration Amateur Hour Is Over.
The only amateur hour was in the hubristic minds of RIM’s marketing team.
While profits keep flowing big organisation can afford delusions – Google can indulge their social media fantasies while the Adwords rivers of gold continue to flow ever faster and Microsoft can continue to indulge their delusions while their Windows and Office products remain immensely profitable.
Microsoft’s “droidrage” campaign, designed to embarrass Google’s Android mobile phone platform, is part of that delusion; for Microsoft’s campaign to work they have to prove there is a widespread Android malware problem, show their system isn’t prone to the same flaws and – most importantly – have enough product on the market to sell to those disillusioned Google customers.
Such a negative campaign has many fallacies – it assumes there are widespread security problems in Android, that Microsoft will pick up disaffected Google customers and there are enough Microsoft based products to grab those sales.
Probably Microsoft’s biggest problem is the assumption that customers actually care about that stuff – for years Windows dominated its market despite being riddled with computer with security holes and malware.
Microsoft succeeded because their competition was delusional; the best example being WordPerfect claiming graphic systems like Windows were a fad at a time when an inferior Microsoft Word was gobbling up their markets.
By the time WordPerfect realised their error and released a truly dreadful WordPerfect for Windows it was all too late, like a stagecoach company realising the motorcar is here to stay.
The problem for businesses in denial is that reality eventually does bite; plenty of people in the newspaper industry believed their advertising based model was secure and profitable – indeed many of the cosseted managers in that sector still believe it is – which now leaves them struggling in a changed world they thought they could ignore.
Denial among incumbents is a great opportunity for newer, more flexible players; for years mobile phone and tablet computer manufacturers were in denial about the usuability of their product – Apple proved them wrong and now commands the most profitable chunks of those markets.
Being the village blacksmith or a buggy whip maker was a good business to be in at the beginning of the 20th Century. Thirty years later those block boys and saddlemakers who hadn’t made the jump found themselves out of work.
It’s going to be interesting to see will be this century’s buggy whip manufacturers.