microsoft | Paul Wallbank - Communications Professional

Microsoft struggles with in car technologies

Microsoft Windows faces further challenges as it loses market share and revenue in the automotive market

As Microsoft prepare for a major launch at this week’s Mobile World Congress, the news isn’t good for the company’s flagship Windows operating system.

Two Bloomberg reports illustrate the problems; the major story is the company is planning to drop licensing fees for Windows 8.1 while the other, still serious, news is that Ford will be dropping Windows as its in-car operating systems.

Automotive systems are one of the key markets for Microsoft as the company tries to move into markets beyond the stagnating personal computer sector and should the reports be true that Ford is looking at moving to the rival Blackberry owned QNX system then Windows Embedded has taken an embarrassing blow in a key market.

More serious though is Bloomberg’s report that Microsoft plans to cut its licensing fees for Windows installed on cheaper devices.

While not unexpected, this will damage the company’s earnings given the Windows division made up 22% of Microsoft’s earnings last year.

It’s clear that the free Android system is beginning to hurt Microsoft both in the smartphone and personal computer markets.

For Microsoft’s new CEO Satya Nadella, dealing with Windows’ place in the new Microsoft is going to be one of his most pressing challenges and will almost certainly define his first year in the role.

As the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine markets grow, Microsoft is going to have quickly decide if the company wants to compete in the market.

Hitting the eighty percent of needs

Cloud computing has changed the way we expect software to work and changed the entire industry’s philosophy.

“I don’t use ninety percent of what’s in Microsoft Word” has been the complaint of computer users for years as they struggled through the myriad features of box software products.

In the days of floppy disks and CDs, software developers tried to deliver as many features as they could; despite the fact that the ordinary user only needed a core set of functions and that most items on the menus went untouched.

The result was bloated, difficult to use software. The cloud computing model changes this, particularly in business fields like accounting software.

Last week saw a blitz of releases from cloud accounting services with Xero, Intuit and MYOB all making big announcements.

MYOB announced a wide ranging product refresh, Intuit their mobile service and Xero its new board directors that point the direction for its US expansion.

A key part of all the announcement was how the services are all boasting of their partner ecosystems developing add ons that improve users’ functionality.

Once consequence of having an army of developers plugging into the product means that companies don’t have to ship bloated packages that have dozens of features that are irrelevant to each users’ needs.

Xero’s Australian CEO, Chris Ridd, put this well during the week by observing that company aims to “address the basic eighty percent of needs”.

This is the exact opposite of the box software model of the past where vendors would try to pack more features into their products which gave rise to the term bloatware.

Microsoft’s Office package was probably the best example of this massive growth in the product size, with the installation files eventually taking up a full 4.3Gb DVD to deliver something that most people were happy with when WordPerfect 2.0 shipped on three floppy disks.

That change to the software model is a good example of how business practices and methods change as technology evolves; it also illustrates just one of the fundamental changes older software companies are having to deal with as cloud services change their industry.

We can still have all the features we want in a software package, but we’ll just have to connect – and probably pay for the add ons.

Today, we’re more likely to be scrambling to find an add-on rather than complaining about features we don’t need.

Trapped in orbit – the founder’s dilemma

Walking away from a business is not always a simple task as Bill Gates is finding

Earlier this week Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen celebrated his Seattle Hawks winning the Super Bowl while his former business partner, Bill Gates, still struggles to escape the clutches of the software giant they founded forty years ago.

After a long drawn out process, software giant Microsoft has finally chosen its replacement for CEO Steve Ballmer however founder Bill Gates finds himself firmly trapped in the company’s orbit.

Hoodie wearing Satya Nadella‘s ascension to Microsoft CEO was probably the poorest held secret in the tech industry having been openly reported for several weeks.

Nadella has a massive task ahead of him as the industry that’s been so lucrative for Microsoft over the past thirty years evolves to deal with the post-PC era.

How Nadella manages Microsoft’s transition will define his business career and tenure at the top job, it will also determine the company’s position in a marketplace where PCs running Windows are no longer relevant.

The biggest news from Microsoft’s announcement though was that Bill Gates will step down as Chairman of the Board and take a new position as ‘founder and technology advisor’.

Microsoft also announced that Bill Gates, previously Chairman of the Board of Directors, will assume a new role on the Board as Founder and Technology Advisor, and will devote more time to the company, supporting Nadella in shaping technology and product direction. John Thompson, lead independent director for the Board of Directors, will assume the role of Chairman of the Board of Directors and remain an independent director on the Board.

Despite leaving the CEO role over a decade ago, Gates finds himself back in a hands on role at the company.

The value of Bill Gates

It’s questionable what value Gates is going to add in the role of ‘Technology Advisor’ as Microsoft’s markets are very different to those the company was founded in and came to dominate in the 1980s and 90s.

For Nadella, it’s not exactly a vote of confidence from the board in appointing the company’s founder to hover over his shoulder offering helpful advice.

On a personal level this must be disappointing for the founder and former CEO as well in that his mind is on far greater topics such as eliminating malaria through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Trapped by Microsoft’s gravity

Gates’ situation though is a classic example of a business founder who’s never been able to get out of the orbit of their business. Despite their best efforts, they keep being dragged back to give a helping hand.

At least though Gates has at least been able to step away to some degree, many baby boomers with smaller businesses are going to be locked into their companies as GenX or Y entrepreneurs don’t have the funds to pay what the proprietors need to retire.

Those boomer entrepreneurs are going to work in their businesses until either they or their venture is put to rest.

Bill Gates’ dilemma though shows how tough it is for business founders to escape the gravitational pull of their creations, even when it’s as big a business as Microsoft.

Paul Allen showed how to step away from a business and is enjoying life, Bill Gates’ story though is much more typical for business founders trapped in the enterprises they built.

Microsoft edges towards the post PC era and the end of Windows

Life was good for Microsoft Windows until the iPad arrived, now it’s becoming irrelevant to the business.

Microsoft’s evolution to the post PC era has been a fascination of this blog for several years now as the company’s once flagship Windows becomes irrelevant in a world dominated by smartphones and tablet computers.

The launch of Windows 8 and the Surface tablet were the great hope for the company, but it appears the business model that built Microsoft into one of the world’s biggest companies is doomed. Microsoft is shifting to the post-PC era where Windows has little role.

Yesterday’s financial results emphasised the shift as the consumer licensing business fell 6% year against last years revenues while the company’s overall revenues rose 14% – the old consumer Windows business is dying.

This is illustrated in the company’s quarterly report, where the business units that delivered the growth were all in non-Windows areas.

SQL Server continued to gain market share with revenue growing double-digits
System Center showed continued strength with double-digit revenue growth
Commercial cloud services revenue more than doubled
Office 365 commercial seats and Azure customers both grew triple-digits.

Drilling down into the numbers the trend against Windows is even more stark, here’s a chart of the performance of the division over the last ten years.

Microsoft Windows division financial performance

As we see, life was good for Microsoft Windows until the iPad arrived.

Following Apple’s proof that tablet computers could deliver what business and home customers wanted from a portable device, Windows’ revenue stagnated and now income and margins are falling.

The devices and services strategy of outgoing CEO Steve Ballmer recognises is a reflection of how Windows is becoming irrelevant to the business.

It’s hard to see where Microsoft now goes with Windows, the product still remains a key part of the business with 22% of revenues – although that’s down from 27% last year – and its hard to see a buyer parting with the hundreds of billions the division would be worth as a stand alone business.

For Steve Ballmer’s successor as Microsoft CEO dealing with the Windows problem will be one of many big issues they’ll have to deal with, the future of the once iconic product though won’t define the future of the business.

Microsoft and the zero day Tiff

The Windows TIFF exploit is a good reason for being careful with your email attachments.

One of the most dangerous things in computer malware is the Zero Day Exploit where an error in a program is used by the bad guys before it can the hole in software can be fixed.

A particularly irritating zero day exploit is the TIFF bug in Windows systems where users using Microsoft products can be fooled into opening what appears to be an image file but what turns out to be something more malicious.

Even more irritating with this bug is that Microsoft aren’t going to fix the problem in Windows XP systems until January’s patch Tuesday which means many people will be susceptible to this problem for nearly two months.

Zero day exploits are a good reason why every computer user needs to have an up to date virus checker and to take basic precautions before surfing the web or downloading email.

For Windows users it might be worthwhile taking extra care with email attachments for the next few weeks.

Microsoft’s devices and services strategy starts taking shape with the Surface tablet

Does the Microsoft Surface show the company is starting to execute Steve Ballmer’s device and services strategy?

Microsoft’s latest version of their Surface tablet computer is the company’s first attempt at executing Steve Ballmer’s device and services strategy. If the company succeeds, there are some interesting implications for the tablet computer market.

Currently Microsoft is on a worldwide PR campaign to promote their latest range of Surface tablet computers. Last week during the Sydney leg of their tour I had the opportunity for a hands on demonstration of the new devices with Jack Cowett of the product’s marketing team.

The Surface itself is an interesting device with some major upgrades and changes as Microsoft begins to understand the tablet market with the device having more memory, better processors and battery life – although the lack of a cellular version is going to hinder its adoption by the consumer and small business markets.

Devices and services

It’s in the device’s integration with Microsoft’s cloud and communication services where the long term vision, and real story behind the Surface lies.

Most obvious is the bundling of services with purchasers of a Microsoft Surface 2 or Surface Pro getting 200Gb of Sky Drive storage and a year’s free international calls included with the device.

It’s an early taste of how Microsoft can combine services and devices that leverage off their existing position in the marketplace.

While these incentives may not be enough to convince customers that the Windows systems are a better buy than Android or Apple devices, integrating these cloud services makes the computers more powerful devices.

Keyboards as blades

Equally interesting with the Surface, is Microsoft’s devices play with the range of Surface covers that the company is informally calling ‘blades’ – an unfortunate choice of name which will confuse conversations with many IT managers.

Blade covers for Microsoft surface tablets

These covers dispense with the usual keyboard electronic layout with an underlying layout featuring a 1024 sensor pad that give the covers more potential than just being keyboards.

As part of the Microsoft marketing push to show this aspect off, the company has released a blade cover with a sound mixer layout and seeded the devices with various DJs under the banner of the Remix Project.

While the blade covers have applications as sound mixers and keyboards, the number and flexible nature of the 1080 built in sensors will see their application in other areas.

The way businesses have used tablet computers has taken manufacturers by surprise as Google’s Eric Schmidt told last week’s Gartner conference and Microsoft’s devices open up more industrial applications.

Already the medical industry is applying Windows based tablets as Microsoft are proud to show off.

Should third party developers be able to develop their own skins for Surface blade covers then Microsoft may have a killer industrial device that plugs into existing Windows based networks.

Added to Microsoft’s opportunity is the possibility of plugging Surface devices into the internet of everything giving business users direct access to the machines in their organisation.

Should Microsoft be able to capture a slice of these markets, it may well be a pointer for the company’s future in a post-PC world.

Regardless of how well Microsoft do with the internet of everything, the latest range of Surface tablets and accessories shows how the company is executing its strategy of becoming a devices and services company.

Building a business culture

Culture matters in an organisation. While a positive culture doesn’t guarantee success, it does make it more likely a company will survive its founders.

“How can you create a great organisation of people and be that mean a person?” Asks funds manager Julian Robertson about Apple founder Steve Jobs.

Robertson, who based the decision to sell his Apple shares on the details in Walter Isaacson’s biography of Steve Jobs, was largely ridiculed for his decision but the veteran investor has a very good point.

A company’s culture develops from the top – if the senior management are paranoid, rogues or thieves then those attributes will eventually percolate through the company.

The Tyco Lesson

During the 1990s I had the unfortunate experience of working for Tyco International at the time it was led by Dennis Kozlowski, a man listed by Time Magazine as one of the ten most crooked CEOs of all time, senior management’s attitude of treating the company’s funds as their own piggy bank was copied throughout the organisation.

Tyco suffered badly during that period and subsequent management has had to work hard to undo the influence of Kozlowski and his cronies’ poor leadership.

One organisation I’ve watched closely over the last few years has been Australia’s NBNCo, the state owned company set up to build the nation’s National Broadband Network.

In under four years of operation the company has developed a dysfunctional management culture that saw the project miss its targets by over 70%.

For the NBN, a hands off attitude by senior management allowed bureaucratic silos to develop in a relatively small and young organisation. Those silos then started perpetuating bad habits as managers hired their friends and ignored good management processes. A lack of process and management accountability have been the main reasons the company has failed to meet its targets.

Apple’s challenge

In Apple’s case, Jobs created a culture of fear and secrecy with the company going as far as creating its own secret police designed to intimidate staff. The entire company was beholden to, and evolved around, one man’s vision, ego and quirks.

While Jobs was ahead of the game, all was good for Apple shareholders but the risk was always that Jobs would make a major mistake or leave the company. It turned out to be the latter when Jobs passed away.

As with any company built in the image of its founder, Apple now struggles to adapting to life without Steve Jobs and his successors have to reinvent the company’s culture around a more collegiate management structure than an often not-so-benign dictatorship.

Microsoft are facing a similar transition as Steve Ballmer leaves the company. Like Apple, Microsoft is an immensely profitable facing a changing market at the very time they are transitioning to a new generation of leaders.

Leaders such as Steve Cook at Apple and Ballmer’s successors at Microsoft have a massive task in changing their company’s culture as they try to undo a generation of management habits and this is why Robertson’s reasoning about selling his stake makes sense.

Culture matters in an organisation. While a positive culture doesn’t guarantee success, it does make it more likely a company will survive its founders.

Does Bill Gates leaving Microsoft mark the end of the PC era?

Bill Gates is the last of the PC industry pioneers, does his retirement from Microsoft mark the end of the desktop era?

After Steve Ballmer’s announced retirement from Microsoft it was clear that the changing of guard was going to happen at Microsoft as Bill Gate’s last trusted lieutenant left a management position.

Now Reuters reports that some of Microsoft’s shareholders are lobbying for Gates himself to leave the board.

If that happens it would probably be the formal end of the PC era as Gates is the last of the pioneers of the desktop computer industry to still have a major role following Ballmer’s retirement and Steve Jobs’ passing.

Who will win the race for wearable computers?

The race for computers that work in glasses is hotting up and there’s no guarantee Google will be the winner.

The news that wearable technology company Recon has secured funding from Intel and shipped fifty thousand devices reminds us that it’s not just Google who are in the market developing glasses that work as computers.

Other companies competing with Google include Glass Up, an Italian startup that’s teamed with Australian company Nubis to provide a wearable device that’s controlled by a smart phone app.

It’s tempting to think that the battle for wearable technology will be won by Google as they are biggest and best funded company, but history shows us size and incumbency don’t always guarantee success.

Google themselves have failed many times when they’ve tried to enter new markets, regardless of the money and resources they’ve thrown at the market.

The best recent example of this is Microsoft’s forays into smartphones and tablet computers during the Windows XP period – A decade ago it was obvious to everyone that Windows based phones and tablets would dominate those markets.

As it turned out the clunky and awkward to use devices scared customers away and it was Apple and Steve Jobs who ended up being the dominant players.

So it may well be that a company we’ve written off – maybe Microsoft – who might end up being the leader in wearable computers, although it’s more likely an upstart like Recon or Glass Up will eventually be the leader.

It may even be that glasses don’t work out as wearable computers at all.

Microsoft’s version three problem

Echoes of the old computer industry haunt Microsoft in the post PC world

Microsoft have released their second generation Surface tablet computers following the less than successful first versions that resulted in the company booking a $900 million write off.

As always, the new devices boast improved battery life, better screens and more storage, all of which are important when competing against Apple’s iPad and the plethora of Android devices.

For Microsoft, the stakes are high as the company tries to position itself as devices and services business in the post-PC world where tablet computers are one of the key markets.

Unfortunately the PC industry’s legacy haunts Microsoft as the market believes it takes the company three attempts to get a product right.

Microsoft Windows is the best example of this, versions one and two of the graphic operating system* were total and utter dogs. It was only with the arrival of Windows 3.0 that PC users started to migrate from DOS.

This failure to execute lulled Microsoft’s competitors into a false sense of security, WordPerfect in particular completely flubbed the market’s move to Windows and never recovered which was a large reason for Microsoft Office’s eventual domination of the word processor and productivity suite sector.

Strangely with Windows another pattern developed once Microsoft came to dominate the market, every second version was a dog – Window 98 was followed by the awful Windows ME which in turn was replaced by probably the most successful OS of all in Windows XP.

XP, released at the high point of Microsoft’s powers, was followed by the disastrous Vista which was redeemed by Windows 7 that was in turn soiled by the now soon to be abandoned Windows 8.

The problem for Microsoft is the PC industry model is in decline and the company is no longer a scrappy disrupter but instead a wounded giant wondering how to react to a rapidly changing market.

In the face of Apple and Google’s domination of the tablet and smartphone markets, taking three cracks to get their tablet right is going to be an expensive and difficult path for Microsoft.

Steve Ballmer’s place in business history might just depend on this version of the Surface, if it does take three attempts to get Microsoft’s tablet product right then his legacy may not be well judged.

*Purists will argue that early versions of Windows weren’t operating systems as they sat on top of DOS which did the heavy lifting. They are right.

Microsoft’s continued evolution

Microsoft are evolving to a changed market, but can they evolve quickly enough to beat their competitors?

Today’s investor briefing by software giant Microsoft shows the company’s evolution as their markets shift.

Microsoft Chief Operating Officer Kevin Turner broke out the key numbers for the company’s revenues which illustrate just how the company’s business model is changing.

Over half of Microsoft’s revenues are coming from enterprise customers and of the product lines, Office unit makes up just under a third, Server and Tools slightly more than a quarter while Windows has fallen to 25 percent.

Despite the decline in Widows’ revenues, there’s no doubt about Microsoft’s determination to drive the PC upgrade cycle through the retirement of Windows XP as Turner explained.

We have a giant XP install base. But guess what? We’ve made so much progress on that XP install base. It’s down to 21 percent worldwide, and we have plans to get that number to 13 percent by April when the end-of-life of XP happens.

A big part of the change is the shift to the cloud with Turner claiming two hundred percent growth in Microsoft’s Azure services.

Despite the change in Microsoft’s focus, the threats remain with Apple releasing both iOS7 and their new range of iPhones along with Google making their QuickOffice mobile app free to iOS and Android users.

While Microsoft are steering their ship around, the incumbents in other sectors are protecting their positions. In an evolving world, survival is not guaranteed.

Intel and the upgrade cycle

Can the upgrade cycle save Microsoft and Intel as the computer market moves against the once dominant duo?

Once dominant PC industry duo Microsoft and Intel have had their positions shaken with the rise of cloud computing and smartphones. Can the PC upgrade cycle help them reclaim their fortunes?

In the early days of the PC industry, chips mattered. Twenty years ago the release of the Intel 486 CPU was big news and careers rose or fell depending on whether an IT manager chose DX-33 or SX-66 chips for the company’s fleet of desktops.

Today few people care enough to get passionate about what’s driving their smartphone or tablet computer.

Intel, who are currently promoting their new range of Central Processing Units, and Microsoft are in an interesting position as their traditional dominance in server, desktop and laptop computers is being challenged by the rise of smartphones and tablet devices.

For most of the 1990s and 2000s the two companies dominated the PC market so completely that the generic term for the sector was ‘Wintel’ – the combination of Windows and Intel.

A core part of the old Wintel business model was the four year upgrade cycle, that most computers would be replaced every three to five years giving Microsoft, Intel and the rest of the IT industry a ready made market for new equipment.

That business model was broken by Microsoft’s disastrous Vista operating system and never recovered as non Wintel portable devices and cloud computing services took away the need to upgrade a server, desktop or laptop computer every four years.

For Intel, matters weren’t helped by their powerful but energy hungry chips not being suitable for tablet computers and smartphones which further eroded their sales as the market moved to portable devices.

Despite those changes to the marketplace, Intel continue to focus on that four year cycle, at their media lunch in Sydney yesterday they emphasised the costs of running older technology.

They do have a point with their claims that servers older than four years deliver four percent of the computing power but consume 65% of the energy, making those antiquated systems far less efficient than newer equipment.

Unfortunately for Intel many businesses will be looking at outsourcing their servers to the cloud when the next technology refresh comes along, so the energy and efficiency arguments are a different matter.

On the desktop, things are somewhat different as most workers still prefer to work at a PC and Intel do have a case for upgrading both business and home systems.

Probably the biggest opportunity will be Microsoft’s pending retirement of Windows XP which will see a wave of business and home users who’ve been content with decade old computers looking at moving off systems that are no longer supported.

Another feature going for Intel and Microsoft are newer computer technologies such as touchscreens and Intel’s own wireless display technology, branded as Wi-Di, which older systems can’t support.

Whether this is enough to entice technology addled consumers and businesses across to new systems remains to be seen, but it’s a challenge for both Microsoft and Intel to reclaim their once dominant market positions.