Paul Wallbank – Brilliant Communications

Tag: tablets

  • Changing technology

    Changing technology

    Last night’s ABC Nightlife program showed how the tech industry has changed in the last five years.

    In 2009 the bulk of the conversation would have been about personal computers, laptops and viruses.

    Last night, malware is still an important topic but almost all of last night’s listener questions were around smartphones and Tony’s questions were on social media.

    That social media and smartphones were the main topics and personal computers — and Windows — were barely mentioned show just how the computer industry has shifted.

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  • Microsoft’s continued evolution

    Microsoft’s continued evolution

    Today’s investor briefing by software giant Microsoft shows the company’s evolution as their markets shift.

    Microsoft Chief Operating Officer Kevin Turner broke out the key numbers for the company’s revenues which illustrate just how the company’s business model is changing.

    Over half of Microsoft’s revenues are coming  from enterprise customers and of the product lines, Office unit makes up just under a third, Server and Tools slightly more than a quarter while Windows has fallen to 25 percent.

    Despite the decline in Widows’ revenues, there’s no doubt about Microsoft’s determination to drive the PC upgrade cycle through the retirement of Windows XP as Turner explained.

    We have a giant XP install base. But guess what? We’ve made so much progress on that XP install base. It’s down to 21 percent worldwide, and we have plans to get that number to 13 percent by April when the end-of-life of XP happens.

    A big part of the change is the shift to the cloud with Turner claiming two hundred percent growth in Microsoft’s Azure services.

    Despite the change in Microsoft’s focus, the threats remain with Apple releasing both iOS7 and their new range of iPhones along with Google making their QuickOffice mobile app free to iOS and Android users.

    While Microsoft are steering their ship around, the incumbents in other sectors are protecting their positions. In an evolving world, survival is not guaranteed.

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  • Intel and the upgrade cycle

    Intel and the upgrade cycle

    Once dominant PC industry duo Microsoft and Intel have had their positions shaken with the rise of cloud computing and smartphones. Can the PC upgrade cycle help them reclaim their fortunes?

    In the early days of the PC industry, chips mattered. Twenty years ago the release of the Intel 486 CPU was big news and careers rose or fell depending on whether an IT manager chose DX-33 or SX-66 chips for the company’s fleet of desktops.

    Today few people care enough to get passionate about what’s driving their smartphone or tablet computer.

    Intel, who are currently promoting their new range of Central Processing Units, and Microsoft are in an interesting position as their traditional dominance in server, desktop and laptop computers is being challenged by the rise of smartphones and tablet devices.

    For most of the 1990s and 2000s the two companies dominated the PC market so completely that the generic term for the sector was ‘Wintel’ – the combination of Windows and Intel.

    A core part of the old Wintel business model was the four year upgrade cycle, that most computers would be replaced every three to five years giving Microsoft, Intel and the rest of the IT industry a ready made market for new equipment.

    That business model was broken by Microsoft’s disastrous Vista operating system and never recovered as non Wintel portable devices and cloud computing services took away the need to upgrade a server, desktop or laptop computer every four years.

    For Intel, matters weren’t helped by their powerful but energy hungry chips not being suitable for tablet computers and smartphones which further eroded their sales as the market moved to portable devices.

    Despite those changes to the marketplace, Intel continue to focus on that four year cycle, at their media lunch in Sydney yesterday they emphasised the costs of running older technology.

    They do have a point with their claims that servers older than four years deliver four percent of the computing power but consume 65% of the energy, making those antiquated systems far less efficient than newer equipment.

    Unfortunately for Intel many businesses will be looking at outsourcing their servers to the cloud when the next technology refresh comes along, so the energy and efficiency arguments are a different matter.

    On the desktop, things are somewhat different as most workers still prefer to work at a PC and Intel do have a case for upgrading both business and home systems.

    Probably the biggest opportunity will be Microsoft’s pending retirement of Windows XP which will see a wave of business and home users who’ve been content with decade old computers looking at moving off systems that are no longer supported.

    Another feature going for Intel and Microsoft are newer computer technologies such as touchscreens and Intel’s own wireless display technology, branded as Wi-Di, which older systems can’t support.

    Whether this is enough to entice technology addled consumers and businesses across to new systems remains to be seen, but it’s a challenge for both Microsoft and Intel to reclaim their once dominant market positions.

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  • The Five Stages of abandoning a product

    The Five Stages of abandoning a product

    Killing a technology product is never a clean process, as Google well know. Microsoft show the way to deal with a failed project and we’re seeing their five stages of abandoning a product as they prepare to retire Windows 8.

    The stages of Microsoft are abandoning a product are well known – the failure of Microsoft Vista is the best example, but not the only one.

    As Microsoft smooths Window 8’s pillow and prepares for its imminent demise we can see the process at work.

    Denial

    At first the company denies there is a problem, the flashy advertising campaigns are boosted and the various ‘in the camp’ commentators get informal briefings from company evangelists to fuel their snarky columns about people getting Microsoft’s latest product all wrong.

    This usually goes on for around six months until the market feedback that the product is dog becomes overwhelming – usually this happens at the same time the first reliable sales figures start appearing.

    Anger

    As the consensus in the broader community becomes settled that the new product isn’t good, the company’s tame commentators turn nasty and lash out at the critics for ‘misrepresenting’ the new product.

    This is usually a touchy period for Microsoft and other vendors as they can’t risk being too aggressive but they have to allow their allies to both let off steam and try to recover the credibility they lost in hyping what’s clearly been a market failure.

    Bargaining

    Once it’s clear the perceived wisdom that the product isn’t very good isn’t going to be shaken, the vendor comes out with special offers and pricing changes to try and coax users over to the new service.

    With Windows 8 Microsoft tried something unusual, rather than cutting prices, Microsoft announced they would increase the cost of Windows 8.

    The idea was probably to panic people into buying the product and giving Microsoft a revenue and market share bounce for the quarter.

    It didn’t work – the consensus that Windows 7 is a better product meant people stayed away.

    Depression

    As the realisation that pricing tweaks and promotional stunts won’t work sends the company, and its supporters, into a funk.

    For experienced industry watchers, the silence around a product that’s been heavily hyped and defended for the previous year or two is a good indication that the next version is being accelerated.

    Acceptance

    Eventually the vendor accepts the product has failed and starts working on its own exit strategy – hopefully one that doesn’t see too many executives sacked.

    With Microsoft’s this process starts with a quiet announcement that the replacement version of Windows is on the way, in this case Windows Blue.

    At the same time, the tame commentators start talking about ‘leaks’ of the wonderful new system that is in the pipeline. Early beta versions of the new product start popping up in developers’ forums and file sharing sites.

    Eventually you get stories like this one that appeared in The Verge yesterday – Windows Blue leaks online and we can be sure the Microsoft public relations machine has subtly moved onto the next version.

    Vale Windows 8

    So Windows 8 is coming to an early end. In one way this is a shame as it was a brave gamble by Steve Ballmer and his team to solve the ‘three screen’ problem.

    Computer users today are using three or more screens or devices – a desktop, a smartphone and a TV or tablet computer.

    Microsoft were hoping they could develop a system that unified all these platforms and gave users a common experience regardless of what they were using.

    It appears to have failed, probably because the different devices don’t have the same user experience so a keyboard based system doesn’t work on a touchscreen while a touch based system sucks really badly on a desktop or laptop computer – which is Windows 8’s real problem.

    Unrealistic expectations

    Another problem for Microsoft were the unrealistic expectations that Window 8 would halt the slide of personal computer sales.

    PC manufacturers have been baffled by the rise of smartphones and tablet computers – vendors like Dell, HP and Acer have miserably in moving into the new product lines and they hoped that Microsoft could help arrest their market declines.

    This was asking too much of Windows 8 and was never really likely.

    So the cycle begins again with Windows Blue, the question is whether it will be the last version of Windows as we move further in the post-PC era.

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  • Apple’s line in the sand

    Apple’s line in the sand

    The comprehensive refresh of Apple’s product lines announced by CEO Tim Cook this morning is a clear warning to Google and Microsoft that the market leader in the post-PC computer marketplace is not going away.

    With both Google and Microsoft having a major product releases over the next week, the pressure is now on both companies to match Apple’s announcements and product range.

    For Microsoft, the stakes are now substantially higher for their Windows Surface tablets. The Fourth Generation iPad and iPad Mini (or is that iPod Maxi?) are going to be the benchmarks the Redmond tablet PCs will be measured against.

    An interesting part of the Apple presentation was marketing chief Phil Schiller trash talking the Android competitors with a side-by-side comparison between the iPad and the Nexus.

    These comparisons are becoming a hallmark of Schiller’s marketing in the post Steve Jobs Apple, whether this is good or bad remains to be seen, but it is a difference compared to the old boss’ way of doing things. Although Jobs wasn’t adverse to poking fun at some of Microsoft’s confusing habits.

    For geeks, and those who like shiny things that go “beep”, it’s an exciting week and Apple have shown why they are masters at controlling the tech media.

    It’s now up to Google and Microsoft to see if they can match Cook’s announcements and meet Apple’s price points.

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