Category: Internet

The IT industry’s damaged business models

Can the Information Technology industry deal with a radically changed business environment?

JT Wang, Chairman of personal computer manufacturer Acer believes the release of Windows 8, Microsoft’s next operating system, will see a resurgence of sales for Windows based computers. Market trends suggest those hopes are in vain.

Right now the Personal Computer market can be roughly split into two camps; those happily running Windows XP who have no need to upgrade and those who are delighted with Windows 7 who have no need to upgrade.

Short of their computers breaking down, neither group have any good reasons to change to the new operating system as, unlike Windows 3.1, 95 or XP, there is no new technology breakthrough or advance to warrant making the jump.

To make things worse for the PC manufacturers the rise of cloud computing services extends the life of older Windows XP systems and eliminates the biggest driver of new computer purchases in businesses – the software upgrade.

During the PC era one of the banes of business owners were enforced software upgrades where vendors would release a new version of a program every year or two and withdraw support for the older editions.

Frequently the newer software would require the latest hardware, forcing the business into an expensive and disruptive upgrade of all their IT systems.

Today, software companies following the forced upgrade model are finding customers have viable cloud alternatives which destroys the revenue stream behind those frequent releases.

When a customer moves to a cloud service, they also delay buying new desktop or server hardware which is partly driving the steady increase in the age of business computers.

For computer manufacturers the release of Windows 8 could actually be bad news as customers will probably postpone system upgrades until the first service pack of the new operating system is released.

Even if Windows 8 does deliver increased sales as JT Wang hopes, the trend of steadily falling PC prices as smartphones and tablet computers take market share is inevitable.

The PC industry in both laptops and desktops has been a commodity industry for some years and any hope of establishing premium pricing from tablet computers has been dashed by the iPad’s competitive price points.

Regardless of the hopes of the IT industry’s leaders, both the hardware and software sectors are under a lot of stress. It will be interesting to see who adapts to today’s market.

 

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Technology’s magic pills

How a social media or cloud computing ointment won’t solve your business problems

As railways rolled out across the US in the mid 19th Century, the snake oil merchants selling dubious medicines weren’t far behind.

Communities that had never before seen things that were taken for granted in the big cities were easily fooled by miracle treatments that would fix all their ills. By the time the locals discovered the scam, the snake oil salesman and his shills would be well out of town.

Technological change always brings out hype and over the last few decades we’ve seen a similar thing happen with the tech industries, as products and services were sold on the back of claims that could be described as ambitious, if not outrageous.

The Y2K bug was a good example of this as planes were going to fall from the sky and dams collapse if we didn’t hire an expensive consulting firm or buy a widget that would remind our computers they were now in the 21st Century.

A similar thing is at work with Internet names, where the current push to sell Top Level Domains – a bargain with their $385,000 application fee – is being touted as the fix to everything that is wrong with web addresses.

With digital snake oil it’s interesting how often big organisations sometimes act like 19th Century American sharecroppers – all too often we seen ministers and CEOs announce an outsourcing deal that will save taxpayers or shareholders millions only to later find the only winner was the consulting firm that sold the idea.

A similar trend is at work in the PR industry, Sky News presenter John Kerrison has an entertaining look on his personal website on how social media is being sold as an easy fix for a business with far more fundamental problems.

The sad thing is that there are real benefits behind the grandiose claims; Y2K was a real problem, money can be saved through intelligent outsourcing and social media is a great PR tool.

Eventually hype backfires, consumers are rightly dubious about anything that has the slightest hint of PR spin while the IT sector is viewed with well-earned suspicion by business proprietors, executives and managers.

A good example of this was last week’s Digital Readiness report from Optus that found businesses aren’t particularly interested in cloud services. This mirrors similar studies by Sensis, MYOB and MelbourneIT which all find organisations aren’t too fussed about the online world in general.

The danger with this is there is fundamental shift happening in society and technologies like websites, social media and cloud computing  – just like the railroads in the 19th Century – are part of those changes which businesses need to understand.

In an era where snake oil is a commodity there are two challenges for business people; the first is not to be perceived as one of the charlatans and the second is to see the miracle cures for what they are.

Probably the best tool for dealing with the digital snake oil merchants is turn on your own, old-fashioned bullshit detector and treat the shills with the suspicion they deserve.

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Using free services

What traps are there when using free online services

The lure of free is attractive – free web hosting, free software or the free lunch always grabs our attention.

Deep down though we know there’s really no such thing as a free lunch and the same is true with all the other free deals, there’s always a cost of some sort.

Often the definition of free can be a problem; there’s the social media model of free that harvests your personal data, the Silicon Valley version that hopes a big company will buy the service, the earnest work of volunteers and the freemium marketing model.

Most computer users have used the freemium model, this is where the business gives away a basic free version in the hope of encouraging enough customers to the paid premium version that has support and additional features. Common examples are AVG Free Antivirus, Google Apps and Mailchimp’s Forever Free plan.

All of the freemium services come with a catch, AVG’s free software is only licensed for home use ­– so no using the free version on your office computer – while Google Apps only supports ten unpaid users and if you have more than 2,000 people on your mailing list then Mailchimp is no longer free.

Developing a free product to raise your profile is a common way for entrepreneurs to enter markets and establish a reputation. This is particularly common in the software and web design industries where coders and designers offer free applications or templates to build their portfolios.

These products developed by entrepreneurial designers and programmers are often great, but as there is the risk the developer will lose interest as their business evolves. The WordPress Guy, Tony Constantino, warns “when a free theme stops being supported in 6months you will get left behind”

By far the most lucrative free model to date has been the advertising supported business. This is nothing new as commercial radio and television stations have had this model for nearly a century, but Google have taken this online with their advertising platform that funds their search tools and many other free services.

A variation on the advertising supported model is the data mining carried out by social media sites like Facebook and LinkedIn. This isn’t as transparent and may be a problem for business users who don’t want to share their client details with an internet service.

Increasingly the free services are based around the Silicon Valley model of a deep pocketed venture capital company funding a business with the aim of building the customer base through offering freebies services with the aim of selling to a trade buyer.

The danger with the Silicon Valley VC model is its instability as most companies shut down without finding a buyer. Even when they do find someone to buy the venture the service often doesn’t last as we saw when the once popular free hosting service Geocities was shut down by Yahoo! in 2009.

Despite the traps free can be good for your business but you should understand the terms, conditions and hidden costs that come with the products. Often you’ll find paying for a product delivers a much more functional and better service that requires less of your time.

One service that might help businesses choose the right free or trial online services is Cheapstart, that compares the various services available for entrepreneurs starting out.

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Why small businesses aren’t using cloud computing

The IT industry needs to understand cloud services and small business

As part of their push into online applications, telecommunications company Optus yesterday released their Digital Ready report examining Australian small business’ use of cloud computing services.

One of the notable results is that only four percent of small business proprietors claim to use cloud computing services and 59% are unsure of what exactly cloud computing is.

Those results are surprisingly poor and indicate businesses don’t see the benefit or value in cloud computing services. There seems to be a number of factors driving this.

Misunderstanding cloud computing

That over 90% of small business owners claim not to be using cloud computing indicates many simply don’t know what these services are. If asked most would admit to using Facebook, web mail or some other online or social media platform that runs on cloud computing.

That’s an education issue and if anything is a criticism of those of us – including myself – who are trying to explain the concept. We can do better as an industry.

Security

Many businesses, big and small, misunderstand technology security risks and have an inflated view of how secure their own desktop, networks and servers are. In many ways the security of cloud services is better than most small business IT systems.

Where the security argument falls down is in the hyperbole of many IT security vendors – every month we hear breathless reports, repeated by gullible technology journalists, of how smartphones, social media or Apple Macs are going to be struck down by a new wave of viruses and each time the “threat” quietly fades away into obscurity.

As long as hysterical fear stories about the security of smartphones and cloud services circulate in the media, it’s understandable that small business owners will be wary of trusting technologies they don’t fully understand.

Sunk costs

Many established businesses have sunk costs in existing software and hardware. For proprietors or managers to justify moving a new service, whether it’s on the cloud or not, there has to be a clear financial benefit in doing so.

Terms of Service risk

Cloud services – whether free or paid – come with a set of terms and conditions. Online Payment, social media and other cloud computing services have shown themselves to be quick in shutting down business accounts without warning, any due process or an accesible way to resolve disputes.

Quite rightly, many business owners are wary of risking key processes or data to services that might cut them off without notice and who often lack a customer service culture.

The reluctant advisors

Business IT consultants struggle with cloud services. Cloud services are a threat to those used to making money from selling servers, software and desktop computers.

For the more far sighted consultants, the thin margins offered by cloud services mean they have to rely on fees for service. If something goes wrong, the client’s first call will be to the trusted advisor and not to the service providers’ helpdesks.

This is a headache too far for many consultants as they know they’ll probably not get paid for the time spent sifting the truth in a blizzard of vendor finger pointing. It’s far less risk and more profitable to recommend a server and desktop solution.

Is cloud computing important?

For businesses, the economics of cloud computing is changing industry dynamics. With lower capital costs, it makes enterprises more flexible and responsive to changing markets.

Cloud services are critical to businesses – for established companies they’ll find themselves losing out if they don’t at least consider the advantages and choose the right online tools.

The onus right now though is on cloud computing vendors to tell their stories better and demonstrate why they can be trusted with key business processes and valuable data.

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ABC Nightlife: The next wave of smartphones

Paul Wallbank joined Rod Quinn to look at where mobile phones are going.

The world of mobile phones is getting busy again as a whole new range of smartphones appear. Paul Wallbank joined Rod Quinn for ABC Nightlife on October 20 to discuss what the new smartphone wars mean for home and business users.

We’ll be going to air from 10pm, Eastern Australian time across Australia on ABC Local Radio’s Nightlife to look at the following questions;

  • Why were people disappointed with Apple’s iPhone 4S that was released a few weeks ago?
  • The big competition are the Google Android phones, what are they doing?
  • What’s happened to Nokia? They seemed to have lost their domination.
  • Microsoft were the other big player, what are they doing?
  • How are the smartphones changing business?
  • Shopping centres seem to be jumping on board with various social media checkins. What are those?
  • There’s been a push to online payments, how are the smartphones affecting this?
  • Are smartphones going to be the big buy for Christmas?
  • What are the best plans for consumers and business?
  • How do people deal with telco disputes?

The podcast from the program is available from at Nightlife website, and some of the information we mentioned can be found here;

Dealing with Telco complaints

We’ll be adding more resources in the next few days, the next ABC Nightlife spot is on 23 November and our events page will have more details. If you have any suggestions for future programs or comments on the last show, please let us know as we love your feedback.

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The mobile payments revolution

Paying bills through a smartphone is going to radically change how we do business

Ten years ago when I was running a computer support business we spent a lot of time trying to find an mobile payment service for our on-site technicians to process payments.

At the time there were plenty of options but they were all expensive, asking 6% in merchant fees at a time when our bank merchant facility charged us 2.75% to accept Mastercard, Visa and Bankcard. Interestingly, the cut the mobile providers wanted to take which was the same commission as American Express and Diners Club.

We’d long before decided Diners and Amex were too expensive and it was easy to make the same decision about mobile payments. The technicians were given a manual card swipe to carry around and they phoned through authorisations. It was messy and time consuming but a lot cheaper than the then high tech alternatives.

Given that history, I was keen to get along to the Australian Information Industry Association’s “Mobile Payments – Cooperate, Collaborate, or Abdicate” breakfast panel held in Sydney last week to see what has changed in the mobile payments space.

The rise of smartphones – and the developing SoLoMo trend among consumers which brings together social, local and mobile technologies – should have meant the era of online payments should have arrived and it’s puzzling why it hasn’t happened.

It isn’t for a shortage of operators; one of the panel members, Oliver Weidlich of Sydney’s Mobile Experience mentioned a number of the services such as Square, developed by one of Twitter’s founders that are changing mobile payment overseas.

Interestingly it was the audience questions that gave the answers to why online payments haven’t taken off in Australia. The key question from the floor was “which authority handles disputes should a phone be lost or stolen”.

As a customer, one hopes it’s the bank that takes responsibility as the idea of a telco – particularly their mobile phone divisions with their attitude towards billing customers – having control over your credit card or bank account would make most consumers’ blood run cold.

The point was well made though as it saw the panel’s bank, telco and credit card representatives all ruminating over the question of ‘who owns the customer’.

Oddly, while they argue about whose property the customer is, all of them may lose out. While services like Square and built in payment features on social media and mobile apps such as Foursquare or Red Laser may take a slice of the market, there is a bigger competitor already making huge inroads.

The day before the AIIA event, Internet payment giant PayPal announced a series of deals with various group buying sites and online applications. Their press release pointed out PayPal’s mobile payments, or mCommerce as they call it, is growing at over 400% a year

While it might not be correct to say PayPal were the elephant in the room at the online payments breakfast, it isn’t unfair to say Big Ears was just outside scoffing the morning tea while the incumbents argued about who would have first dibs on clipping the tickets of both merchants and customers.

It’s too early to say the banks, or the telcos, have lost the market but players like PayPal, Google with their wallet service and possibly even Apple – should a Near Field Communication (NFC) equipped iPhone appear in the near future – are going to make the mobile payment sector far more interesting and competitive.

For businesses, we need to keep a close eye on the mobile payments market as it is promising to offer a lot more options in banking and transactions that what we’ve been used to in recent years. The days of 6% merchant fees are well and truly over.

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Do you have customers or just users?

Are subscribers, visitors and users really supporting your business?

“I was on your mailing list for general info, for spams and scams etc which were helpful. Suddenly it changed and now the business format is not useful to me” said an lady when unsubscribing from one of my newsletter mailing lists.

The lady concerned had been on one of the mailing lists for over ten years and, once upon a time, had been a paying customer for my old business, PC Rescue. Although we’d only earned a $100 off her and that was seven years ago.

While it’s sad to lose a subscriber – you don’t run a service business for twelve years without caring about those who use your services – the question is was the lady really a customer?

This is an important distinction where many of us are giving away much of our knowledge for free; are our users really customers?

For the social media and web2.0 sites, this is easy; users are the raw material for their aggregated and segmented data feeds and audience, the customers are the advertisers. This is just a modern twist on the broadcast model that sustained the radio and TV industries for most of the 20th Century.

Many of those social media platforms aren’t making much money from that data and there’s a good argument those who are have been wildly overvalued by investors.

The value of user data, whether it’s aggregated or identifiable appears to be nowhere as high as most of us think, unless you intend to rob your users’ bank accounts.

Overvaluation of your customer, or user, database is a common problem for smaller businesses too. If you’re the local plumber, computer repair guy or coffee shop then the value of any mailing list is probably way overstated – the only metric that ultimately matters to the business is how much money you’re making from the customer.

If you care about the people that you deal with, this may be a hard reality to face but those who visit your shop, subscribe to your newsletter or download your free e-book aren’t your customers, only those who are prepared to pay are.

This is something we have to understand in this era of abundant free information and online services. The challenge for most of us is how many users we can convert from being window shoppers and freebie seekers into customers.

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