business | Paul Wallbank - Communications Professional

Falling Dominos, Fading Businesses

The effects of business failure can be great and personal.

“When the tide goes out, we find out who’s naked” goes the saying – nowhere is this more true than in the engineering and construction industries.

One of the hallmarks of an economy that has passed its peak is the systemic failure of contracting companies.

During a boom, or a steady growth phase of an economy, contracting companies see cashflows increase as more projects come online.

That growth affects contractors in a number of ways – they start getting used to fatter margins and management starts to believe in their own invulnerability.

Blue sky seems to stretch on forever and massive growth rates seem guaranteed far into the future.

As the market matures the sky starts to turn grey as more contractors start fighting for lucrative jobs seeing cost estimates being fudged and dodgy deals done to win jobs.

Those dodgy contracts eventually come in at a loss and management starts desperately winning more projects to cover the losses on earlier work.

And so a spiral begins.

To make matters worse, the more aggressive contractors start buying out smaller competitors.

Often those competitors have similar bad projects on their books and their impressive growth rates are based upon winning jobs they should never have tendered for.

Eventually the spiral ends when the market stalls and there aren’t enough new projects available for the loss making contractors to cover the accumulated losses. Then the failures begin.

Collapses of the Hasties Group, Reed, St Hilliers and other construction and engineering contractors are classic examples of this cycle.

While shareholders and management carry some of the burden, the real pain of failure is felt by the armies of sub-contractors – largely small, family owned businesses – these companies employ.

Most of these subcontractors will not get paid for their outstanding invoices, forcing all of them to cut back their own employment and spending. For some, they will be forced into liquidation as they can’t pay their own bills.

For the families that own those small businesses the financial and emotional pain is real and immediate. Spending stops, debts go unpaid and relationships fail.

In some cases that small bankrupt plumber, bricklayer or concreter finds the stresses of failure too great and a family loses their breadwinner.

This multiplier effect of business failures and redundancies is one of the reasons the real economy is in a much tighter position than Australia’s political, business and media elites can bear to admit.

Another saying is “a recession is when your neighbour loses their job, a depression is when you lose yours.” For most families, the economy has been in recession for three years as they’ve seen friends and relatives accept reduced hours or have contracts terminated.

Much of the commentary about Australians being irrationally pessimistic misses this aspect of our economy. It’s amusing when the smug comments come from financial and economic journalists who don’t seem to have noticed the difficulties their own industry going through.

There’s a lot of naked people treading water at the moment and the tide is heading out. The question for all of is where the deep water is and where the hell did we leave our speedos.

Giving a damn

Our works are what we are judged by – not the trinkets we gather.

Twenty years ago a lady unexpectedly passed away leaving her estate to her infant daughter. Included in the estate was a modest apartment in Sydney’s inner western suburbs.

For years, the unit sat on a local real estate manager’s books quietly gathering rental income and growing in value during Sydney’s great property boom.

Eventually the owner of the real estate agency tracked down the infant, now grown up and living in Boston. He’d hired lawyers and private detectives to track her down.

Most of us would have taken the easy course and flicked the property to the public trustee where the property would have quietly languished for years in the tender care of the dusty, but expensive, bureaucrats.

A few criminally minded ones would have sold the property and pocketed the cash, confident that no-one would ever know or care.

But Chris Wilkins decided to do the right thing and found the owner, doing anything else would have been a “heartless alternative.”

Having a heart and giving a damn is what matters.

Whether its in our work, how we deal with other people or the change we make to our society. This is what matters – big bonuses, a flash car, a ministerial position or invites to “insider” conferences are just trinkets for the egos of vain little people.

In an era where shareholder value, triple A credit ratings, executive remuneration and personal entitlements seem to stand above everything else, it’s good to be reminded that most people are doing the right thing by others.

At the end of our lives, we’re judged by our actions. What will you be proud to be judged by?

What do we call the long term?

Has the long term arrived yet?

Yesterday Optus launched their revamped business services under the banner of Optus Vision.

As part of the launch, the telecommunications company released their Future Of Business report complied by Deloitte Access Economics.

In discussing the details, economist Ric Simes of Deloitte Access made some observations on what drives businesses in adopting digital technologies. Ric broke it down into management time horizons.

Short term: Economic uncertainty is no excuse for ignoring digital strategies.

Medium term: Companies start using digital technologies for competitive advantages.

Long term: Structural change disrupts industries.

On asking Ric what his definitions of short, medium and long terms are, he said “1-2 years”, “3 to 5” and “beyond five years”.

The interesting thing with this is that for most industries the long term has arrived, in fact it’s been with us for a decade. It’s just many managers and investors haven’t noticed.

John Maynard Keynes once said, “in the long run we are all dead.”

For some industries that long term disruption has happened and their business models have died – it’s just that managers haven’t noticed they are dead.

Eroding business silos

Knowledge is power, and the businesses who can share it are those who will define the 21st Century.

During our ABC radio discussion on politics and social media with Jeff Jarvis, we inevitably came around to the issue of sharing information.

We’ve covered the risks of personal sharing extensively and Jeff’s view is that our perceptions of privacy are evolving as we explore what is acceptable or tolerable in an information rich world.

Overlooked in this discussion is just how important sharing is for businesses – particularly in breaking down silos within an organisation.

As organisations grow, silos develop as various groups or departments grow to address specific functions. It’s a natural process.

However silos can damage businesses as valuable business knowledge is kept within the group rather than shared with the entire organisation.

This is the opportunity we see now in the various cloud computing, social media and big data tools that have developed to help people, gather, curate and share information.

Today there is no excuse for critical customer information sitting in the call centre logs not being available to marketing, sales or management teams. That is just one example of thousands.

Over time we’ll see businesses owners and managers develop the skills and tools to use data more effectively. This is already happening as many IT people move from Information Technology to Knowledge Management.

Business silos won’t ever be fully eliminated; in many ways they are necessary as you can’t expect the company accountant to know everything the customer service or sales staff do.

Those businesses who are successful will be those who overcome internal politics and resist the managerial urge to build little empires, information is too important to be hoarded by middle management princelings.

In the 19th Century power came in the form of steam engines, today it comes in knowledge. How well are you harnessing the power in your business?

Bringing your own device and business change

how the Bring Your Own Device philosophy is changing the businesses operate.

Two years ago I realised that the management trend of staff bringing their own computers to work – BYOD – was more than a fad when I noticed executives were bringing the then new iPads to meetings.

Most of these executives worked in organisations where IT departments had waged war on employees connecting their own equipment to the corporate network, so this was a serious development in the computing world.

In many ways employees had been bringing their own technology devices to work for years. It was, and still is, quite common to see public servants and those working for other bureaucratic organisations arriving at meetings with an underfeatured work supplied handset and their own smartphone.

IT managers hated this as they saw those private devices as a security risk and another headache for their overworked staff to deal with.

When the iPod was enthusiastically adopted by the executive suite, the game was over for those IT managers. Suddenly they had to deal with these devices and the issues involved.

At a seminar run by systems integrator Logicalis earlier this week looked at some of the issues around BYOD for companies. What was striking in their presentations were the need for HR and legal departments to be part of the process for adopting this philosophy.

The BYOD philosophy is a big jump for organisations as it means relaxing controls on employees and for many managers that is the biggest challenge.

Part of that challenge is controlling the organisation’s data on devices that could be going anywhere and doing anything.

While companies like Logicalis and Citrix address this with remote desktop applications that create a virtual Windows desktop on the employee’s device, networking giant Cisco offer their ISE devices to run “identity services” that set up rules controlling what staff can access and where they can access it from.

Cisco Australia’s Chief Technology Officer Kevin Bloch gave a good round earlier this week up of where they see BYOD driving business. To Cisco, the move to mobile devices is irresistible as shown in their Global Mobile Data Traffic Update.

Interesting both Kevin and the Logicalis speakers see BYOD as being part of the recruitment process. Increasingly younger workers expect they will be able to use their own devices rather than relying upon employer issued workstations and mobile phones.

According to Kevin, Cisco’s research is finding many employees would trade salary for the right to bring their own device which is something that should grab the attention of budget constrained managers.

This also ties into other employer trends such as Activity Based Workplaces where companies provide hot desks and staff are expected to store their items away at the end of each workday.

Ross Miller of the GPT Group described how this is another trend driving the paperless office as staff using hot desks find packing away files and paperwork each day is an unnecessary hassle.

What we’re seeing with businesses adopting BYOD policies is a big change in the way places operate and this has consequences for all divisions of an organisation from HR and legal through to marketing and corporate affairs. It’s a genuine game changer.

How the BYOD philosophy is changing business is good example of technology driving our habits and work practices in ways we don’t always anticipate.

One thing is for sure, the workplace of the future is far more autonomous and diverse than those we’ve been used to for the last hundred years, the businesses who don’t adapt are those being left behind.

No exit

The problem of selling your business to fund retirement.

The men’s hairdresser down the road from me has hung up his scissors after twenty-four years.

The sign on his shop window apologizes and the shop itself is up for lease. Shortly there won’t be any evidence a long standing local business was once there.

Roy had no exit from his business and he sell the operation as a going concern.

For Roy his retirement will be funded solely out of his savings. If he’s lucky he’ll have saved enough of his income from the business for a comfortable retirement – unfortunately many small business owners they’ll eke out the rest of their lives on the pension.

Even for those who have planned for an exit, many of their plans have fallen over in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

It’s always been questionable whether Gen X and Y entrepreneurs could afford to pay the sums for the affluent retirement of Baby Boomer business owners but now the post 2008 contraction in lending means it’s even less likely retiring business owners like Roy will find someone to buy their businesses.

While the focus is on twenty something app developers selling their businesses for a billion dollars, the truth is that wealth for most business owners lies in the local newsagent, hairdresser or coffee shop owner being able to sell their operation for a reasonable return.

For many baby boomer business owners it’s going to mean working more years than they intended and sharply reduced retirement expectations.

Property values too are difficult. Many boomer businesses had the sensible model of buying the property their business occupies as a retirement nest egg.

Again those properties are too expensive for the new generation and the deleveraging economy means the outlook for property values isn’t good.

On every level, things are going to be tough for those wanting to sell businesses over the next decade.

Those who do get good prices for their businesses are going to be those doing something exceptional to gain attention with income and profits that make them stand out from the cloud.

Just being the best hairdresser in the neighbourhood or having a popular cafe isn’t going to be enough.

Hopefully Roy The Barber managed to stash away enough for a well deserved comfortable retirement.

Depreciating the future

We’ve become used to not planning for necessary costs. Will it eventually hurt us?

When I wrote my first book back in 1998, one of the things my editor and I did was look at the cost of buying and maintaining technology.

Regardless of how we chopped the costs up, it came up consistently that the purchase cost of a personal computer was around a third of the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO).

The TCO concept is something forgotten by people – be it a minister announcing a billion dollar purchase of jet fighters, a CEO boasting how he’s opened a hundred new outlets this year, or a family buying an investment property.

It was bought sharply into focus for me when one of my kids claimed he couldn’t use his government provided school laptop because the IT guy didn’t have the repair software to fix a problem.

Despite millions being spent on providing these computers, little has been allocated to maintaining them.

This is typical of the public education sector, early in the adventure of building a computer support business I learned that services to schools and universities were fraught with difficulties as many would infrequently receive a fixed amount for capital expenditure but nothing for ongoing maintenance. You see this in the conditions of buildings on many campuses.

Forgetting operating and support costs is something we all fall for.

Strangely motor vehicles are the only area we consistently factor in maintenance and running costs, probably because we get the fuel price shoved in our face every time we take the car for a drive.

While computers are becoming disposable items just like fridges and TVs were maintenance isn’t so much an issue given most last five to ten years before needing expensive repairs, its still true for many capital items.

There’s another aspect to forgetting costs – depreciation.

Depreciation allows us to factor in the declining value of our business assets yet I keep meeting people who treat depreciation as income or even an asset in itself. This is particularly true among real estate investors who prefer to buy newly built apartments for the higher depreciation deductions they can claim against tax.

Bizarre stuff and true bubble thinking where people think operating losses will be offset in the medium term by capital gains.

One of the aspects of 1980s thinking is that business costs like training and maintenance can be palmed off elsewhere or infinitely deferred. That isn’t the case.

In society and business, we’re seeing the effects of pretending these costs don’t exist. Somewhere in there lies opportunity.

Customer service gods

After years of neglect, customer service now matters again.

“Treat your customer service people like gods,” says online business advisor Todd Alexander.

One of the conceits of the 1980s business model was that customer service, like training and capital investment, is an expense that should be driven down at all costs.

In corporations, government departments and politics those who dealt directly with the customers, taxpayers or voters were seen to be the low level, low status employees who could be outsourced at the first possible opportunity.

That was great when markets were growing and there was an abundance of low hanging fruit to be plucked from the marketplace.

Now that customers are cash strapped and margins are falling, keeping customers happy becomes more important.

A statistic often quoted is that acquiring a new customer costs five times more than keeping an existing one, that difference may be exaggerated but it’s not far from the truth.

Those departing customers can do great damage to the business as well.

In the 1980s customers had little recourse apart from taking their business elsewhere. Often they didn’t have that choice in sectors where duopolies reign.

Now customers can vent their frustrations to the world on the web or through social media and there’s no hiding from the loss of reputation.

What’s more, many of the businesses that relied upon picking the low hanging fruit of a growing economy, high immigration or increasing consumer debt to find more customers through the last thirty years now find the rules of changed.

Customer service now matters.

Any management that considers customer service to be low status is a dinosaur and will soon be following them.

It’s a good time to be disrupting comfortable business models.

Cargo cults and your business

Do you think the government, China or big business is going to save you?

“We need an interest rate cut” thunders the business media.

“Give us GST relief” plea the big retailers.

“China will boom forever” assert the government economists.

“Big corporations will buy us out for a billion dollars” pray the hot new start ups.

“I’ll win the lottery this week” thinks the overworked cleaner.

We’re all waiting for the big saviour that’s going to rescue us, our business or the economy.

It could be a big win, a big client or a big government spending program to rescue us.

Sadly, should we lucky enough for that saviour to arrive, it may not turn out to be all we expected.

There’s many lottery winners who curse their win while many disaffected founders who watch their startup baby fade away neglectful new owners.

For a lumbering department store, tax changes will do little to save them from market changes their managements are incapable of comprehending.

Interest rate cuts are great for business when customers are prepared to take on more debt but in a period where consumers are deleveraging a rates cut will do little to stimulate demand.

The clamour for interest rate cuts are a classic case of 1980s thinking; what worked in 1982, 1992 or 2002 isn’t going to work the same way in 2012.

What’s more, the Zero Interest Rate Policies – ZIRP – of the United States and Japan are a vain attempt to recapitalise zombie banks saddled with overvalued assets rather than an effort to help the wider economy.

China is more complex and there’s no doubt the country and its people are becoming wealthier and there are great opportunities.

The worry is most of what we read today could have been the wishful thinking written about Japan thirty years ago. Lazily selling commodities to the Chinese while they create the real value is not a path to long term prosperity.

In business we have a choice, we can pray for luck or we can make our own luck.

Some choose to join the cargo cult and pray, or demand, that someone else does something. Others get out and do it.

John Frum gravesite image by Tim Ross through Wikimedia Commons

Reading the global tea leaves

What can we learn about the global economy from the world’s biggest corporation.

Where is the world economy heading? An interesting exercise by the website Business Insider looks at the earnings reports and announcements by some of the world’s biggest corporations to get an idea of the the direction of the global business world.

The results of Business Insider’s article are interesting and worthwhile of a closer look as we can see some real trends along with some risky bets by management who seem reluctant to acknowledge we’ve moved out of the 1980s.

China’s western water shortage

This is an interesting curve ball; one of the central planks of the China Cargo Cult that believes unfettered Chines growth will drive the world economy indefinitely is that the country’s inland provinces will grow in a similar pattern to that of the coastal provinces.

Anyone who has travelled in those provinces, particularly in the poorer Northern regions like Gansu, has seen first hand the serious erosion, desertification and water problems these areas face.

It shows the China story is not as simple as many of the cargo cultists believe.

Europe is not dead

Even in the darkest days there are opportunities for innovative organisations and regardless of what we think of McDonald’s products, they aren’t afraid to experiment and take risks.

McDonald’s move to “value meals” in Europe replicates what worked in the United States in both the 2001 and 2008 economic downturns. This appears to be working in Europe just as it did in North America.

We should also keep in mind that Europe is a diverse collection of cultures and economies so despair in Athens doesn’t necessarily mean pessimism in Arnhem.

The bottom of the US housing market

In his investor briefing, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon indicated the bank thought the US housing market is at the bottom subject to the American economy not going back into recession.

While it’s possible that the US housing market has bottomed, it’s highly unlikely we’re going to see the US housing market roar back to 2005 levels even if there is a US recovery so we shouldn’t be expecting hockey stick style growth in the US domestic sector driving the world economy as it did through the early 2000s.

Louis Vuitton confirms that the global market for ultra luxury goods is healthy

The entire luxury goods boom is a side effect of the massive amount of money pumped into to the world economy to deal with the 2008 economic crisis.

Like Macao casinos and Silicon Valley venture capital bubbles, this is transitory and at best a marginal influence on overall growth and employment.

It’s interesting how many presentations I’ve seen recently citing the luxury goods markets as evidence all is good in the world economy. This shows the desperation of those whose businesses rely on mindless consumerism.

China’s middle class will save us all

If you were searching for a corporate example of the economic cargo cult surrounding China, then Yum Foods would be one of the best.

The idea that China’s “consuming classes” will number half the nation’s population is some sort of economic Lake Wobegon, where everybody is above average.

Even if Yum’s prediction proves to be true, the nature of China’s economy and the nation’s stage of growth means consumption patterns of the country’s middle – or “consuming” – classes are going to more like those of Americans in 1912 rather than 2002 which undermines any business model based upon the late 20th Century’s profligate spending.

Businesses are once again investing in IT

Microsoft suprised us all last week with their profit results. Earnings from Windows, servers and office suites were all up on improved personal computer sales.

That businesses are investing in IT makes sense as one of the things that is cut early by organisations looking for savings is IT. That happened in 2009 in response to the economic crisis.

Even before the 2009 financial shock, businesses had been under-investing in IT partly because of Microsoft’s failure with the Vista operating system.

Now many businesses have decade old desktop computing systems and the pressures to upgrade are becoming intense.

The worry for Microsoft is Apple’s domination of mobile devices and the rise of cloud computing means that its not necessarily Microsoft will benefit from most of the IT investment.

Electricity prices will rise and low natural gas prices are unsustainable

Energy prices are a riddle within an enigma, however there’s certainly some distorting effects in these markets. CSX’s views on natural gas markets illustrate this.

We can expect more convulsions in energy prices as demand hinges on China, the US and European economic growth coupled with the threat of more conflict in Iran and Iraq.

Should China deliver the growth that the cargo cultists believe then energy prices will continue to climb, which may happen anyway.

The end of the telephone

Again Business Insider’s headline is a little misleading, as Verizon see the decline of the POTS – Plain Old Telephone System – networks that were designed around voice data and a switch to data based networks that don’t treat all traffic as information packets.

Data matters more than voice and we don’t want to be tied to a phone line.

That the telcos see mobile data as their main revenue drivers shouldn’t be a surprise as this has been the trend for two decades.

Consumers are borrowing again

This claim is a worry as it indicates some consumers – along with many lenders – are falling into the habits that nearly bought them unstuck in 2008.

A superficial view of the Amex announcement actually raises more questions than it answers and there’s a suspicion that the credit card provider is driving growth through special offers or reforming their excessive merchant charges.

Like JP Morgan, much of Amex’s optimism is based upon the US economy moving out of recession and American consumers resuming their credit binge. The latter may prove to be a bridge too far.

Winning in diverse European markets

Like McDonald’s, IBM sees plenty of opportunity in Europe and makes the point that, like Asia, the European markets are diverse.

IBM may turn out to be a more of a beneficiary of the increased IT spending that Microsoft is relying upon as Big Blue’s consulting services and cloud technologies are more attuned with where the enterprise computing market is going.

Also in an era of government austerity, IBM may be able to offer process savings to cash strapped agencies and authorities.

Asian consumers save the cigarette industry

There’s no doubt East Asian societies like a smoke so the idea that international tobacco brands see great opportunities in markets like South Korea, the Philippines and Indonesia shouldn’t be a surprise.

Interestingly China doesn’t feature in these projections as their market is largely closed to foreign manufacturers.

While the short term looks good for tobacco companies in East Asia, it’s difficult not to see that rising affluence starts to see public health and anti smoking campaigns similar to those in the West developing over the longer term.

Yahoo parties like it’s 1999

Web surfers want relevant content according to Yahoo’s management. Next month we’ll see these business giants claim social networks and cloud computing are the next big thing.

You can’t help but thing Yahoo’s management are very well qualified to tell us when horses have bolted and vanished over the horizon.

The problem for Yahoo is that customised content is expensive unless you’re going to “crowdsource” it with a social layer as Facebook does and Google is trying to do.

If Yahoo can pull something like this off – and there is no indication they can – then the business has a chance of surviving. Right now the smart money would be betting on the being broken up in the near future.

So where is the world economy going?

One unsurprising thing from these corporate projection is that some businesses are better prepared than others for the changes that are happening.

IBM and McDonald’s stand out as those prepared to innovate and change their business models to suit the prevailing situations.

Companies that believe the 1980s are just around the corner again seem to be the ones most vulnerable – its not surprising that its finance organisations like JP Morgan and Amex are betting the farm on continued massive growth in consumer debt.

The China Cargo Cultist are also vulnerable. If it turns out that Chinese growth – like US consumer spending in the 1980s – can’t go on forever then companies like Yum Foods are going to struggle with growth rates far lower than they expect.

One thing is clear, that there are a lot more nuances in the world’s economy that what you’d pick up from media headlines. The key for big and small entrepreneurs is figure out where these nuances present a business opportunity.

Black tea image courtesy of Zsuzsanna Kilian and SXC storck photos.

Inflating titles, inflated apirations

How job title inflation can affect an organisation

This story first appeared in Smart Company on 19 April 2012.

“She listed her job on LinkedIn as my ghostwriter,” reflected the journalist about his publishing business’ Gen-Y staff member.

The journalist’s lament reflects an unexpected corporate risk in social media; that of employees giving themselves grandiose and sometimes damaging job profiles.

Over the last 20 years, title inflation has been rife in the business world as corporations and government agencies doled out grandiose titles to soothe the egos of fragile management egos.

So it isn’t surprising that many of us succumb to the temptation to give ourselves a grand title online.

In the journo’s case a young graduate working as an editor in his publishing business listed herself as his ghostwriter, risking a huge dent to his credibility among other the lizards at the pub or the Quill Awards.

That business journalist is not alone, in the connected economy what would have been a quaint title on a business card or nameplate is now being advertised to the world.

Making matters worse, we now have tools like LinkedIn and other social media sites to check out a business’ background and who are the key contacts in an organisation.

So what your staff call themselves is now important. It can confuse customers, cause internal staff problems (“how come he’s an Executive Group General Manager?”), damage business reputations and quite often put an unexpected workload on a relatively junior employee.

In your social media policy – which is now essential in any business that employs staff – you need to clarify what titles your people can bestow upon themselves.

As well as making this clear to new staff, a regular web search on your business that includes all of the popular social media sites should be a regular task.

Just as economic inflation can hurt your business, so too can uncontrolled title inflation. Watch it isn’t affecting your operations.