Graphs are great for illustrating a story, and also excellent at misleading people.
A good example of where a graph can give an incorrect impression is the Sydney Morning Herald’s story Whatever Happened to the Middle Class.
The story is a very good explanation of the predicament Australia’s political classes have put themselves into – exacerbated by their 1950s view of dividing the workforce into poorly paid ‘blue collar’ workers and affluent ‘white collar’ office staff – but it suffers from the selective use of headline graphs.
Viewing the big picture
The first graph shows how Australians are identifying themselves as middle class and the trend looks staggering,
Now if we add those who identify themselves as working class, the picture looks even more dramatic with some pretty volatile swings,
However if we now add in those who identify themselves as rich, or upper class, we get a better perspective as the entire range is now shown,
Selective choosing the Y, or vertical, axis will always give an exaggerated view of a trend or proportion. Once we take the full range in we see the real extent of things. It also has the benefit of showing the trends aren’t as volatile as first appear.
Middle class perceptions
When we look at the graph showing the full picture there’s a number of interesting trends and characteristics about Australian society that come out of it which are worthy of some future blog posts.
Most notably is the identification of Australians being middle class as their property values increased.
On this point, it’s worthwhile contrasting the Australian experience with the US, here’s a Gallup poll from last year on how Americans see themselves,
While the definitions are different – that Americans differentiate ‘working class’ and ‘lower class’ is interesting in itself – it’s clear that the same trend happened in the US with more people identifying themselves as being members of middle class when their property values were increasing.
In 2008 and 9 there’s suddenly a sharp increase in Americans identifying themselves as working class as the property downturn bites. The steady increase in those claiming to be ‘lower class’ from 2006 onwards is worth closer examination.
What this means for Australia
The implications of the US trends is that any Australian politician intending to dismantle John Howard’s middle class welfare state will have to wait until the property market falls before trying to win any popular support.
For this year’s Australian election though, what’s clear is that any attempt to stoke the fires of class warfare is going to fail dismally in the outer suburban marginal seats so coveted by both parties.
We’re going to see a lot more selective graphs during the course of this year, it’s worthwhile taking time to look at them closely. The stories may be different, and a lot more nuanced, than the headlines tell us.
Middle class welfare handouts have proven to be almost impossible to claw bank once once the votes are purchased with it.
Ireland being a case in point with the recent rows about taxing child benefit on income over 36k euros, or the UK where the govt started to claw child back on earnings over £50k.
Speaking as a very recent migrant to these shores, I was amazed to see the middle class welfare implicit in solar subsidies for example which come at a cost of making electricity hugely more expensive for those who couldnt afford to install them as another example.
The only hope for is to do a big bang approach right at the onset of a new govt in the midst of a a freefalling ecomonic crisis. Piecemeal reform does not work and will provide the freeloaders with the time to organise to sustain their sense of entitlement.
I agree, Joe. What I see is that middle class welfare can only go on so long before the middle classes themselves run out of money. After all, at the end of the day it’s the middle classes who pay most of the taxes.
Middle class welfare is the only growth industry.
@ Joe Blow; have you got yourself a First Home Savers Account?
The ultimate middle class rort.
i listened to your presentation last night and was very impressed with the information you provided…in fact I neally rang to ask where in the big picture am I….I realise now I am one of the post war babies…born in 1942…….with 4 sisters…..our childhood was tough at times however my upbringing would, in later life, when faced with exceptional difficult times… got me through! I am still working 3 days per week in mental Health, 5 years ago I studied Social Work and now live my llifes dream….well almost. My dream was to study at teachers college…..however due to family tough financial times I had to leave school before age 14….help my mother with the younger children and look for work. Married at age 20…..god forbid nowadays…..4 children which I raised mostly on my own…..all children are married and lead successful lives…I have 12 grandchildren 1 great grand child. So I am one of the 65 to 75 age group, I plan to enjoy this period…travel….spend time with my kids and grandies….and currently I am drawing up a house plan soon to be perused by an arcihtect….my life is full, active….awake at 5am every morning….walk with friends for approximately 45 minutes then meet up with other walkers for coffee at the local bakery…..I am very grateful to live the life I live…..with all the ups and downs we encounter…..thanks for your program…….