Disrupting the GPS network

Spoofing GPS signals presents a real risk to many industries and businesses.

Another day, another technology security issues – this time The Economist reports the Global Positioning System can easily be hacked to alter the courses and positions of vehicles and equipment, something proved by University of Texas researchers taking control of a super yacht by setting up a false GPS signal.

Given the importance of the GPS, this is a significant problem. There’s no end of mischief that malicious individuals could get up to by distorting the signals in their neighbourhoods.

One idea that immediately came to mind on reading the story was how a cunning restaurant owner could make all the GPS units in the neighbourhood think they are sitting outside his business. Anybody using a smartphone app would think the nearest eating place was his, it would also fool systems like Local Measure that use geotagging as part of their service.

The risks though are greater than sneaky restaurant owners, the University of Texas researchers showed how a 65m, $80 million dollar ship can be tricked into sailing off course by ‘spoofing’ the real GPS signal.

With everything from emergency services’ tracking systems to smartphone and dog collars relying on GPS, the risks are huge.

It’s another reason why we need robust systems along with the critical thinking skills to know when the computer is wrong.

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Understanding the social media whispers

The evolution of Roamz into Local Measure tells us a lot about how businesses can use social media and online local services.

What do you do when paying customers tell you they would rather your product be different to what you were offering? This is the predicament that faced Jonathan Barouch when he discovered the real market for his Roamz service was in social media business intelligence.

How Jonathan dealt with this was the classic business pivot, where the original idea of Roamz evolved into Local Measure.

Originally Roamz was set up to consolidate social services like Twitter, Foursquare and Facebook. If you wanted to find a restaurant, bar or hotel in your neighbourhood, Roamz would pick the most relevant reviews from the various services to show you what was in your neighbourhood.

The idea for Roamz came from when Jonathan was looking for places to take his new baby, jugging several different location services to find local cafes, shops or playground is hard work when you have a little one to deal with.

A notable feature of Roamz was the use of geotags to determine relevance. Even if the social media user doesn’t mention the business, Roamz would use the attached location information to determine what outlet was being discussed.

Enter Local Measure

While Roamz was doing well it wasn’t making money and, in Jonathan’s words, it was a “slower burn, longer term play”. On the other hand businesses were telling him and his sales team that they would pay immediately to use the service to monitor what people were saying about them on social media.

“People said, ‘hey this is cool, we want to pay for this.” Jonathan said of the decision to pivot Roamz into Local Measure.

“I want to say it was a really difficult decision but it wasn’t because we had people saying ‘we want to pay you if you continue with this product.’”

Local Measure is built on the Roamz platform but instead of helping consumers find local venues, the service now gives businesses a tool to monitor what people are saying about them on social media services.

The difference with the larger social media monitoring tools like Radian6 is Local Measure gives an intimate view of individual posts and users. The idea being a business can directly monitor what people are saying are saying about a store or a product.

For dispersed companies, particularly franchise chains and service businesses, it gives local managers and franchisees the ability to know what’s happening with their outlet rather than having to rely on a social media team at head office.

The most immediate benefit of Local Measure is in identifying loyal users and influencers. Managers can see who is tweeting, checking in or updating their status in their store.

Armed with that intelligence, the local store owner, franchisee or manager can engage with the shop’s most enthusiastic customers.

Customer service is one of the big undervalued areas of social media and Jonathan believes Local Measure can help businesses improve how they help customers.

“It makes invisible customers visibile to management,” says Jonathan.

An example Jonathan gives is of a cinema where the concession’s frozen drink machine wasn’t set currently. While the staff were oblivious to the issue, customers were complaining on various social media channels. Once the theatre manager saw the feedback he was able to quickly fix the problem.

Employee behaviour online is also an important concern for modern managers, if employees are posting inappropriate material on social media then the risks to a business are substantial.

“From an operational point perspective we’ve picked up really weird and wonderful things that the business doesn’t know,” says Jonathon. “Staff putting things in the public domain that is really damaging to brands.”

“We’ve had two or three cases of behaviour that you shudder at. I’ve been presenting and it has popped up and the clients have said ‘delete that, we don’t want that up’ and I say ‘that’s the whole point – it’s out there.’”

That’s a lesson that Domino’s Pizza learned in the US when staff posted YouTube videos of each other putting toppings up their noses. Once unruly employees post these things, it’s hard work undoing the brand damage and for smaller businesses or franchise outlets the bad publicity could be fatal.

Local Measure is a good example of a business pivot, it’s also shows how concepts like Big Data, social media and geolocation come together to help businesses.

Being able to listen to customers also shows how marketing and customer service are merging in an age where the punters are no longer happy to be seen and not heard.

It’s the business who grab tools like Local Measure who are going to be the success stories of the next decade, the older businesses who ignore the changes in customer service, marketing and communications are going to be a memory.

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Are apps killing the text message?

Have we seen the peak of the mobile phone SMS use?

One of the great accidental successes of our times has been the Short Messaging System – or SMS – which was designed as a control function on GSM mobile phones.

In 1993, telcos in Finland started offering SMS as a feature and Nokia began supporting the service on their phones.

Text messaging quickly became a worldwide success as mobile phone users found sending a text message was often more convenient that calling someone.

As the marginal cost for providing SMS is effectively nothing, the feature being built into equipment, the service was a goldmine for mobile phone operators. However the tide might be turning as apps take over.

This was emphasised in a submission by telco Optus to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on some regulatory changes governing mobile connection costs where the provider raised the point that the rate of SMS growth is slowing.

First, while SMS usage has grown significantly since 2009, the rate of this growth has slowed significantly over the last year few years. This slow-down is largely due to greatercompetition from IP-based over-the-top (OTT) messaging services.
Over The Top services is telco jargon for apps that replicate phone functions, like Skype or Viber and these are expected to start taking a chunk from telco revenues.
While Optus’ submission is somewhat self serving as they are using the claim as an argument to get more protection, it may well be that telcos are seeing the age of what was the golden goose of SMS coming to an end.
If so, it will be the death of a technology which, for a short time was a very lucrative one.

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Have the smartphone’s glory days come to an end?

Do declining margins at Apple, Samsung and HTC indicate the smartphone industry’s glory days have come to an end?

Today smartphone manufacturers Samsung and HTC released their quarterly results with both reporting falling margins, does this mean the boom days of the smartphone have come to an end?

As industry analyst Asymco reports, Apple are also suffering decline margins as component prices increase, ironically some of those parts come from Samsung.

The question posed by Reuters in reporting Samsung’s decline  is ”has the smartphone business peaked?”

It may well be that the glory days of the smartphone industry have come to an end as cheaper Chinese phones enter the market.

Just as the PC industry is being disrupted after three decades of growth, could it be the smartphone sector is suffering a similar change after just seven years?

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Can mobile networks build Myanmar’s economy?

Myanmar, or Burma, is emerging from being a backward economy, can mobile networks help the nation’s economic development?

Fifty years ago Myanmar, or Burma, was one of Asia’s most affluent nations, but a succession of poor governments have seen the country become one of the world’s poorest. Can mobile phone networks be part of Myanmar’s econmic recovery?

The potential economic impact of mobile communications in Myanmar is a report prepared by Deloitte Consulting for network equipment vendor Ericsson claiming that rolling out cellphone networks across the nation will create 90,000 jobs in the emerging economy.

Myanmar is starting from a low base with only 2% mobile penetration rates, compared to over 40% in Timor-Leste and Laos while the average across South-East Asia is over 100%.

Myanmar lags south east asia mobile penetration rates

To address this the Myanmar Post and Telecommunications Department is looking a splitting the existing phone monopoly into three or possibly four licenses.

Ericsson’s report looks at the economic effects of rolling out these networks and some of the opportunities for local entrepreneurs and communities.

The biggest employment effect identified in the Ericsson/Deloitte report is through the reseller networks with 50,000 of the 90,000 jobs created by new mobile services being in the sales channel.

What’s striking about that prediction is how it doesn’t look at the broader effects of modernising the country’s phone network. The report’s authors do mention they believe the overall benefits could boost the Burmese economy by over 9% in a best case scenario but don’t fully delve into where they believe that growth will come from.

myanmar-gdp-effects-of-mobile-networks

It can be expected there’ll be many more indirect benefits as Myanmar’s communications networks jump into the 21st Century, the report itself has a chapter citing various benefits mobile networks have delivered to countries as diverse as Kenya, Chile and Bhutan.

Particularly interesting with Myanmar’s development will be the Chinese influence in rolling out these networks – the PRC is already the biggest foreign investor in the country having largely ignored western sanctions on the military regime and it can be expected players like Huawei and China Mobile will be well positioned in bidding for licenses and contracts.

For local entrepreneurs the complex Burmese language is a natural opportunity for app developers and programmers to develop localised versions of successful applications, the lack of English and Chinese language skills among the population – another terrible neglect by successive governments – will hamstring Myanmar’s digital media export opportunities.

Probably the biggest risk to Myanmar’s success though is the role of the military who are expected to get one of those mobile licenses.

Burma’s terrible economic performance over the last fifty years has been largely due to the incompetence, greed and corruption of various military rulers and, while their continued influence in the nation’s economy may be necessary to placate them and their cronies, the legacy of these people may act as a break on a really open economy or fair markets.

For Myanmar, the opening of cell phone networks is great opportunity. Hopefully the vested interests that have held this nation back for so long will resist the temptation to further damage the country’s prospects.

Burmese landscape image by ZaNuDa through sxc.hu.

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Is Thorsten Heins the world’s bravest executive?

Blackberry CEO claims the tablet computer’s day are coming to an end – it’s a very brave call.

“In five years I don’t think there’ll be a reason to have a tablet any more,” Blackberry CEO Thorsten Heins told Bloomberg TV while showing off his company’s new Q10 handset.

Predicting the end of the tablet computer is a very brave call – particularly from a man whose company’s market share has fallen 90% since the iPhone was released – but does it have any merit?

Thorsten’s view is the smartphone is the device most people rely on. Of the three ‘screens’ we use, the mobile phone is the one we rely on the most and it will be increasingly important as mobile payments, NFC and other technologies develop.

Blackberry’s position is exactly the opposite of Microsoft’s ‘three screens’ strategy with Windows 8 where the aim is to have the same system running on phones, tablets and personal computers.

Apple and Google have chosen to modify their systems, or even have totally different ones such as iOS and OSX, to suit different sized devices.

Supporting the Blackberry view is the famous survey by the now defunct Nortel Networks in 2008 that found one third of workers would rather lose their wallet than their mobile.

When that survey was carried out five years ago, smartphones really hadn’t made much of an impact in the marketplace as Nokia and Blackberry dominated the handset industry.

Today, with smartphones from Apple and Samsung dominating, there’s no doubt the mobile phone is even more important to the typical user. So maybe Thorsten and the Blackberry team are onto something.

Even if the smartphone does turn out to be most peoples’ main computer, it’s unlikely tablets like the iPad are going to fade away as the larger format is too handy for many uses.

Like most things in life it’s a matter of choosing the right tool for the job and in many cases a tablet, or a Personal Computer, is the better device.

What is clear though, is that Blackberry has to make some big bets to survive, so Thorsten’s talking big is quite understandable. You have to give him points for chutzpah.

Disclaimer: I was given a Blackberry Z10 to trial while travelling in Tasmania. I couldn’t figure out how to use it.

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Breaking out of the gilded cage – Microsoft’s challenge with Windows

How can Microsoft adapt to a market that’s shifting away from the products which have delivered spectacular profits over the last thirty years?

Update: With the announcement that Steve Ballmer will be stepping down as Microsoft CEO, the future direction of the company now becomes the biggest challenge for his replacement.

Over the last three weeks the news for the personal computer industry has not been good. How does Microsoft, the business that leads the sector, move on from the product which has been its mainstay?

Three stories in the last three weeks have shown how dire the situation is for personal computers, Windows and Microsoft.

Consulting firm IDC’s report that global PC sales had dropped a stunning 14% was a clear signal the PC era is ending.

A Gartner report two weeks ago warned that Microsoft faces a slide into irrelevance as Android device sales dwarf Windows’ numbers and Apple sales catch up with PCs.

Industry commentators Asymco made similar observations about the state of the PC industry noting that Apple takes 45% of all profits from an industry that is in decline.

In the past Microsoft has responded quickly to industry threats, one of the great management feats of the 20th Century was Bill Gates’ turning the company around to meet the challenges of Netscape and the newly popular internet.

So how can Microsoft meet the challenges of today’s much more competitive world, while protecting their impressive revenues and profits?

Replace the management

Steve Ballmer was employee number 30 at Microsoft having been hired in 1980. Since his appointment as CEO in 2000 the company’s stock price has wallowed.

Regardless of Ballmer’s performance, 13 years is a long tenure for a CEO in an industry that has radically changed in the last decade. A new perspective in the executive suite may well help the company leverage its strengths and weaknesses.

Microsoft’s management problems shouldn’t just be blamed on Ballmer however, a stunning Vanity Fair profile of the company last year blamed human resources policies, specifically ‘stack ranking’ employees, for poor performance.

Overhauling the company’s notoriously siloed management would give Microsoft much more flexibility in meeting the cloud and mobile challenges to its business.

Ditch Windows

At the core of Microsoft’s success is the Windows operating system which in 2012 delivered a quarter of the company’s revenue but has reported no growth for two years in a stagnating PC market.

It is still a cash rich business though and as a stand alone entity, the operating system division could still be an attractive private equity investment.

The story of Michael Dell’s attempt to take his company private is instructive as investment companies fight for a stake in a business with a turnover is less than Microsoft’s Windows division and far less profits.

Double down on Windows

The counter view to floating the Windows division is to double down and concentrate on the company’s core business. While the PC industry is fading, the need for embedded systems in machines is growing.

Microsoft though hasn’t executed well with non-PC operating systems – the continued failure of tablet versions of Windows XP is a good example – so it may mean a new management team to guide the company down this path.

Claim the cloud

The biggest cash generator for Microsoft is their business division that includes their Office and Dynamics products. These are most at risk by the market’s move to cloud services.

Paradoxically, Microsoft has a track record on the cloud products having acquired Hotmail in 1997, developed the Azure platform and taking steps to move its business products across to Office 365.

Microsoft’s experience with Hotmail is instructive of the company’s uncertainty with cloud services having renamed the product constantly. Currently its incarnation as Outlook.com indicates further integration with Office 365.

With a focused management, Microsoft may well be able to compete against both Google and Amazon on the cloud by leveraging its traditional market strengths and its army of evangelists, developers and support partners.

Buy Nokia

So far the alliance with Nokia has been underwhelming with Windows Phones being met with market indifference.  A purchase of the struggling mobile phone giant would give Microsoft more depth in understanding the mobile marketplace.

A more interesting aspect of Microsoft buying the mobile vendor would be the acquisition of Nokia’s mapping technology. This would give Microsoft an advantage over Apple and give them an opportunity to compete with Google in the still developing mobile and local markets.

For Microsoft, sticking with the status quo is tempting – a business with seventy-three billion dollars income and $17 billion in profits still makes it one of the world’s most impressive businesses.

The risk though is all of the company’s major revenue streams are being challenged by mobile and cloud service and Microsoft have to adapt to a world very different to the one they grew in.

As Gartner have pointed out, the company risks becoming irrelevant in an era of mobile devices accessing cloud services.

The Challenge for Microsoft’s management and board is to find the spark that keeps the company relevant in a marketplace where the company is no longer the dominant player.

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