Cloud computing’s elusive gold

Microsoft and Alphabet’s Google show the fragility of even the most profitable online business models

Alphabet, aka Google, and Microsoft yesterday announced their quarterly results and despite both making healthy profits the numbers show the online world is a tough place to make money.

Microsoft’s stockholders took a five percent hit to their wallets after the company announced weaker than expected results for the last quarter.

Notable in the results were the stunning sales growth of its cloud services with Azure boasting a 120% year on year on year increase.

Yet Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud division which includes Azure saw its profits fall nearly 13%, showing the company’s products may be making inroads against Amazon Web Services but making profits in that market is very tough indeed.

Similarly Alphabet’s results still show the company is sill totally dependent upon the advertising river of gold for its profits.

Particularly concerning for Alphabet is its ‘other bets’ division doubled its sales but saw losses increase by 20%. Overall Google’s advertising revenues made up 89% of Alphabet’s total revenues this quarter compared to 90% last year.

While both companies have very healthy profits – about five billion dollars this quarter for each – Alphabet’s continued dependence on Google advertising and Microsoft’s declining profitability should be a worrying sign for shareholders in both companies.

Both companies show that despite the apparent riches of the technology sector, making profits is getting tougher. Shareholders of both companies should be watching carefully for any disruption to either business.

Silicon Valley’s unicorn monoculture

Silicon Valley’s obsession with finding the next tech unicorns could be its weakness.

What happens in Silicon Valley when your startup doesn’t fit into the current hot ‘unicorn’ categories?

I recently spoke to one female founder about her business and why she chose to setup on the US East Coast rather than follow the popular path of establishing a San Francisco base. Her answer shows the obsessions Silicon Valley investors have and why the Bay Area model may not be right for all companies.

Originally we planned to set up in the Bay area. That’s what you do right? So our company’s registered office was in Palo Alto and then I started plans to have three of my staff and myself relocate to San Francisco. I took onboard some Silicon Valley Advisors and this was a pretty horrific experience that taught me a lot. Here is my experience of trying to set up in the Bay Area then not. This is my cautionary tale to other Aussie Start Ups.

The Valley comes with a certain formula that gets beaten into you. Here’s how it goes:

A Start Up must:

  • Be in the Bay Area
  • Have had an MVP in market
  • Be an incorporated US company, preferably a Delaware company if you want US VC investment
  • Have a Run Rate (annual revenue) of $3-5million dollars in order to attract investment
  • Not be enterprise software
  • Be a SaaS company like Atlassian with a similar business model
  • Have a product that is inexpensive where clients can self-install and there is no professional services or servicing required

I found the Silicon Valley Advisors I dealt with to be arrogant, formulaic and could not see potential outside of the standard Unicorn-creating formula. So I realized the Bay Area was not going to be a good fit for My business. Additionally I figured that none of our clients were actually based in the Bay Area and I needed to be near them. As a FinTech company the logical thing was for us to go to where our clients were so that we could constantly listen to them. Listen to their problems, understand their business, build relationships, have them help us figure out what our product should be and pay us

So we moved to NYC and set up on office in Chelsea. From NYC it takes only a couple of hours to get to Boston, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Columbus, Chicago, even Texas to be with clients.

Also the investment discussions are much more ‘normal’ and investors are respectful of me as the CEO and Founder and my background and potential to build a significant, revenue led and profitable large software company. They are backing me and value that I am experienced. Not once has age or gender come up. In fact to be fair, probably the opposite. Being a woman over 40 seems to be appealing to East Coast clients and investors.

The founder’s experience also betrays a herd mentality among the Silicon Valley investors, something that may be a weakness for the industry and the region. It certainly indicates the dominant business model may be very fragile as markets turn against tech unicorns.

When a CEO meets the Internet of Things

Life changes when you become the CEO says Bill Wagner of LogMeIn

Life changes when you become the chief executive says Bill Wagner, the CEO and President at remote access company LogMeIn. “I now spend thirty percent of my time with investors,” he says

Wagner, previously the company’s Chief Operating Officer, took over the leadership at LogMeIn last September after founder Michael Simon  stepped down.

The company is in the midst of a major change as Simon steered the company toward the Internet of Things in response to the shift away from desktop personal computing that had been the business’ core market.

LogMeIn’s IoT strategy is around being a trusted platform for controlling the myriad household, CEcommercial and industrial devices that want to connect to the internet, with Wagner only seeing AWS as being their main competitors that has seen a range of companies entering in the last few years.

“I don’t think IoT will be a wave, it’s more like a rising tide,” Wagner says.

Wagner is one of the IoT’s enthusiasts citing applications ranging from the insurance sector through to connected clothing as being potential markets, although industrial application may be the earliest adopters of LogMeIn’s services. “The more industrial the industry, the more mature is M2M to IoT adoption,” he observes.

That adoption though is tempered by the presence of industry groups where Wagner maintains LogMeIn’s hostility towards slower moving associations such as the Industrial Internet Alliance and proprietary platforms like Google Nest.

An advantage Wagner sees in his taking over as LogMeIn’s Chief Executive Officer is his experience with the company, “I don’t know how externally recruited CEOs manage it,” he observes.

With LogMeIn facing a continued transition into uncertain markets, the company needs a steady vision. It may be that internal recruitment is an important strategic move.

Google focuses on the short term

Google’s reported divestment of Boston Robotics could mark a fundamental change in the business’ culture.

Just over two years ago Google acquired high profile robot developer Boston Robotics, at the time it appeared a major step both the search engine giant  and the industry.

Today, Bloomberg reports Google are looking at divesting Boston Robotics as the company is not proving to be fit into the company’s other divisions while management sees better revenue prospects in other ventures.

If the latter is true then the sale marks a shift in Google’s attitude towards long term investments. That may mark a turning point in the company’s development.

Australia’s contempt for technology

The contempt shown towards the technology sector by Australian governments betrays a deeper problem in the Australian mindset

“The minister sends his regrets….”

Yesterday I commented how the Australian Tech Leaders event would be a good measure of the state of the country’s technology industry. Instead it illustrated the sheer contempt the nation’s political leaders hold the industry.

One of the government’s key platforms in the upcoming election is its Innovation Statement and the accompanying Ideas Boom so it wouldn’t have been expected that a minister or at least an informed backbencher would address a room full of technology journalists.

Instead the government drafted one of their local MPs, Fiona Scott, to make the short drive up the hill from her electorate to haltingly deliver a poorly written speech that focused on her local electorate issues.

To be fair to Ms Scott, the outer Sydney suburban seat she represents is a bellweather electorate which tends to swing between parties as government changes. It also happens to have a workforce that’s beginning to feel the effects of a shifting economy. Her focus on local issues is understandable.

However as a member of a government aspiring to drive a technology driven jobs boom and the representative of an electorate whose workforce is in transition, it is remarkable that Ms Scott is so poorly briefed on tech issues.

What’s even more remarkable is the contempt shown by the government towards the country’s technology sector, a long standing problem in Australian society but particularly stark with the current administration given the Prime Minister’s fine words on the topic.

One of the saddest things about Australia’s squandered boom is how the nation turned inwards at the beginning of the Twenty-First century and decided to ignore the global technological shifts.

The contempt shown by the current government towards the technology sector shows a much deeper problem in the Australian mindset, if the country is to rely on more than its luck in the current century then it’s essential to shake off that way of thinking.

Amazon Web Services and the new rules of business

Amazon Web Service CTO Werner Vogels lists the lessons from a decade of AWS operations. These could be the new rules of business.

The one company that has driven both the adoption of cloud computing and the current tech startup mania is Amazon Web Services.

Later this week AWS celebrates its tenth birthday and Werner Vogels, the company’s Chief Technical Officer, has listed the ten most important things he’s learned over the last decade.

The article is a useful roadmap for almost any business, not just a tech organisation, particularly in the importance of building systems that can evolve and understanding that things will inevitably break.

Importantly Vogels flags that encryption and security have to be built into technology, today they are key parts of a product and no longer features to be added later.

Most contentious though is Vogels’ view that “APIs are forever”, that breaking a data connection causes so much trouble for customers that it’s best to leave them alone.

Few companies are going to take that advice, particularly in a world where changing business needs mean APIs have to evolve.

There’s also the real risk for businesses that their vendors will depreciate or abandon APIs leaving key operational functions stranded, this could cause major problems for organisations in a world that’s increasingly automated.

Vogel’s commitment to maintaining APIs may well prove to be a competitive advantage for Amazon Web Services in their competition with Microsoft Azure, Google and an army of smaller vendors.

Werner Vogel’s lessons are worth a read by all c-level executives as well as startup founders looking to build a long term venture, in many ways they could define the new rules of business.

The cost of media disruption

The price workers pay when an industry is disrupted shouldn’t be understated

What happens to journalists when no one wants to print their words anymore?

The Bill Moyers website has striking accounts of sexism, ageism and exploitation of younger journalists as the industry deals with its Twentieth Century business model collapsing.

Much of the dislocation Dale Maharidge describes could have been written about factory workers twenty years ago and will be probably written about a whole range of white collar occupations over the next two decades. The disruption being felt by journalists is not unique to the media industry.

While the media industry struggles to find the 21st Century’s David Sarnoff, the human cost is real. The price workers pay when an industry is disrupted shouldn’t be understated.

 

Disrupting professional services

Stripe’s US business registration service shows how professional services companies are under threat

As Irish immigrants, the founders of San Francisco payments company Stripe, John and Patrick Collison, know too well the difficulties of setting up a US based corporation.

So the company establishing Stripe Atlas, a service to help foreign entrepreneurs set up their US presence makes sense and the payments services bundled into the package may also generate business for the brothers.

The Stripe Atlas service also illustrates the challenges facing professional services businesses as the service automates many of the bread and butter tasks that were good earners for lawyers and accountants.

Until recently it was thought those ‘higher level’ occupations would escape disruption, now it appears software will eat the professions as well.

Restructuring the media

How the BBC is restructuring itself in the face of technological change is a lesson for many other businesses, not just media companies.

The British Broadcasting Corporation could be about to abolish its radio and television divisions reports the London Telegraph. This could be a pointer for how many other businesses will revamp themselves in the face of digital disruption.

As audiences change, the organisation’s Director General is looking at restructuring the 94 year old broadcaster into new divisions based around content rather than platform.

The demarcation between radio and television, let alone the Internet, made sense in the 1950s as the cost of production was high and the specific skill sets to get a radio program to air were very different to those of television.

Now with increased automation many, although not all, of those differences have vanished and with the internet changing distribution methods it’s harder to justify duplicating production.

Another important aspect of the BBC’s mooted restructure is streamlining of management, with the Telegraph noting how this would be an opportunity to cull the executive ranks.

The changes will lead to a new round of senior executive departures, as Lord Hall seeks to flatten the corporation’s labyrinthine management structures, and reinvest more money on-screen.

How the BBC is restructuring itself in the face of technological change is a lesson for many other businesses, not just media companies.

Legislating for innovation

Can bureaucrats define innovation? It seems Australia is about to find out as the country’s regulators struggle to decide what businesses will be eligible for taxation concessions under the government’s Innovation Statement.

That bureaucrats are tasked to identify what businesses are worthy ‘innovators’ is worrying for those of us who hoped the new Australian Prime Minister would end two decades of managerial complacency.

Adding to the ‘business as usual’ under the revamped government was a speech by the Minister for Mineral Resources yesterday describing the glowing future of the nation’s resource industry in face of continuing Chinese demand.

While Josh Frydenberg was delivering that speech to Canberra’s National Press Club, the world’s biggest shipping line, Maersk, reported an 83% drop in profits in the face of slowing global trade and collapsing Chinese commodity demand.

Australia’s long term economic policy of riding on the back of a never ending Chinese resources boom is looking shaky, and the luxury of a tax system that favours property speculation over productive investment is increasingly looking unsustainable.

Rather than looking at ways to define ‘innovative’ companies, Australian governments would be better served levelling the playing field to attract investment into new businesses, inventions and productive infrastructure.

Just as a narrow group of tech startups are important so is investment into new plant and equipment for agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. Encouraging workers to attain new skills should also be an objective of the tax system, instead of disallowing school fees and book costs.

The treatment of taxpayers’ education costs versus that of property speculation expenses speaks volumes about the current priorities of the Australian tax system.

For a government wanting to encourage productive, employment generating investment and building a first world economy that’s competitive in the 21st Century, the first priority should be to put all forms of investments on the same footing.

Asking a committee of well meaning bureaucrats to create an artificial group of ‘innovative businesses’ seems unlikely to help Australian workers and businesses meet the challenges of a digital century.

Crisis management for startups

What does a startup do when it’s faced with a PR crisis?

What does a startup do when it’s faced with a PR crisis? Recently Australia witnessed a spectacular example of what not to do when Sociabl, a startup that promised to connect users with celebrities, flamed out spectacularly.

Sociabl promised to connect punters over video with celebrities for a fee ranging from $500 up to $100,000 for individuals like Richard Branson with half the money going to a charity of the celebrities choice.

The app and its two young founders had plenty of coverage and all looked good until one of them, Brandon Reynolds, appeared on prime time evening show A Current Affair to spruik the service.

Unfortunately for Brandon he was interviewed by one of the celebrities listed by his app and the host, singer and presenter David Campbell, had never heard of the service.

A true PR disaster

Needless to say the interview didn’t go well with poor Brandon meekly declaring at one point “we’re not a major fraud!” You can watch the train wreck on the show’s website.

To compound the problem Brandon then wrote a defiant Medium post – later removed – accusing the program of slandering him and posting a pile of correspondence with the various celebrities’ agents.

Earlier this week I was invited to join a panel consisting of a journalist, a startup founder and a lawyer who also runs a startup along with myself we looked at how a startup can avoid a Sociabl like disaster. The lessons from it were clear.

Stop digging

Rule one in crisis management is when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop making it deeper.

Brandon clearly missed that memo and his defiant post that accused the journalists and the network of defaming him only antagonised them. What’s worse, the attempt to throw the celebrities’ agents under the bus was only going to take him and his business partners into a new world of pain.

So when things are looking bad, stopping and taking a deep breath is the first thing to do. The absolute wrong action is lashing out publicly at media, advisors or business partners.

It’s probably not a crisis

There is no doubt Sociabl’s debacle was a crisis, but it’s an outlier and a situation that few startups or any businesses will find themselves. In most cases what appears to be a crisis is just a minor hiccup that looks like a big problem because you’re too close to it.

Most startup founders and small business owners are working hard, under stress and deeply emotionally engaged in their business. It’s understandable to over-react to what is often a minor, or even imagined, crisis.

By stopping digging, or panicking, and taking that deep breath you have the opportunity to get things into perspective. It’s also the opportunity to take advice.

Talk to your friends

One of the first things any new business should set up is an advisory board or panel. Helping with a crisis is exactly what those advisors are for. Talk to them and get their wisdom, usually they’ll bring some perspective and more experienced friends will know how to manage a crisis (if it exists).

An important aspect of asking for advice is actually taking what’s offered. One way of burning bridges with friends and trusted advisors is to ignore their advice after asking for it.

If you have investors then talk to them, particularly if they have seats on your board. They’ll want to know about the crisis anyway and if they’re experienced may well be the best people to help.

Get professional help

For early stage startups this tip isn’t much use as good PR and crisis communications professionals quite rightly charge a lot of money for their services.

If you do have raised substantial money however, then a good PR agency should be one of the first professional services engaged with the funds. Sociabl claimed to have raised $210,000 which probably wasn’t enough to get a good one.

Had Sociable engaged a competent and professional PR firm, it’s likely they would have avoided the disaster on A Current Affair.

Rally the fans

If you have loyal customers, user or supporters then a crisis is the time to get them onside by engaging honestly on the web, through email and on social media. Be honest, be open and be quick to reply.

If you have made a genuine mistake then it’s likely your fans will support you as long as you come clean. All bets are off however if you’re ripping those loyal supporter off.

Have a plan

Early in your business do a risk analysis to identify where things could go wrong and have a plan to deal with known risks. Hopefully you’ll never use it but it’s handy to have when something foreseeable happens.

Don’t be a fraud (of any size)

“We’re not a major fraud” will go down as one of the greatest lines of the current startup mania and one that Brandon Reynolds will struggle to live down for many decades.

At this stage I should point out I don’t believe Reynolds and Sociabl were a fraud of any size – he and his team simply didn’t understand how the world of celebrity engagement and the media work.

The key lesson is don’t be dishonest. Only make claims you can justify and promises you can deliver. Hell hath no fury like customers, investors or journalists who believe they have been misled.

For those raising money through crowd sourcing this is an important point as overstated claims and missed delivery dates will not only cause a crisis but see loyal supporters desert you.

More importantly, a crisis brought on by dishonesty may get the attention of the authorities if you’ve breached consumer law with your customers or securities regulations with your investors. Don’t be evil is a good philosophy for a young business.

In summary, the best advice for a startup in avoiding a crisis is not to put get in the position where you might find yourself in one however sometimes things are outside your control, when they do take a deep breath and talk to your friends.

Don’t mess with Elon Musk

Elon Musk shows the power of being the boss

Criticise Tesla’s launch parties and your car order may be cancelled, reports The Guardian.

Stewart Alsop, an Californian venture capitalist, wrote an open letter to Tesla’s founder Elon Musk claiming the launch of the Tesla X was ‘a disgrace’.

Musk responded by cancelling Alsop’s Tesla order.

There’s a range of arguments about the customer always being correct, the customer’s right to criticise a product or the risks of making online comments but what it definitively shows is the power of being the seller of something people want.

I suspect Stewart Alsop will get his Tesla eventually, but the boss will make him squirm.