Paul Wallbank

Dec 092011
 
the online world can be a playground but social media can hurt a business

This article originally appeared as The Business Playground on Smart Company.

Last week, I was lucky to be invited to talk about digital citizenship with school kids and their parents in the Griffith area.

The concept of “digital citizenship” is pretty simple – your behaviour online should be no different from how you’re expected to conduct yourself in the playground or business world.

When talking to some of the parents about the issues their kids face, it stuck me just how seriously most of the concepts like being accountable for your behaviour, safe computing and avoiding bullying are as applicable as much to business as the schoolyard.

Bullying in the workplace is pretty common and – as the tragic case of a young waitress who killed herself after being bullied at a Melbourne café shows – employers are directly responsible if they don’t control it.

While the Melbourne case didn’t have a digital aspect, what employees put up about their co-workers on social media sites or on blogs or in emails can be bullying as well.

Making things worse when social media or the web is involved is that most of the evidence is in writing and difficult to erase.

Safe computing, such as creating strong passwords and not sharing them, is one important part of being safe online.

Just as kids get into trouble by sharing their passwords with their friends, so too do businesses that common login details for their key systems and services.

Some weeks ago there was the story of a Texas waterworks that was hacked because their systems had a simple password.

No doubt the login was kept simple to make things easy for staff and management, just like a 12-year-old sharing their Minecraft or Moshi Monster accounts with their big brother or best friend.

Being accountable for your behaviour is probably something both kids and business people struggle with; just as kids don’t understand that taunting their friends through a Facebook page has real life consequences, many managers and entrepreneurs forget that laws and professional standards apply online as much as they do in any other area.

Of course in business, it’s not just ourselves that can cause problems – our staff can get us in trouble too. Employees need to know that upsetting co-workers, customers, suppliers and competitors is unprofessional and can cost them their jobs.

Having a staff acceptable computer use policy makes it clear employees are responsible for work related comments they make even on their personal accounts outside of working hours is now essential for all enterprises.

In many ways, business is just like being in the playground. It’s usually fun, but when things go wrong it can be painful in many ways.

Just as schools are on the look out for digital trouble among students, watch out for similar pain points among your staff.

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Dec 082011
 
how easy is it to make money online

“One day I’m going to buy a whole pile of junk PCs from a company that’s gone bust and sell them at an auction like this,” said Mark, an old business partner, as I lost a bet that a group of almost valueless laptops wouldn’t be sold for more than $10 each.

The media release behind yesterday’s article on protecting USB data found on attracted criticism about Cityrail’s attitude towards privacy – which is fair enough as good manners, if not privacy laws, dictate you’d wipe someone else’s data before giving a drive away.

More notable in the IT News article is the comment that Paul Ducklin, chief technology officer at Sophos, “was shocked when the auction price was nearly twice the average retail value of the USBs.”

Paying over the odds for second hand technology is a trap many fall for, the average consumer doesn’t comprehend just how much technology depreciates or the risks, such as malware or defective hardware, that could be found when you finally take that computer bought at auction home.

The main attraction of auctions is that people believe they are getting a deal, the idea things were dirt cheap on eBay drove the service’s growth for much of its first ten years.

Of course that hasn’t been the case for some time and many people paid a lot of money for junk they didn’t need even when things were “cheap”.

The only way to really get a deal at auction is to know the retail price, then factor in realistic depreciation and the risk of buying a dud.

My rule of thumb at those IT auctions I used to attend with Mark was that when the bids passed more than a third of the retail price, people were overpaying. I rarely bought anything except office chairs and the odd filing cabinet.

I haven’t heard from Mark for a while, I suspect his business plan didn’t work out when he overpaid for some surplus equipment from a liquidator.

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Feb 032011
 
stock investments.

Goldman Sachs’ recent $500 million investment in Facebook that values the entire business at fifty billion dollars raises the question, can a business that was founded in college dormitory seven years ago really be worth that sort of money?

It is possible Facebook is worth that sort of money, but to figure out if it really is, we have to crunch some numbers. So here is a back of an envelope calculation.

Learning from others

The first thing we need to look at is similar examples, the closest comparison is Google who were launched on the stockmarket shortly after Facebook were founded and today have a market worth of $195  billion.

So Facebook’s investors are valuing the business at about ¼ of Google’s size. Yahoo’s stock analysis of Google allows us to look at the rough numbers.

Income

Currently, Google is earning 29.3 Billion and making a profit of 8.5billion for a Price to Equity (P/E) of 23.26.

To justify a 50 billion dollar valuation on similar rations, Facebook would have to make around 2 billions dollars profit on revenues of $8 billion .

Facebook is reported to have made $1.2 billion in sales with $355 millon profit in the first nine months of 2010. If we extrapolate that, crudely assuming no revenue growth in the last 3 months, we come to 2020 earnings of $1.6 billion and roughly $450 million profit.

So Facebook has to grow revenues and profit by a factor of five, based on the same ratios as Google, to achieve the $50bn valuation. Where could this come from?

Advertising revenue

The bulk of Facebook’s current revenue comes from advertising, according to Inside Facebook in 2009 all but $10million of their $660 million earnings came from one form of advertising or another.

Online advertising is going to continue to grow spectacularly, a 2010 Morgan Stanley research paper illustrated (on slide 25 of the previous link) how advertisers will have to increase spending onling by $50 billion to match the Internet’s share of media consumption.

It’s a fair assumption that Facebook, as the biggest social medial platform, will get a large slice of that $50 billion. If Facebook were to capture 10% of the market’s growth, they’d achieve their valuation easily.

We should also consider that most of Facebook’s revenue is coming from the United States and they barely touched international markets, so there’s even more potential growth in their advertising revenue.

Games revenue

One of Facebook’s biggest growth opportunities comes from the games. Games like Farmville and Mafia Wars are proving popular with the user base; Zynga, the developer of Farmville, itself has a projected market capitalisation of $5.8 billion.

The global games business is valued at $105 billion dollars and much of this market is moving to web based, online platforms. Should Facebook based games grab 10% of that market, the platform’s 30% cut would see another 3 billion go into Facebook’s revenue, most of which would be profit.

The credits market

Related to the games market is the sale of credits for purchases of games and other features like virtual, and real, gifts and products.

It’s almost impossible to quantify what that market would be but already credits have gone on sale in US stores like WalMart and Best Buy and the virtual world site Habbo Hotel reports 2010 credit revenues of 4.5 million Euros on a user base that is a fraction of Facebook’s size.

So is Facebook worth $50 Billion?

Facebook’s fifty billion dollar valuation is feasible. That’s not to say there aren’t risks, it’s possible Facebook could turn out to be another fad like Myspace or that users might decide to value their privacy over Facebook’s benefits.

While it’s not an investment you’d like to see your grandmother in as a safe source of retirement income, for risk tolerant Russian fund managers and high income clients of Goldman Sachs, it’s a punt worth taking.

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Jul 182010
 
Kennedy Nixon Presidential Debate 1960

Just as the Internet gives businesses the opportunity to speak directly with their customers and staff, the net allows politicians to talk to their constituencies without going through the mass media gatekeepers that have controlled political communications for most of the last century.

However there are risks with this as the Internet increases accountability and magnifies gaffes; a mistake in a remote electorate that may not have been even noticed by the press corps ten years ago can today be the lead story on the evening news thanks to an audience member with a mobile phone.

Communicating on the Internet is more than just a website, a Facebook page, YouTube channel or a Twitter account.

This article uses the word “Internet” rather than “social media” or “social networking” deliberately — while every social platform and online communication channel brings its own unique set of circumstances, there are common themes all these platforms possess;

1. You’ve put it in writing

As soon as a tweet, blog post or email is sent or published, it is in writing against your name. Nothing is deniable. So if you wouldn’t put something in a letter, don’t put it on the Internet.

2. Everything you do online is permanent

You can delete an email, tweet or blog post after sending it but there will always be a copy somewhere. Nothing on the net is ever completely deleted. So think before pressing send.

3. All online comment is publishing

Prior to the Internet, publishing involved owning or hiring a printing press, radio station or television studio. Today anyone with a $300 computer or mobile phone is a publisher. Every time you press “submit” you are publishing a comment with all the same potential consequences as writing an article or campaign flier.

4. Off line rules apply online

Many people on the net have the idea rules don’t apply online. Those people are wrong, defamation and electoral rules apply online as much as they do offline. What’s more, the Internet magnifies errors and dishonesty. Even if you haven’t strictly broken the rules, you still may find an ethical lapse could sink your campaign.

The difference when you do it online is that the record is permanent and available world wide, that’s why it’s called the World Wide Web.

5. The net makes copying easy

In a digital world, all content is endlessly reproducible, so your material can be copied, altered and distributed easily. This was a lesson learned by a bunch of London lawyers ten years ago. Learn from their mistakes and use it to your advantage.

6. Nothing is off the record

Everything you write on the Internet is on the record; an offhand Twitter comment is just as official as a press conference or media release. So keep the smart comments off line. If you’re going to be rude about someone, don’t put it in writing on the net even if the message is supposed to be private.

7. Online private and public domains are blurred

While there are private channels on the Internet, the boundaries between them are not always clear. For instance a Facebook group can be seen by anyone who is a member, so postings in that group can be passed on from there.

It’s also easy to make mistakes; a private Twitter message could go public if you hit the wrong key. There’s no shortage of horror stories where people have been included on email messages that were never intended for them.

8. Be transparent and consistent

As a research tool, the Internet gives media, the voters and your opponents the opportunity to quickly verify every statement you make.

If you are going say the dollar collapsed when your opponents were in government, check this really did happen. If your party promises a can of baked beans in every household then details of The National Baked Bean Access Program have to be online.

9. The Internet loves a vacuum

Should you leave questions unanswered, or if you make an empty promise with no supporting information, then you’ll find no shortage of people on the net willing to fill the blanks for you. Leaving people guessing is the quickest way to get an issue spinning out of control.

10. Be careful of delegating

It’s tempting to give the job of social media expert to the youngest staffer or volunteer in the office, however you are responsible for everything written. So if you delegate, think carefully. Blaming an over enthusiastic intern or contractor is rarely a good look even if it is true.

A good example of this was Hugh Jackman’s Sydney Opera Center gaffe which was clearly a Tweet from someone who wasn’t Australian. While for Hugh it was a minor embarrassment, a similar mistake could derail a political campaign or career.

11. Think before you tweet

The best measure for posting on the internet is never to say anything you’d be embarrassed to explain to your mother. In a political context, don’t say anything you’d be uncomfortable justifying to your party leader, whip or the host of a radio talk back program.

12. Engage with your audience

You need to be adding value, while mediums like Facebook, YouTube and Twitter are quite effective for getting out prepared material, that isn’t using those channels to their full potential. The word “social” in “social media” indicates how they have become communities where people exchange views and participate. Your Facebook pages and Twitter streams should be engaging voters and acting as a rallying point for supporters. Think of them as a virtual 24/7 town hall meeting.

13. The net is a big playground

The Internet is a perfect democracy. Everyone who chooses to participate has a voice.

This means the informed, engaged and intelligent have an equal voice with the ignorant, deranged and obsessed. While it is important to listen to what the lunatic fringe have to say, you don’t have to engage with them.

14. You are judged by your company

Be careful of joining online groups or being too closely associated with individuals who may be an embarrassment. Facebook is particularly bad for this as you’ll get many offers to join groups. Resist most of the invitations as even the funny ones could backfire.

15. Play nice

On the net, you should never get into a fight. The classic Dilbert cartoon strip once said “don’t argue with an idiot, they just drag you down to their level where they beat you with their logic.”

The Internet is the greatest invention for idiots, giving them a forum to exercise their ideas and find like minded fools. Don’t join, argue or engage with them, you’ll only encourage them.

16. Don’t get clever

One thing the Internet doesn’t do very well is humour, sarcasm and irony. So be very careful with the smart comments as what would be a funny off-hand line at a press conference or walk around could be totally misinterpreted online.

Another problem is context which is easily lost on the net; be careful with statements that could be taken poorly by those not aware of the surrounding circumstances. This is particularly true with Twitter where it can be difficult for bystanders to understand the entire online exchange.

17. The web is worldwide

There’s no such thing as an intimate chat online. Everything you do could be passed on. You may only have a thousand Facebook friends or Twitter followers but if each of them has a similar following, that’s an immediate audience of a million people. Treat each tweet, post or update as if it is going out on the Morning Show or 7.30 report.

Similarly, some political organisers think the web is best for rallying the troops. That’s a dangerous idea as many teenagers have discovered when a horde of gatecrashers have turned up to their Facebook advertised parties. Your political opponents are probably taking as much interest in your posts as your supporters.

18. Don’t deceive

The New Yorker once said “on the Internet no-one knows you’re a dog.” So it’s tempting to set up anonymous accounts and webpages to discredit your opponent or derail their campaigns.

In reality, your posts in dog food forums will probably give you away and all but the most sophisticated hoaxer will leave clues in their digital footprint. Even if you cover your tracks, being mischievous can bring you unstuck.

You need to also keep your volunteers and staff aware of this; by all means let them engage, promote and defend your positions but make it clear that underhand and childish stunts will hurt more than help.

19. The net does not replace other channels

The digital natives will tell you old media is dying and only the Internet matters while older journos will mutter darkly into their beers about the net being a passing fad. Both are wrong.

Mainstream media and the Internet increasingly rely on each other as sources and distribution channels. Tools like Twitter help journalists find sources and spread stories while the news papers and TV shows provide material for Twitter and Facebook users.

Where the Internet works particularly well is enhancing the “traditional’ channels of community meetings, media appearances, fliers and articles.  What you can’t say in a 15 second TV ad or 500 word article can be expanded on and enhanced online because you aren’t subject to other peoples’ restrictions and guidelines.

20. Experiment and learn

In a risk adverse world it’s easy to ask why you should bother with the Internet as most voters are still getting their information through mass media and advertising spending is still largely used for broadcast ads.

The reason you need to be on the Internet is because your constituency is moving online and the broadcast journalists are online. You need to be listening to them and to understand how issues are developing and how these channels are being used.

As these tools develop, they are going to become more powerful. The politician who ignores them today and misunderstands how the medium works could find themselves being remembered in the same way Richard Nixon was in 1960.

Our society is increasingly using the Internet to debate and develop new ideas. If you hope to be part of those ideas, you need to be part of the debate.

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Aug 082008
 

Last January I commented on Commander’s problems and made the point I thought they were doomed. Today they appointed official receivers.

I’ve made a comment on my Cranky Tech blog about the tragedy that companies with brilliant assets like Commander managed to squander them, but there’s many other lessons for Australian businesses which I’m mulling over at the moment and will post here later.

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Jul 242008
 

ABC IP TV logoWe’ve heard the promise of delivering TV over the Internet and now the ABC will follow the BBC with an IP TV service.

Coupled with the increased downloads we’ll see from the uptake of smart phones, we’re seeing the end of most Australian ISP’s business model of soaking users with excess use fees.

iiNET has done a deal with the ABC that traffic won’t be counted for their customers using the ABC’s service and you’d have to wonder how long it will be until others offer it.

The interesting thing with IP TV in Australia is just how badly the commercial TV stations are falling behind.

A good example is Channel 7 where their tie up with AOL should have made this easy, but they seem to have lost it. The other two networks have nothing.

Under the current pricing structures it’s difficult to see IP TV taking off in Australia, but this will change. The big question is just how visionary Australian Internet providers are and just how the commercial TV stations will deal with the challenge.

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Jul 172008
 

Reports the iPhone has triggered a rise in mobile Internet use in the US raises an interesting question on its effects on the Australian market.

Early this year Three Mobile touted their own report which found Australians were reluctant to do surfing the net on their phones due to the risk of copping a monster bill.

Sadly this belief is quite fair when you see some plans charging up to $3,000 a Gb if you go over a 5Mb monthly allowance.

While Optus has sweetened their plans slightly by offering better usage allowances on their iPhone plans, all the providers have done little to improve their mobile phone data offerings.

This stingy attitude to data by the Australian mobile operators is going to continue to cramp the growth in the Australian mobile Internet market.

Until one of the players drops their restrictive plans and outrageous excess use charges Australians will quite rightly shy away from embracing mobile web surfing.

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Jun 192008
 

Apple’s new store in central Sydney is certainly impressive. Ron Johnston’s opening speech mentioned how it’s their second biggest store after London and has the largest plate glass windows in the world.

Sydney Apple Store interiorThe plate glass windows are the key to how this store works. It showcases Apple’s products beautifully and invites passers by to step inside and play with system.

That openness extends to the fact you can play with the systems. One of the things that’s always frustrated me with computer stores is that they don’t display what the systems are capable of. The Apple store does.

Also notable is the stock display; there’s no stack ‘em high clutter that’s typical of many computer stores. The stock is laid out beautifully and takes advantage of the space.

The attention to detail is reflected in the staff as well. They are friendly, trained and knowledgeable. Again this differs from most computer stores where the staff are commission driven part timers.

All of this gives the store an atmosphere of restrained competence. These products that don’t need a hard sell.

Sydney Apple Store Genius BarOn the top floor is one of Apple’s masterstrokes: The Genius bar. It was mentioned that this is the biggest Genius Bar of any Apple store but I’m not sure about this. Once again, the geniuses were well trained and presented.

One impression I did have was this area was a bit spartan and I expect there’ll be more facilities like couches, water dispensers and possibly even a coffee vendor in this area for people waiting for their turn with trainers or geniuses. It could easily become a focal point for Mac fans to gather and simply talk Mac stuff.

Overall, the Apple Store is a very well thought out and set up operation, as it should be given Apple’s attention to detail and the fact this is the 215th Apple store.

It’s a great flagship for Apple’s Australian operations and is going to be very interesting to see the role the store plays in the iPhone release next month.

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Jun 112008
 

iphoneApple’s announcement the iPhone will be released in Australia through Optus and Vodafone sets the stage for a good fight in the mobile phone sector over the next twelve months.

Leaving Telstra out of the deal is going to put a lot of competitive pressure on the big T, but their advantages in brand name, market position and mobile coverage gives them plenty of scope to fight back.

Another interesting angle on this is the pricing. The $199 and $299 US dollar prices will probably translate to around half the price of the comparable Blackberry and a third of the Nokia smartphones. This is really going to make the incumbents sweat.

So we’re going to see some terrific deals over the next few months and the carriers and handset manufacturers jostle for space in the market.

If you’re looking at buying a mobile phone the best advice is to wait a month or two.

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May 232008
 

Telstra’s new bundled plans offering a free laptop with their wireless plans is a good move to improve take up of wireless Internet.

It’s surprising none of the providers haven’t offered these deals sooner given entry level laptops are cheaper than mobile phones and these plans have proved an resounding success in the mobile industry.

As with all these deals, the devil is in the small print. You may be getting a “free” laptop but the cost of the wireless broadband will easily make up for this. The total price of the plan over the 36 month contract is $3,564 which would buy you a lot of laptop.

36 months is a long contract and we can expect to see prices drop and better deals appear as the other companies respond.

Also, a $700 laptop is a pretty basic beast many business users will find doesn’t meet their needs.

Overall, this is an interesting deal that’s going to radically change the business market. However I’d recommend most users sit and wait to see what other deals become available.

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