Confessions of a serial creditor

When a business goes bust both the creditors and the proprietors are often the victims

One of the sad facts of business is that ventures go broke, and when they do there’s a trail of former customers, suppliers and employees that end up out of pocket.

The recent appointment of administrators to the recently listed Australian electronics retailer Dick Smith Holdings leaving thousands of gift card holder – including the writer of this blog – out of pocket is a good example of this.

Over twelve years of running a service business having customers go bust was a regular thing. Luckily this wasn’t frequent as once the assets had been liquidated and divided among creditors one was lucky to get five cents for every dollar owed.

Early warning signs

When a customer did go broke it was rarely unexpected. With long standing clients the payment times would blow out and often a business going bust showed the signs of poor maintenance, declining stock levels and distracted management long before the money ran out.

The other notable thing was the failing company’s staff were often on your side. At one company, a whisky broker that went under owing millions to creditors who’d effectively bought ‘time share’ in liquor, the receptionist insisted in paying for some of the work we’d done out of the petty cash.

Five years later the remaining outstanding invoices were settled and, as expected, we received almost nothing apart from the entertainment of reading the administrator’s reports detailing the struggles of angry creditors trying to get their drinking money back in the face of what had almost certainly been a scam.

Ethical proprietors

Most business owners that go broke aren’t crooks however, most are honest people who made bad decisions or were just plain unlucky. Often these people suffer far more than the creditors.

One pleasant experience we had with a failed customer was a dance studio on Sydney’s Lower North Shore. The business went broke, the proprietor fled to her native New Zealand and I resigned myself to never seeing the outstanding thousand dollars.

Two years later the formal liquidation proceedings had finished and unsurprisingly we received none of the monies owing. A few months after a cheque from the business owner arrived for the entire outstanding amount with a note apologising.

A tough life

While the former dance studio owner probably broke the rules in paying back the debts outside the official channels, she illustrated most failed business people are good people who were caught out by their own mistakes or being on the wrong side of lady luck.

Business failure for those running startups or smaller enterprises often comes at a high personal financial, mental and relationship cost so it’s not surprising those sinking trying to hold on later than they should and then take personal responsibilty for the damages they cause.

Sadly the same doesn’t hold true at the corporate level and in the case of Dick Smith Holdings the executives, the institutional shareholders frittering aways investors’ money, the private equity swashbucklers and the staid corporate managers responsible for the firm’s failure probably won’t see a hiccup to their stellar careers.

The moral for anyone in business remains never to be too exposed to any one creditor. Regardless of how well a client’s management means, when things go bad it’s unlikely you’ll see most of the money you’re owed.

Working in the gig economy

The motivations of demand economy contractors are varied and not without suspicion towards the services that employ them.

Just what do people think about the on-demand, or gig, economy? A survey by public relations company Burston-Marsteller looked at those who use and provide services for companies like Uber, AirBnB and Instagram.

Unsurprisingly the majority of users are have positive experiences with on-demand services which allows them to access product they couldn’t afford otherwise.

More important are the views of the contractors, and those who are doing these jobs for the flexibility are matched by those who’d rather have full time employment but can’t find a role.

Strikingly, the longer a contractor has worked for one of these services the more likely they are to find the company’s practices exploitative and more than half believe the platforms are gaming the regulations.

Overall, it shows participants in the ‘sharing economy’ have no illusions about the caring aspects of the services that employ them, unlike many of those touting the benefits from the sidelines.

How the taxi industry lost its advantages

The struggles of the taxi industry show regulatory barriers won’t keep out competitors

In San Francisco, the Yellow Cab Company is filing for bankruptcy in the face of mounting insurance costs and competition from services like Uber and Lyft.

For most of the Twentieth Century, having a government controlled market was good for cab companies and those owning the rights to own taxis. In most places though it wasn’t good for drivers and passengers however as wages fell along with the quality the service.

In most cities, the taxi operators didn’t care as their industry was protected and customers didn’t have much choice. The problem was compounded by supine regulators who saw protecting the interests of industry incumbents as taking precedence over making sure operators provided a safe, reliable service.

With the arrival of Uber, this changed and passengers started voting with their wallets. Interestingly, despite Uber X and Uber Pool being illegal in most place, regulators and their political masters found public opinion was firmly against the taxi companies and owners who’d exploited them for so long.

To the horror of the taxi operators, they found the community and the market had shifted against them leaving them exposed to changes they had never expected. Now operators like San Francisco’s Yellow Cabs are paying the price for not focusing on providing a decent service.

For other industries, particularly those which have some sort of barrier to entry through government regulation, the taxi industry’s woes are an important lesson – focusing on service is the key to staying in business, not relying on keeping competitors out.

Saving Twitter

Twitter needs focused management that understands the service if it is to survive

Twitter is in trouble, its share price has fallen 70% in the past two years and the service is not gaining new users. To halt the stagnation, CEO Jack Dorsey is reportedly considering ditching the 140 character limit.

Commentator Josh Bernoff suggests playing with character limits will do little to address Twitter’s lack of momentum which is almost certainly correct given the underlying problems at the service.

The one most desired feature by Twitter users is the ability to edit their posts, although the New York Times points out this may not be a good thing, another popular change would be for the service to crack down on abusive behaviour.

Stagnant management

It seems however that Twitter’s management can’t make those changes and this is understandable given the company’s executives not understanding how the service is used and their desperate obsession to justifying its stock valuation which, despite falling 70% over the past two years, is still $14 billion.

Justifying that stock valuation with no clear path to monetising the service is a paralysing problem which means other useful changes aren’t being made while the company still embarrassingly cosies up to sports, pop and movie stars in the hope their fame will bring advertiser dollars to the platform.

For Twitter the solution is to accept they aren’t a fourteen billion dollar company which would take the pressure off the executive team to find unsustainable ways to justify that valuation and instead focus management’s efforts on improving the user experience.

Making Twitter useful

To make the service more useful, management has to understand how Twitter is used which means finding experienced and capable leaders who also use the service.

Adding features that allow users to make some changes to tweets and lists would be a start and clamping down on the bullies, trolls and frauds to make it more friendly to new entrants would be a start. Creating an easy way for new users to find useful information would also help engagement and retention.

The most important task though is finding executives who actually use Twitter and have an understanding of social media instead of hiring from the tech, advertising and broadcasting industries without any regard of whether those individuals have ever used the service.

Twitter is a valuable service but it’s dying as management play games. If it is to survive, accepting it isn’t as big as it wants to be and finding leaders who understand why its users find it so useful is essential.

The limitations of algorithms

Companies like Facebook and Uber are finding there are limits to what computer algorithms can acheive

Are algorithms getting too complex asks Forbes Magazine’s Kalev Leetaru in an examination of how the formulas that are increasingly governing our lives have grown beyond the understanding of their creators.

With computer code now controlling most of the devices and processes we rely on in daily life, understanding the assumptions and limitations of  those programs and formulas becomes essential for designers, managers and users.

Leetaru cites the Apollo 13 malfunction and Volvo’s recent embarrassment where a self driving car nearly ran over a group of journalists however there’s no shortage of more tragic mistakes from the consequences of software design decisions, the crash of Air France 447 over the Atlantic Ocean with the loss of 228 lives where two pilots who stalled their plane due to misunderstanding the characteristics of their cockpit  is one recent sad example.

As business and government becomes more dependent on software, more risks will arise from managers not understanding the limitations of the algorithms they use in their business.

Similarly a range of industries to exploit the quirks of algorithm driven markets are developing, the Search Engine Optimisation business designed to exploit quirks in Google’s search algorithm is an established example but more will come to the fore as people find ways to profit by anticipating price movements.

However algorithms have a way to go before they fully take over, as Salon’s examination of Facebook’s news feed reveals a key part of the social media service’s deciding what appears on users screens are the decisions of around thousand ‘power users’.

The news feed algorithm had blind spots that Facebook’s data scientists couldn’t have identified on their own. It took a different kind of data—qualitative human feedback—to begin to fill them in.

While Facebook falls back on large focus groups to fill in the algorithm’s gaps, Uber has found a different problem in estimating driver arrival times where it’s currently not possible to accurately calculate estimated times of arrival in real time.

“The best way to minimise time differential issue is to communicate statistically expected time, which will result in almost always being different than actual (i.e. wrong), but will be less different/wrong on average,” says Uber CEO Travis Kalanick.

Uber and Facebook’s challenges with their algorithms illustrate there’s some way to go before all critical business functions can be handed over to software but as automation becomes standard in many areas, not least autonomous vehicles, the limitations of programs and the assumptions of programmers will become apparent.

Getting off the content hamster wheel

The bulk publishing model starts to fade and media companies’ focus returns to quality

We may have reached Peak Content suggests Kevin Anderson in The Media Briefing as media companies, social media services and sharing platforms flood the world with information, rendering a lot of what’s being produced by media companies effectively worthless.

For publishers trying to make money from advertising this has been the reality for the last decade as the market has been spread thinner as thousands of new channels have developed and the established players have doubled down on their efforts to churn out content.

To illustrate the content explosion Anderson cites Columbia Journalism Review’s 2010 feature The Hamster Wheel where Dean Starkman described the effect of media outlets’ focus on churning out content with a description of the Wall Street Journal’s output.

“According to a CJR tally using the Factiva database owned by the paper’s parent, News Corp., the Journal’s staff a decade or so ago produced stories at a rate of about 22,000 a year, all while doing epic, and shareholder-value-creating, work, like bringing the tobacco industry to heel. This year, theJournal staff produced almost as many stories—21,000—in the first six months.”

While that was bad enough new players were pumping even more content onto the interwebs as Anderson points out, in 2013 the Huffington Post put out 1,600 pieces a day from its 550 staffers and an uncounted army of unpaid bloggers.

The vast bulk of what is being put out is trash, in Huffington Post’s case well web optimised garbage, that adds no value to readers and is only attracting fractions of a penny per article. The model, as both Anderson and Starkman point out, is broken and no-0ne is paying much attention any more.

Fixing the broken attention model is what online travel site Skift are exploring as they rationalise their operations to focus on delivering more relevant content to their audience.

Skift’s co-founder Rafat Ali described how the company refocused on its core purpose of informing travel industry professionals about their sector and stopped regurgitating syndicated stories and those of less value.

We gave up chasing scale. We took out *all* goals on traffic on the site, for everyone. We could do this because we didn’t have tons of outside money pumping through our veins, and this was a useless pressure we created for ourselves in an effort to show the illusion of growth to investors. And since we weren’t chasing investors, we didn’t need to chase what they would consider scale. It was a vanity metric.

We cut back on spending any money on getting users through Outbrain/Facebook/Twitter. We cut back on the number of stories we were doing on a daily basis, on chasing the tail on disposable news stories. We also cut back on syndicating our stories — in which we put in a lot of effort at the start, publishing on NBC News, CNN, Quartz, Fox News, Business Insider, Mashable and many others, to zero effect on our revenues — and also cut back on publishing useless filler syndicated stories we got from a third party syndication service.

Chasing those ‘vanity metrics’ was killing Skift, just as it is for most of the publishing industry in the views of Starkman and Anderson.

While we’re still some way off finding the model that works for online publishing, Skift’s stripping back to the basics seems to be an important step in finding what’s profitable.

The biggest problem though facing the publishing industry is convincing consumers, or advertisers, of the value they are adding in a world of almost unlimited information. This is a challenge that many industries are going to face.

Replacing Japan’s workers with robots

Japan is leading the world in deploying workplace robots. Their lessons will be watched by many other societies.

Nearly half of Japan’s jobs could be done by computers, robots or artificial intelligence in the near future, says the Nomura Research Institute.

In working with Oxford University’s Martin Program on Technology and Employment, the Nomura Research Institute examined 601 job classifications that currently employ 42.8 million Japanese.

Using the Oxford University methodology, the Japanese researchers estimated more than two thirds of the roles could be automated with nearly half of all Japanese workers being potentially replaced by computers.

Previously the Martin program has estimated  47 per cent of the United States’ workforce and just over a third of Britain’s are vulnerable to similar changes. Anyone who’s visited or lived in Japan wouldn’t be surprised at the relatively high level of vulnerability given the degree of manual jobs still being done in Japanese society that were long ago lost in the rest of the western world.

For Japan, replacing workers with robots isn’t a bad option given the population is aging force and the nation is at best reluctant to import immigrants to address skills shortages. It’s not surprising the country is probably the most advanced at deploying robots in workplaces.

How this will work for an aging Japan that has to support an increasingly older population will be fascinating to see. For other western countries – or even China – facing similar pressures, the Japanese will be providing important lessons.

Value versus valuation

The story of Skift illustrates how businesses can add value without courting venture capital investors

“There are people who build media companies for valuation, then there are others who build media brands for value,” writes Skift c0-founder Rafat Ali in his account of how the business stopped worrying about raising venture capital and focused on bootstrapping the travel industry website.

Ali’s story of how Skift’s founders gave up on finding investors, refocused their business and found revenues to bootstrap the organisation is worth a read for anybody starting a venture, not just a tech or media startup.

Notable is Ali’s distancing Skift from the startup label, claiming it’s “a meaningless word that comes with too much baggage”.

The story of Skift is an interesting perspective on growing a business outside the current focus on external investors, instead focusing on the value it adds for customers, users and readers. Just as Skift went back to basics, many of us should also focus on how we and our businesses add value.

Silicon Valleys of the Twentieth Century

Dayton Ohio is an example of an industrial hub rising and falling, could Silicon Valley follow?

The rise and fall of industrial hubs is a topic that fascinates this blog and the excellent BBC and US National Public Radio series Six Routes to a Richer World discusses how countries as disparate as Germany, Brazil, China and the United States are carving their own paths to prosperity in the 21st Century.

In the US segment, the show looks at one of America’s industrial centres of last century – Dayton, Ohio.

The home of the Wright Brothers, Dayton also saw the invention of the cash register, air conditioner and even the self starting motor. In the early part of the Twentieth Century it held the most patents per capita of any US city and workers flocked to the region for high paying manufacturing job.

Manufacturing, and research, is largely gone from Dayton today and the question posed is could the successful cities of California’s Bay Area follow a similar path this Century.

Whether Silicon Valley and San Francisco fade will be a matter of historical forces that are difficult to see right now, but the likelihood can’t be underestimated.

Secrets of successful crowdfunding

Engaging with community is the key to successful crowdfunding Indiegogo finds

Crowdfunding site Indiegogo dissects 29,000 campaigns to find what the formula is for success in funding projects.

Their finding show longer campaigns, in excess of sixty days, do better and engaging with supporters are the keys to success.

That latter point isn’t surprising, if you’re looking the community to raise funds then keeping them informed and excited is essential.

As crowdfunding evolves, engaging with community is going to be essential to stand out from the pack. In some respects, this is exactly what crowdfunding originally promised.

Revitalising the telco smartcity party

Can AT&T spark life back into the telecommunication industry’s smartcity party?

AT&T is expected to announce a new smartcity strategy at next week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Three years ago we interviewed Barcelona’s deputy mayor Antoni Vives about the possibilities of the smart city. What was notable about his views was the emphasis on the social and ecological benefits of these technologies.

“Barcelona has to become a city of culture, creativity, knowledge but mainly fairness and well being,” Vives said. “I would love to see my city as a place where people live near where they work, I would love to see the city self sufficient in energy and it should be zero emission city.”

Vives’ point is essential in the smart cities discussion. While the gadgets and data analytics aspects are important, it’s the benefits to government and the city’s inhabitants that are essential.

Which is a problem for telecommunication providers and tech vendors looking to find new, high margin, markets as most of the products they are touting are the classic ‘solution looking for a problem’ that has been a future of the computer industry for decades.

Telcos are in a more difficult position as many of the smart cities are deploying their own wireless networks which compete with their own often expensive solutions, particularly M2M services that rely on devices having costly SIM cards fitted.

It’s hard not to think AT&T’s move is one of a desperate late comer to a party that’s already not living up to expectations, it will be interesting to see if their CES announcement sparks some life back into the smartcity discussion.

Startups feel the squeeze

As funding becomes tighter, startups fell the squeeze

A key factor in the unicorn startup valuations is the prospect of the company building a near monopoly. Over the years this is what’s driven the valuation of companies like Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

This is what underpins the valuations of companies like Uber and Lyft and their potential monopoly positions have been entrenched with ride sharing service Sidecar deciding to wind up.

In the food delivery space, things are more competitive and with no clear leader which makes things even more difficult for the companies operating in this space. High profile service Instacart yesterday announced its laying off recruiting staff and increasing delivery charges as it deals with a tighter market.

Instacart and Sidecar’s woes are an indicator of what’s to come for more of the tech startups which haven’t achieved some sort of profitability.