Tag: Nokia

Did Apple kill the Finnish economy?

The Finnish Prime Minister jokingly blames Apple for his economy’s problems, but the real challenges are familiar to all western countries.

Last week the Finnish Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb, raised eyebrows with his suggestion that Apple killed the country’s economy with the iPhone putting Nokia out of business and the iPad reducing global demand for paper.

The real reason for Finland’s immediate problems is a lack of diversity; any country dependent upon one or two businesses or industries is going to be vulnerable should markets move against them.

In the longer term though the problems facing Finland are similar to those across the western world; an aging population, shrinking workforce and tepid export markets.

Finland’s real problems are our problems. How the Nordic nation deals with them will provide some valuable lessons to us all.

Building tomorrow’s markets

As technology evolves, it gets harder to predict what customers will want in the future.

“If I’d asked my customers we’d have built a faster horse,” is a quotation often attributed, probably incorrectly, to Henry Ford.

The point of the quote is that asking today’s customers about tomorrow’s market is pretty pointless when new products change consumer behaviour.

Just as the farmer of 1906 had no inkling of how the motor car, truck and tractor would change their business, the cellphone user of 2006 had no idea of how the iPhone would change the way they used a phone and communicated with the world.

Which brings us to Nokia.

The Sami Consulting blog discusses how Nokia lost their lead in the cellphone business as the market migrated the Apple and later Android smartphones.

Nokia’s problem was they spoke to their customers about their existing mobile phone use rather than considered how the technology might evolve.

When the inventors of the touchscreen approached Nokia, the company carefully evaluated the technology, consulted their customers and decided it wouldn’t work for their products.

What does this story tell about foresight?  First, it shows that innovation creates futures that are fundamentally unpredictable. We do not have facts or data about things that do not exist yet.  When a mobile phone becomes an internet device with sensors, touch screens, and broadband access, it becomes a new thing.  If you ask your existing customers what they like, the answer will always be about incremental improvements.  When you ask about the future, the answer will always be about history.

In many ways Nokia were the beneficiaries of a transition effect, they took advantage of a brief period of technological change  and were caught flat footed when the technologies evolved further.

To be fair, it’s hard to see that change when you’re focused on incremental improvements.

The motor car turned out to define the Twentieth Century – even Henry Ford couldn’t have foreseen how the automobile would change society and the design of our communities.

Both the motor industry and smartphone industries are going through major change, particularly as the internet of everything sees the two technologies coming together.

One thing is for sure, how we use our phones and cars over the next fifty years will be very different to how we use them today.

Today marks a moment of reinvention

Regardless of what it means for the wider industry, Microsoft’s deal with Nokia means both companies have entered fundamentally different phases of their businesses.

In announcing the company will acquire Nokia’s mobile and devices business, Microsoft said “Today marks a moment of reinvention”.

This is certainly true, with the retirement of Steve Ballmer, Microsoft officially enters the post Bill Gates era and today’s announcement is an admission from Nokia that their moment as the world’s dominant mobile phone manufacturer is over.

What’s notable about the deal is what Microsoft doesn’t get — particularly Nokia’s maps service. While Microsoft gets a license to use Nokia’s mapping services, it leaves the Finnish company with a valuable asset and possibly leaves it as the only company capable of competing with Google in that market.

For Microsoft, acquiring the expertise of Nokia’s engineers shouldn’t be understated, although integrating 32,000 Nokia employees will test Microsoft’s management as this increases their workforce by a third.

Possibly the most fascinating part of Microsoft’s announcement though is the comment in the second paragraph of their media release.

Microsoft will draw upon its overseas cash resources to fund the transaction.

US technology companies have been struggling to deal with the massive profits they have accumulated offshore as part of their tax minimalisation strategy. What we may now be seeing is a wave of foreign takeovers as American companies start to reduce their offshore cash stashes without incurring domestic tax bills.

If that’s true, Microsoft’s agreement with Nokia may well indicate we’re about to see many more takeovers around the world .

Regardless of what it means for the wider industry, both Microsoft and Nokia have entered fundamentally different phases of their businesses.

Disrupting the incumbents

Industry incumbents like Nokia and Microsoft are finding their market positions disrupted as Apple, Hauwei and Samsung reinvent the marketplaces.

One of the truisms of modern business is that no incumbent is safe, Microsoft, Nokia and Hauwei are good examples of just how businesses that five years ago dominated their industries are now struggling with changed marketplaces.

In the last two days there’s been a number of stories on how the smartphone and computer markets are changing.

According to the Wall Street Journal’s tech blog, PC manufacturers are hoping Microsoft’s changes to Windows 8 reinvigorates the computer market.

Those hopes are desperate and somewhat touching in the face of a structural shift in the marketplace. These big vendors can wait for the Big White Hope to arrive but really they have only themselves to blame for their constant mis-steps in the tablet and smartphone markets.

Now they are left behind as more nimble competitors like Apple, Samsung and the rising wave of Chinese manufacturers deliver the products consumers want.

All is not lost for Microsoft though as Chinese telecoms giant Hauwei launches a Windows Phone for the US markets which will be available through Walmart.

Hauwei’s launch in the United States is not good news though for another failing incumbent – Nokia.

Nokia’s relationship with Microsoft seems increasingly troubled and the Finnish company is struggling to retain leadership even in the emerging markets which until recently had been the only bright spot in the organisation’s global decline.

Yesterday in India, Nokia launched a $99 smartphone to shore up its failing market position on the subcontinent.

For the three months to March, Nokia had a 23 percent share of mobile phone sales in India, the world’s second-biggest cellular market by customers, Strategy Analytics estimates. Three years ago it controlled more than half the Indian market.

India isn’t the only market where Nokia is threatened – in February Hauwei launched their 4Afrika Windows Phone aimed at phone users in Egypt, Nigeria, Kenya, Ivory Coast, Angola, Morocco and South Africa.

The smartphone market is instructive on how many industries are changing, almost overnight the iPhone changed the cell phone sector and three years later Apple repeated the trick with the iPad, in both cases incumbents like Motorola, Nokia and Microsoft found themselves flat footed.

As barriers are falling with cheaper manufacturing, faster prototyping and more accessible design tools, many other industries are facing the same disruption.

The question for every incumbent should be where the next disruption is coming from.

In fact, we all need to ask that question as those disruptions are changing our own jobs and communities.

I’m not paid to have doubts

What do you do when the CEO has no doubts?

The Seattle Times has an interesting interview with Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer this weekend where he discusses what has been one of the biggest years ever for his company.

Midway through the Seattle Times story there’s a telling exchange.

Q: What is Microsoft’s plan if Windows 8 doesn’t take off?

A: You know, Windows 8 is going to do great.

Q: No doubt at all?

A: I’m not paid to have doubts. (Laughs.) I don’t have any. It’s a fantastic product. …

There is no plan B – Windows Phone is running late and their hardware partner Nokia is looking more foolish every day. Last week not only did they flub the launch of their latest phone, but they also managed to alienate the world’s tech media at the event.

It’s nice not to have doubts, but from outside the comfortable corporate headquarters Microsoft looks like they are struggling in this space.

Steve Ballmer might be more credible if he did admit to doubts and at least hint there is a plan B in their smartphone strategy.

Companies need leaders with doubts – doubts about their strategy, about their managers, about the economy and – most importantly – about their own infallibility.

One of the worst aspects of 1980s management ideology was the myth of the CEO superstar. Too many good businesses have been destroyed, and too much damage done to the global economy, by senior executives who have believed in their own infallibility.

Some doubts might help a business, particularly when that company is struggling with some serious threats.

This is what happens when you rush things

Nokia’s Lumia 920 debacle shows why artificial deadlines don’t work

Nokia are going to release a smartphone with the best camera seen so far on a mobile phone.

Desperate for good news and positive coverage, Nokia decided to announce the Lumia 920 prematurely and their marketing people are forced to fake the videos and sample photos.

Then they get caught.

And instead of having the media fawning over the impressive features of the Lumia 920, Nokia are scorned. A particularly damaging thing in a fortnight where Amazon and Apple have major announcements.

The problem is giving yourself artificial milestones that can’t be met. People take shortcuts to meet those deadlines and debacles like Nokia’s are the result.

Artificial “drop dead dates” are the mark of panic by poor management. One wonders how long this can continue at Nokia.

Links of the day 15 May 2012

Today’s links are another diverse bunch ranging from how Nokia can save itself, the compelling story of a US execution and how a Unicorn harpooned a whale.

Today’s links are another diverse bunch ranging from how Nokia can save itself, the compelling story of a US execution and how a Unicorn harpooned a whale.

Russia Today’s Capital Account on JP Morgan’s “Unicorn Hedge” Fairytale Harpoons the London Whale.

A powerful story from Al-Jazeera – An Anatomy of an American Execution.

Giga Om looks at a cute way some online services are arbitraging how Facebook acts as a gatekeeper in displaying news. Only read this if you’re a serious search or social media geek.

You know an online sensation is well past its peak when big business starts piling in – Amex sets up a Groupon competitor.

Nokia’s Last Stand. Wired UK looks at how the former mobile phone giant can fight its way back to market leadership.

Ad Age on why YouTube is deliberately reducing web page views.

Canon Australia to stop publishing Recommended Retail Prices on their products. Is this an admission of an open market, or an effort to further muddy the retail waters?

Twitter starts sending out summary emails of friends’ postings. Will this work to drive engagement and create much needed revenue for the sharing platform?

Tomorrow, the blog will look at whether the London Olympics will really be a disaster and whether British business can capitalise on the event.

Locking in the mobile market

Where are the next challenges for a phone industry that’s re-invented itself?

Mobile phone carrier Vodafone yesterday announced its purchase of Cable and Wireless, the company that rolled out the telegraph and phone networks that connected Britain’s empire.

Vodafone’s purchase is one of the final phases of the telco industry’s long term restructure where customers – both home and business users – have switched from land lines to mobile devices.

It’s long been acknowledged the profit in this market lies in devices and data usage which is why Cable and Wireless steadily declined over the past quarter century.

While there’s good money to be made in running undersea cables, which is what C & W did, the big profit is in delivering the data over the “last mile” to the customer.

For most customers, that last mile is the radius around a cellphone base station.

In Australia, this is best illustrated by Telstra’s undisguised glee at being able to offload their legacy copper network and backbone services to the government owned National Broadband Network allowing the former land line monopoly to focus on the mobile, data customer.

That data aspect is important too, one of the big changes in telecommunications over the last 25 years has been the rise of data.

A quarter century ago, voice communications were the main traffic of these networks. For companies like Cable and Wireless, data was a profitable sideline with services like Telex and ISDN being lucrative business niches.

Those rivers of gold distracted incumbent telcos in the early years of the public Internet as they tried to protect those expensive data plans and discouraged customers from using the net.

Over time, a new breed of Internet Service Providers rose who could supply those data services customers wanted.

Ironically, the same thing has happened with mobile phone manufacturers and the rise of the smartphone. Unlike the incumbent telcos, they haven’t adapted.

The incumbents phone manufacturers like Nokia and Motorola missed the rise of data communications and the mobile web as the iPhone and Android devices delivered the portable utility that “dumb phones” couldn’t deliver.

For Nokia, that miss appears fatal with the company rapidly running out of cash as their smartphone devices fail in the marketplace and margins collapse in the sectors they still dominate.

Research In Motion – the manufacturers of the Blackberry phone – are in the same trap. While their devices were data orientated they were more akin to corporate “feature phones” where they did one or two things well but couldn’t deliver the full features mobile phone users increasingly wanted.

The rise of the iPhone threatened Blackberry’s market and the arrival of the iPad with applications like Evernote killed most of the product’s demand.

Blackberry and Nokia’s decline while companies like Telstra and Vodafone survive – not to mention massive profits of companies like Mexico’s Telefonica – illustrate the value of government licenses to telcos and the breathing space it gives the management of these licensees.

We shouldn’t underestimate though the risks to all these businesses if they don’t adapt.

The high stakes of Lumia

Microsoft and Nokia have a lot riding on their new mobile phone product

Yesterday Nokia and Microsoft gave a preview of their upcoming Lumia 710 and 800 phones for the Australian market. It’s make or break time for both companies in the mobile space.

The phone itself is quite nice – Windows Phone 7.5 runs quite fast with some nice features such as integrated messaging and coupled with good hardware it’s a nice experience. Those I know who use Windows Phones are quite happy with them (I’m an iPhone user myself).

Whether its enough to displace the iPhone and the dozens of Android based handsets on a market where both Nokia and Microsoft have missed opportunities remains to be seen.

The battle is going to be on a number of fronts – at the telco level, in the retail stores and, most importantly, with the perceptions of customers.

Probably the biggest barrier with consumers is the perceived lack of apps, to overcome this Nokia have bundled in their Maps and Drive applications while Microsoft include their Mixed Radio streaming features along with Microsoft Office and XBox integration.

As well the built in services, both parties are playing up their application partners with services like Pizza Hut, Fox Sports and cab service GoCatch. Although all of these are available on the other platforms.

While application matter, the real battle for Nokia and Microsoft is going to be in the retail stores where the challenge shouldn’t be underestimated.

Apple dominate the upper end of the smart phone market and Android is swamping the mid to low end. How Windows Phone devices fit remains to be seen.

In Australia, if they going to find salvation it will be at the tender hands of the telco companies.

The iPhone is constant source of irritation for the telcos as not only do Apple grab most of the profit, but they also “own” the customer.

On the other hand, Android devices are irritating customers who are bewildered by the range of choices and frustrated by inconsistent updates that can leave them stranded with an outdated system.

So the Windows Phone does have an opportunity in the marketplace although one suspects commissions and rebates will be the big driver in getting sales people at the retail coal face to recommend the Microsoft and Nokia alternatives.

Overall though, it’s good to see a viable alternative on the market. For both Microsoft and Nokia the stakes are high with the Lumia range – it could be Nokia’s last shot – so they have plenty of incentives to get the product right.

Microsoft has consistently missed the boat on mobile computing since Windows CE was launched in 1996 while Nokia were blind-sided by the launch of the iPhone in 2007 and have never really recovered.

To make things worse for Nokia, the market for basic mobile phones where they still dominate is under threat from cheap Android based devices. So even the low margin, high volume market isn’t safe.

For both, the Lumia range is critical. 2012 is going to be an interesting year in mobile.