group buying | Paul Wallbank - Communications Professional

Will Google Deals be the next service to join the graveyard?

Google Deals was an attempt to compete with group buying services like Groupon, that experiment has failed and another tombstone for Google’s Graveyard should be on order.

Google’s graveyard of discontinued services is getting crowded, with Google Reader being one of a dozen services to bite the dust in last week’s springclean.

As Google ruthlessly cut services that don’t make the grade, the question is ‘which ones are next’?

Towards the top of the list has to be Google Offers, the group buying service that was set up in a fit of pique after Groupon spurned the search engine giant’s $6 billion acquisition offer.

Google Offers has only rolled out in 45 locations across the United States over the last two years and the deals in recent times have become increasingly desperate, here’s a recent New York deal.

Schmakery’s Cookies may well be fine products, but getting one free cookie isn’t exactly a jump out of your seat experience and it shows just how Google are struggling with this service.

That Google are struggling with Offers isn’t surprising though, the daily deals business relies on sales teams working hard to acquire small business advertisers. Small business is a sector that Google struggles with and running people focused operations is the not the company’s strong point either.

Google’s exit from the group buying market may be good for Groupon and other companies in the sector. The Economist makes the point that Google’s presence in these markets distorts the sector for other incumbents while scaring investors and innovators away.

This is rarely permanent though as companies like Google and Microsoft often suffer a form of corporate Attention Deficit Disorder – Knol is a good example of this and Seth Godin describes what happens “when the 800 pound gorilla arrives”.

Eventually the 800 pound gorilla finds there aren’t a lot of bananas, gets bored and wanders off.

Which is what has happened with RSS feeds and Google reader. Now the little guys can get back to building new products on open RSS platform while Google, along with Facebook and Twitter, try to lock their data away.

For Groupon, the departure of Google from the deals business may not be good news as it could mean smart new competitors enter the field. Either way, there’s some challenges ahead for the owners of group buying services.

You call that a graph?

A good chart can help tell a story, all too often though graphs are designed to mislead.

One way to illustrate a story is with charts. All too often though misleading graphs are used to make an incorrect point.

A Verge story on Groupon shows how to get graphs right – clear, simple and tells the story of how the group buying service’s valuation soared and then plunged while it has never really been profitable.

The vertical axis is the key to getting a graph right, cutting off most of the y-axis’ range is an easy way to mislead people with graphs. In this case you can see just the extent of Groupon’s valuation, profit and loss over the company’s short but troubled history.

Since its inception, The Verge has been showing other sites how to tell stories online, their Scamworld story exposing the world of affiliate internet marketing sets the bar.

Using graphs well is another area where The Verge is showing the rest of the media – including newspapers – how to do things well.

For Groupon, things don’t look so good. As The Verge story points out, the company’s income largely tracked its workforce which grew from 126 at the start of 2010 to over 5,000 by April of 2011. Which illustrates how the business was tied into sales teams generating turnover.

The spectacular growth of Groupon and other copycat businesses couldn’t last and hasn’t. The challenge for Groupon’s managers is to now build a sustainable business.

For investors, those graphs of Groupon’s growth were a compelling story. Which is another reason why we all need to take care with what we think the charts tell us.

Graph image courtesy of Striker_72 on SXC.HU

Silicon lemmings

How many investors blindly following Silicon Valley’s manias will lose their money?

Despite their self proclaimed belief in thinking different, many of today’s internet entrepreneurs tend to travel in flocks and follow the whichever business model is currently being hyped by Silicon Valley’s insiders.

From the original dot com boom in the late 1990s to today, web entrepreneurs and their investors jump onto the bandwagon of the day – it could be online shopping, photography applications, group buying services and taxi apps which are the flavour of the moment.

The latest taxi app is Click-a-Taxi, a European venture which has raised a stingy $1.5 million in second-round funding, which joins a legion of taxi and hire car apps following in the wake of market leader Uber.

Unfortunately for the investors in these taxi and hire car apps, these services are making some pretty powerful enemies.

Around the world gatekeepers such as taxi companies and booking services do their best to keep drivers in poverty while over charging passengers for a poor service.

The new apps disrupt that business model by offering a better service for customers and a better deal for drivers – most importantly it deprives the gatekeepers of their cut.

Predictably, the backlash is fierce with 15 US and Canadian cities proposing to tighten the rules on the use of GPS and smartphone apps.

These backlashes are going to prove expensive to the investors as Silicon Valley entrepreneurs have a habit of under-estimating the power of regulatory barriers. How the current crop of taxi apps deal with this will determine which lemmings go over the cliff* and which ones survive.

One group of Silicon Valley lemmings lying dazed at the bottom of a cliff face are those who invested in the group buying hype of the last two years.

Market leader Groupon is now reportedly moving away from daily deals to ‘always on’ deals, which kills the whole point of group buying sites. Most of the copycats are already dead.

Former Cudo CEO Billy Tucker predicts that in the Australian market – which was flooded by a wave of Groupon imitators in 2010 and 11 – will only have a dozen survivors out of the top 50 listed earlier this year.

Investors in these look-a-like services had a gamble that a greater fool would buy the operation, usually a big corporation run by executives with a fear of missing out. The ones who missed out quietly swallowed their losses and moved on to the next mania – which appears to be taxi apps.

For the taxi applications, the buyers of the apps will probably be the incumbent gatekeepers, who aren’t really fools at all.

It wouldn’t be surprising to find the smarter look-a-like operators are already talking to the taxi companies about an app which will, miraculously, comply with all the requirements of the local regulators.

As for the rest, they’ll do their dough.

What is going to be interesting though is the battle between Uber and the various taxi regulators around the world, particularly in countries where politicians jump to the whims of their business cronies.

*lemmings don’t really throw themselves off cliffs, that myth was invented by the Walt Disney Corporation. Sadly Australian, particularly NSW, politicians favouring ticket clippers and rent seekers is no myth.

Fleeing the group buying market

The air deflates from the group buying bubble

As Apple becomes the highest capitalised stock in US market history, former daily deals site and market darling Groupon continues to sink into misery.

Groupon led the group buying mania of 2011 and its stock market float in November of that year valued the business at 13 billion dollars, ten months later the business has a capitalisation of three billion, wiping out three quarters of its IPO shareholders’ investment.

To make matters worse for the daily deals site the New York Times features a story looking at deal fatigue, where customers tire of the daily emails offering discounted cafe meals or personal training while businesses find the deals just aren’t worth the trouble.

“I pretty much had to take a loan out to cover the loss, or we would have probably had to close,” the Times quotes Dyer Price, owner of Muddy’s Coffehouse in Portland, Oregon. “We will never, ever do it again”

In a straw poll, the Times correspondent visited neighbouring businesses who had similar stories.

The common factor with all the business horror stories surrounding group buying or deal of the day sites is high pressure sales tactics that blind the merchant to the downsides of these offers.

For these services, it’s essential to move through as many deals as possible so salespeople are driven to sign up as many merchants as possible. When you put pressure on sales teams, they tend to behave in ways that aren’t always good for customers.

Most of the customers Groupon attracts – or those of other deal of the day sites – are price sensitive and fussy. Having demanded their deal, most of these customers are not coming back so it may well be that daily deals are the most expensive, disruptive and pointless marketing channel ever invented.

The results of the high pressure tactics are shown in a Venture Beat story which claims Groupon is now threatening to sue unhappy merchants as payments slow and the daily deals struggle to attract customers.

What was always misunderstood during the group buying mania was that Deal Of The Day sites weren’t really technology plays – they were reliant on good sales teams driving deals. The technology being used was incidental to the core business concept.

In this respect, services like Groupon had more in common with the Yellow Pages or multi-level marketing schemes. It was about salespeople delivering orders and taking a percentage off the top. To compare Groupon with Google, Facebook or any tech start up was really missing the point.

This isn’t to say that group buying or deals of the day services don’t have a role in business. For retailers clearing inventory, hotels working around quiet periods or new businesses wanting to get attention in a crowded marketplace, there’s an argument for offering a deal on one of these sites.

For most though it was an expensive and pointless exercise that attracted the picky, price sensitive customers that most business would avoid rather than encourage. That’s the harsh lesson learned by many of the businesses who fell Groupon’s fast talking salesteams.

Scam 2.0

We’re about to see a new wave of business scams

Invoice scams are as old as business itself, no doubt opportunistic cavemen tried to scam other hunters over made up debts and Phoenician traders had to deal with suppliers claiming they’d delivered an extra few hundred Shekels of chickpeas.

Today we see these scams in all forms – imaginary invoices for web registrations, directory inclusions and local listings are just a few we’ve seen. As the web evolves, we’re seeing a new breed of tricks developing.

Online scams can range from things like letters from deposed African presidents promising riches through to aggressive sales folk promising services they can’t deliver. The latter are part of the new breed.

In 2009 Oakland’s East Bay Express alleged the review site Yelp’s sales teams were threatening business with bad reviews if they didn’t pay an advertiser fee. Four years later businesses are claiming this is still happening.

Regardless of the truth of these allegations with Yelp these distatesful sales tactics from online companies are becoming more widespread.

As social media services investors start demanding revenue to back their businesses and group buying sites reach the limits of their growth the sales teams of these organisations are desperately try to find new ways to meet higher targets.

Small and local businesses are the obvious targets of the sales teams, as the web 2.0 business model has trained consumers into expecting not to pay for online services.

Recently a fitness trainer told me how she was hounded into placing a group buying deal with one of the bigger sites; they convinced her that she should offer an 85% discount with the service taking the remaining 15%.

She provided the service for free.

Naturally the 85% off deal was successful, she was rushed off her feet and found herself working for nothing over the next month. Even had the cheap offer resulted in all the customers coming back, it would have taken her a year to recover her losses.

Clearly she should have known better and investigated how group buying sites work and the strategies for using them effectively, but she was subject to high pressure sales techniques that took advantage of her ignorance.

Many online businesses have been giving services away for free as they try to exploit the Silicon Valley greater fool business model. When the venture capital funds dry up they have to find to new ways of paying for their trendy offices with foosball tables and free organic staff meals.

This means more cold calls to business owners promising “marketing opportunities”, “getting to the top of Google” and “getting positive online reviews”.

Over time these sales calls will morph into fake negative reviews and bills for imaginary services rendered as these businesses attract desperate and unscrupulous operators.

For businesses, this means it’s a time to be on guard by making sure any invoices received are properly checked before they are paid and any sales person’s claims are thoroughly checked out before you agree to go ahead with a service.

If you hear of dodgy dealing like what Yelp has been accused of, then try to get the promises in writing and complain to your state’s fair trading department or complain to business agencies. In Australia, the ACCC is the first point of call.

How group buying can work for a business

Online vouchers can be good for a business when planned well

Online deal finding site The Dealmix has an excellent blog post analysing how daily deals can work for a business.

As the Dealmix points out, “daily deals can either hurt or help small businesses, depending on how they’re structured.”

In figuring out whether a deal will work, Dealmix breaks a group buying deal into four elements; expiration, quantity, terms and price;

Pricing the deal

Of all the areas, the pricing is the most critical. Get this wrong and you won’t achieve your objectives and it could be very quickly drive you out of business.

The Dealmix recommends two ways of pricing an offer – by making a net profit on the deal or structuring it a way that the customer’s total spend offsets the cost of the offer.

Using Average Customer Spend, or ACS, to estimate how much a customer will spend is problematic with specials and group buying deals as the takers are not going to be your average customers.

It’s likely group buying customers are going to be far less open with their wallets than your regulars. Trying to upsell price conscious is probably what brings cafes and restaurants unstuck with many of these deals.

Both methods rely on knowing the Cost Of Goods Sold and the Average Customer Spend. Notable in the stories of group buying disasters is just how many business owners don’t understand these basics.

If you don’t know what the total cost is to your business in providing the goods or services, you should be talking to an accountant before going near these deals.

Also keep in mind the group buying service is going to take their cut which will be between 15 and 100% depending on the size and nature of the deal. For many businesses the commission is a deal breaker.

Quantity

The biggest complaint from customers about group buying offers is the deals are booked out for months – it’s also how service businesses find themselves overwhelmed by the response to a keenly priced offer.

Again, before launching a group buying offer, understand the spare capacity of your business and ensure there is a maximum limit to the number of deals available – as The Dealmix points out, a sold out deal is a great marketing tool.

Terms

Conditions are probably the trickiest; put in too many gotchas and you’ll scare customers away or find yourself fighting with the 90% of clients who buy the deal without reading the T&Cs.

You can guarantee some of those fights will end up being public and it’s unlikely your business will win the public relations battle. This is not your business objective.

Make sure key terms like what days the deal is available on, maximum limits, types of service are reasonable and clearly defined at the time of the offer.

Expiration

When the deal expires is the key condition, it’s madness offering deals that never expires as they can come back to haunt you for years and it may even affect the resale value of your business.

The Dealmix suggests not restricting it to a month as you’ll be overwhelmed with customers while leaving it too long will dilute the value and any measurements.

Ideally the deal will last three to six months, which is another reason for understanding your business’ capacity at various times of the year.

Timing the expiry is important to, as The Dealmix suggests, the deal shouldn’t finish on a busy day and equally you should consider when your business is the quietest. If things are slow during school holidays, summer or Christmas then that might be the time you want to have the last minute rush of redemptions happening.

Business Planning

Probably the most important aspect of a group buying deal is how does it fit into your business objectives. Are you intending to build a customer base, contact list, pubicise your business, clear stock or give sales a boost? Those objectives are going to determine how you structure the offer.

As The Dealmix’s diagram shows, group buying deals are complex and the merchant has to give some thought on getting the offer right. Those business who do get the mix right can do very well from a well thought out online offer.

Like all business tools, group buying sites can be really useful when done well. The key is understanding what you’re doing with that tool.

We discuss group buying and building your own campaign in e-business, Seven Steps to Online Success. If you need help or advice in building an offer, Netsmarts can help you.

What business can learn from Groupon

How can businesses use the web to grow like the group buying companies?

Groupon, pioneer of group buying and one the fastest growing companies in history, will have its launch on the stock markets today with an initial public offering (IPO) that’s values the business at thirteen billion dollars, more double the $6bn that Google offered for the three year old company last year.

A recent Business Insider profile of Groupon had some fascinating insights on this unique company and its growth, there’s a number of lessons that most business owners, entrepreneurs and managers can take from this company’s dramatic growth and market leadership regardless of the sector they operate in.

Apply tech to your business

Many people make the mistake that Groupon is tech startup when it’s actually a sales operation.

Groupon’s business model isn’t really new, what they have done is applied various web technologies to the directory and voucher shopping industries and come up with a 21st Century way of doing things.

Bringing together different modern tools like social media, cloud computing, local search and the mobile web makes businesses more flexible and quick to develop new market opportunities.

Prepare for quick changes

Groupon was born out of another business – The Point. As The Point steadily died, Andrew Mason and his mentor Eric Lefkofsky decided to try something different and Groupon was born.

This ability to change focus quickly – often called “pivoting” – is essential in changing markets. In volatile times like today where today’s business conditions can’t be taken for granted we have to be prepared for rapid changes.

Fortunately the cost and time to changes your business focus has dropped dramatically with digital and online tools, which is another reason to embrace tech.

Get a good business mentor

Eric Lefkofsky bought maturity and a perspective to Groupon’s young leadership, having a different and more experienced view of the business helped it develop and grab the opportunity.

An experienced business mentor can be worth their weight in gold.

Back a good idea

In Nicholas Carson’s Business Insider profile he describes Andrew Mason role at Eric Lefkofski’s business before The Point as “an intern, ‘kind of squatting in their offices'”. Lefkofski was prepared to back the geeky kid camping on his premises.

Putting your prejudices and judgements on the shelf to back good ideas, particularly those that don’t cost much to execute, is one way to find where the opportunities lie.

Tell your business story

Regardless of what you think of Groupon’s claims, they tell a very good story which has lead to their amazing growth and the development of the group buying industry.

Being able to tell your story, in your terms, is one of the great advantages the web, local search and social media deliver. There’s no reason why your business shouldn’t be dominating the local market in whatever field you work in.

Regardless of what your business does, it can benefit from applying the online tools that are available to all of us.

We may not be the next Groupon but the web gives us the opportunity to build our business to take advantage of the 21st Century. It’s worthwhile understanding the new tools at our fingertips.

Does revenue solve all problems?

Do profitable businesses have no problems?

According to Eric Schmit, Google’s Executive Chairman, “Revenue solves all problems.” Is that really so?

The truth is it doesn’t. Revenue can solve some problems, while creating others and having plenty of cash coming in may even cover over existing issues that can be ignored while times are good.

Plenty of governments have found themselves unsuck after rich revenues allowed them to ignore problems in their own society, the Dutch Disease – where a country’s income rises rapidly because one industry booms and crowds the others out – is one example of revenue causing problems. Local Chinese governments are currently dealing with problems bought around by their massive income from selling land.

In business, owners and managers sometimes find themselves in trouble because they can’t manage the demand that comes with the revenue a growing enterprise attracts.

Sometimes, the revenue’s fine but there’s no profit. I can earn a lot of money selling bottles of beer for ten cents when everyone else is charging two dollars, but the fact the wholesale price is one dollar means I’m going to grow broke quickly unless I can impress a dumb corporation with my massive customer growth and get them to buy me out.

The group buying model tends to combine two of the above problems – participating businesses struggle with the demand they generate while the discounts they are giving almost certainly guarantees they are not making a profit on the deal.

So revenue doesn’t solve all problems, even the most profitable business – legal or not – has its own unique set of problems.

Life’s easier when your business is profitable, but problems will never go away. Even the good life has problems; deal with it.

Group buying sites explained

Are big Internet discounts right for you or your business?

Fancy half price seafood dinners, deeply discounted electrical goods or 80% off personal fitness training? Thousands of people who’ve signed up for group buying websites certainly do and hundreds of businesses are prepared to make big discounts to attract those customers.

What are these services? Are they worthwhile and how do the businesses make money from them? Should customers be wary of advertised big savings and are merchants cutting their throats when they enter the world of deep discounting?

What are group buying websites?

The idea behind group buying sites is that merchants will offer cheap deals to take advantage of bulk sales, clear inventory or as loss leaders to attract new business. The products offered can be anything from a cheap haircut through to discounted whitegoods or a cheap meal.

Customers subscribe to the group buying websites and receive a daily email detailing the deals in their areas. If they like an offer, they can choose to be part of it and if it goes ahead, their credit will be debited and they’ll receive a voucher for the deal.

The group buying websites usually approach businesses to take part. For the privilege of having their businesses featured, the website takes between 20 and 100% of the offer price as commission.

What are the consumer benefits?

Naturally the main attraction for consumers are the cheap deals on offer. Some businesses are offering 80% off their list prices for products, so there can be substantial savings to be made.

There’s also the opportunity to try out products or outlets you wouldn’t normally try for instance you might not usually be interested in Zumba classes, canoe hire or replacing your TV at normal prices but an 50% discount could tweak your attention.

Are there risks for the consumer?

There’s no such thing as a free lunch so there are a number of risks when using a group buying site.

Impulse buying is probably the biggest risk, if you’re a sucker for a deal then these sites will love you. It’s an opportunity to sign up for a lot of things you don’t really need, probably will never have used and maybe can’t even afford, but fact you saved 80% makes you feel good.

There’s also the risk you’re not really getting the full discount. A lot of canny merchants inflate the list price to make the amount off look greater. Many also reduce the size or quality of the discounted product to recover their margins.

A big risk is that you may never get to use your voucher. Either you’ll forget about the voucher you received or the merchant is so overwhelmed by the offer’s response that they can never get around to catering for all their people who took them up.

Finally there’s the spam factor. Many merchants see a group buying offer as an opportunity to build their mailing lists, so you may find yourself being spammed for fitness classes and restaurant offers for a long time after you take up a deal.

Business Benefits

These sites wouldn’t have taken off if there weren’t businesses to advertise on them and hundreds of merchants have taken up the opportunity. So there are clear benefits for the outlets that use these services.

The most obvious one is they get to promote their businesses. All of these sites claim to have subscribers numbering in the hundreds of thousands, so it’s an opportunity to get your products in front of a large audience.

Clearing excess capacity has been one of the main drivers for these sites in the United States where many businesses have found themselves with too much inventory or staff sitting around. These sites are a great way of clearing inventory or smoothing demand cycles.

Business downsides

The first problem is that excess stock. A business can’t afford to be carrying stock that requires big discounts to clear, if these offers become a regular feature then your business is in trouble.

Even if your business isn’t in trouble, these offers risk devaluing your brand. As the major retailers have found, offering frequent discounts trains your customers to expect lower prices.

Offering these bargains may alienate existing clients. Those customers who are prepared to pay full price aren’t only going to be irritated to find they could have got your products cheaper, but may also be unhappy with your business being overwhelmed by cheaper, price conscious clients.

Those price sensitive shoppers aren’t really your customers either; they are loyal to the buying platform and cheap deals, so if your competitors have an offer later on another platform, those customers will go there. There’s a lot of work to be done converting these bargain hunters into repeat clients.

One of the most misunderstood parts of group buying sites is the commission structure, most of the services charge a commission of between 20 and 50% – with some going up to 100% – on the advertised price, so that 50% discount to the customer is actually 60 to 75% off the merchant’s selling price. This can be a massive hit to a business’ profit.

Is group buying for you?

For businesses group buying sites can be a good idea if they are used as a part of a well thought out marketing strategy or to clear occasional excess stock. But they shouldn’t be seen as a quick way to attract new customers.

Customers are the big winners from group buying sites, as it’s the opportunity to pick up some great deals. But users have to use a bit of judgement instead of just jumping for the best looking deals.

It’s an old saying, but if anything looks to be too good to be true then it probably is. In the Internet age, that saying is probably truer than ever. Group buying sites can be good for both businesses and customers, but watch the wallet.